How Meteum Uses Machine Learning to Create Seasonal Forecasts
While most services provide weather data for the next 10–14 days, operational planning in a variety of industries requires insights into weather patterns beyond this limit — for the next few months. For instance, agricultural companies and cooperatives need to know when seeding can be started and what potential risks they may face during the growing season. Retailers wish to plan the inventory efficiently and avoid overstocking or running out of stock for their seasonal offers. Energy companies need to model the potential demand to adjust the supply. And so on.
The use of historical weather data, such as five- to ten-year averages, is becoming a less reliable choice due to climate change and increased weather variability. That is why we decided to apply our machine learning capabilities to offer actionable insights for weather-sensitive operations and business scenarios a few months in advance.
Why Seasonal Forecasts Are Game-Changers for Different Industries
Meteum’s seasonal forecasts offer accurate and valuable weather insights for a range of use cases. The forecasts include:
- 15+ weather parameters, including anomalies such as sudden temperature changes or abnormal precipitation volumes
- Probability values for the above weather insights
The product has three types of temporal resolution:
- Seasonal (typically a 3-month period)
- Monthly
- Weekly
Monthly and seasonal data offer a high-level overview of major trends and risks and help to understand the overall weather impact for the upcoming season. Weekly data can be used to plan windows for specific operations or to prepare for weather-related events.
Meteum technology of seasonal forecasting predicts over 15 most critical parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction and speed, cloud cover, and others. We’re also planning to add snow cover and solar radiation levels to the list in the near future. Data-rich seasonal forecasting provides a competitive advantage for businesses in a variety of industries:
- Agronomists and farmers can use seasonal forecasts to determine the best time for seeding and harvesting, as well as to prepare for dry or cold seasons.
- Hypermarkets and DIY stores use these insights to pre-order and supply seasonal products in advance to ensure they meet consumer demand during the upcoming season.
- The travel and outdoor activity industries (e.g. beach resorts, hotels, nature parks, theme parks, and ski resorts) can better prepare for the beginning of the high season, and plan its overall length and potential disruptions.
- Energy and utility companies can also use seasonal forecasts to plan for energy demand and adjust the supply accordingly.
Contact us to discuss how the seasonal forecast can help your business to do better operations planning and resource allocation, to make smarter decisions in inventory and workforce management.
How Does Seasonal Forecasting Work?
At Meteum, we utilize ML-processed ensembles to generate highly reliable forecasts. We collect weather data from the leading providers, including ECMWF, UKMO, Météo-France, DWD, CMCC, NCEP, JMA, and ECCC. These providers operate nine ensembles with approximately 500 base models.
Our technology processes the output of these nine ensembles and 500 base models to generate a unified forecast, i.e a “super ensemble.” We then adjust the projections with both ML and historical data to further refine the accuracy of the seasonal forecast. As a result, the accuracy and reliability of our forecast surpass that of any individual model, to say nothing about the accuracy of the forecasts based on historical average climate values.
You can learn more about the logic and technology behind ML-driven weather forecasting in one of our previous articles:
Case Study: Agricultural Company
One of our customers in the agricultural sector operates farmlands in regions with different weather patterns and climate conditions. Their agronomists required advanced knowledge about potential weather risks, such as sudden temperature drops or rises, for all locations for the whole crop season. This information was crucial to their day-to-day operations, allowing them to effectively plan their seeding, fertilization, crop protection, and harvesting activities.
Meteum provided a comprehensive forecast for 2022 with a monthly resolution and a six-month projection. This information allowed the customer to:
- Secure necessary resources at more stable prices and closer to their farms, avoiding the surge risks in the area
- Better predict the yields
- Plan fertilization and crop protection activities more efficiently
The use of seasonal forecasts contributed to an overall improvement of operations, and ultimately to the growth of the agricultural business’s efficiency.
Seasonal forecasts provide valuable information about trends for the most popular weather parameters and the probability of extreme weather events, which are critical for businesses with high impact from seasonal weather factors.
Let’s discuss how to make seasonal forecasting work for your business and how the Meteum technology can provide the most reliable insights tailored to your case. Contact us and book a meeting with your seasonal forecasting expert.
