Random Niche Thoughts, Every NBA Team 08/09/16

Atlanta Hawks:

• Rebounding is pretty useful in basketball so Howard might be surprisingly big plus.
• Splitter is awesome. Howard 30 minutes + Splitter 18 minutes would be nice combo to keep both healthy, in rhythm and Hawks lineups always in the “plus”.
• Not really able to quantify this, since Schröder had nice +/- numbers last year, but he really torpedoes possessions which could be a bigger problem for offense than most think. I don’t believe in that anti-Westbrook “true point guard” bullshit, but there’s something about him destroying the nice rhythm/flow of the Hawks’ offense that scares me.

Boston Celtics:

• Think Horford isn’t such a big addition. He slipped in some very small ways last year that may continue. Underrated by general NBA fan, probably a bit overrated by NBA nerds.
• Core is basically in their primes. Next-Gen doesn’t look super awesome (Smart, Brown etc.), so it’s interesting where it all goes.
• I’ll be checking the DREB% numbers when the season starts. Were 24th last season.

Brooklyn Nets:

• I watch a ton of games (1/3 of the NBA season basically) from every team, but I have to admit I skipped Brooklyn post-December. I just couldn’t do it. Don’t love the NBA that much.

Charlotte Hornets:

• Batum had his best season, wonder how he’ll play next year. Williams could fall off a cliff, who knows really? Not a Kaminsky guy at all.
• Cody Zeller is underrated defensively. I think he’s really smart, moves well side ways.
• MKG is back. So those lineups will definitely be at the worst +6.3 or so, which is great.

Chicago Bulls:

• The typical NBA nerd jargon here: Rondo’s defense blaah blaah. Floor spacing blaah blaah. Butler should be primary blaah blaah.
• Can Portis and Felicio hit the three???!! That is the question.

Cleveland Cavaliers:

• Nothing interesting to add. LeBron minutes, back up point guard etc.

Dallas Mavericks:

• The defense should be pretty good with Bogut, Barnes and Matthews. Barnes makes for some nice small-ball units.
• Barnes could shoot like 35% for 4 months.
• Curry, Barea, Williams, Harris. That’s a Rick Carlisle “make them all better” foursome if I ever saw one.

Denver Nuggets:

• Took me a while to really get on the Gary Harris train, but now I’m there.
• I like Darrell Arthur. Big fan of his game for a while now. Nice versatile back up big.
• Gallinari had a 58.2 TS%. With the way he plays that’s a miracle.

Detroit Pistons:

• Pay them now and you won’t have to think about Free Agency and can just focus on team getting better..
• .. unless you aren’t happy with the rotation guys and have to pay another free agent $8–10 million next summer.
• I don’t think ceiling is particularly high long-term. Maybe KCP, Johnson angle makes unexpected leap at some point to make them awesome.

Golden State Warriors:

• Next.

Houston Rockets:

• #Defense
• Offense will be awesome, but I’m not sure D’Antoni really makes difference. Seems to me rest of the NBA has gotten pretty smart in the past few years.

Indiana Pacers:

• Teague + Ellis backcourt seems suboptimal. Teague shot 40.0% percent from three, but 26.9% from 16-feet to 3. Especially not a volume-taker kind of guy.
• For all the Myles Turner hype going on during the summer, he’s probably still under hyped. Love everything about his game. Superbly skilled. I don’t think stretching to 3 is super necessary, though if it happens easily then fine.

Los Angeles Clippers:

• Chris Paul is going to start ageing any day now. He has to.
• Same for J.J. Redick.
• Griffin may be past his peak. Jordan is right at it. If not this year, by next season one of them will start slipping in all likelihood.

Los Angeles Lakers:

• Completely changed my mind about Russell. I remember in summer league he looked so slow and couldn’t finish anything. Now, I’m actually a pretty big fan. Moved better and some of his PnR reads were brilliant.
• Not a Nance guy.

Memphis Grizzlies:

• Team “f*** net rating”. Again the projections are pointing to like 41 wins. Eventually the projections are right.
• Parsons is a wonderful fit though, really need his ball-handling and passing.

Miami Heat:

• Ranked 25th in pace. Should rank a lot higher. Hopefully Dragic can still run a team like that. Could be fun.
• Winslow’s first game was absolutely wonderful. Probably best 7-point, 2-rebound (or whatever it was) performance I’ve seen. Has he become overhyped? Not at power forward.

Milwaukee Bucks:

• MCW is so getting benched for two weeks while Delly shoots 42% from 3. Delly will finish games always.
• Middleton’s defense wasn’t that good last season, hopefully gets better again.

Minnesota Timberwolves:

• Ranked 11th on offense and 27th in defense. Next season, same offense and league average defense would equal 45 wins. Why not slightly better?
• This should really start being the year where Wiggins’ potential starts translating to some sweet ass adjusted plus-minus numbers. Not a disaster if not great, but positive signs should be there.

New Orleans Pelicans:

• Davis taking the next step defensively would be wonderful, very disappointing on that end.
• If I squint real hard I can see the outlines of a pretty sparky small-ball lineup with Solomon Hill at PF. Can’t figure out what 5-man combo would be that though.

New York Knicks:

• Changed my mind about Derrick Rose trade. Good deal for Knicks.
• I’ll bet you $20 in Bitcoin that Courtney Lee will be in the top-2 players on the Knicks in On/Off-court differential among rotation players.
• Used to be an O’Quinn fan, changed my mind.

Oklahoma City Thunder:

• Oladipo gets back cut more than you would think. Him reaching defensive potential would be much needed.
• Adams-Roberson-Morrow-Oladipo-Westbrook is some pretty fine small-ball action. If Morrow can stay on the court + Oladipo can defend + Roberson is as good on bigs as I think, this works.
• Payne is excellent at navigating screens. Particularly off-ball. Seriously, look at that dude, he’s a beast. No one ever hits him.

Orlando Magic:

• I think everyone is complaining about Aaron Gordon being screwed out of position to succeed at PF
• We aren’t complaining enough.
• RIP dream lineup of Vucevic (Biyombo?!?!)-Gordon-Hezonja/Fournier-Fournier/Oladipo-Payton.

Philadelphia 76ers:

• I’m a Noel guy. If you can get Noel for one first rounder, low in the lottery, do it now.
• I wonder what the weirdest lineup that Sixers fans can justify to themselves will be? And what super-big lineup will actually play minutes? Embiid-Noel-Saric-Henderson-Simmons???

Phoenix Suns:

• Healthy Eric Bledsoe is sneakily one of my favorite players to watch.
• Booker will shoot better this season, considering he might actually get an open shot more than once every two weeks.

Sacramento Kings:

• Nothing interesting to add.

San Antonio Spurs:

• Not an Aldridge guy. 0.80 points per shot on spot-ups or something like that.
• Danny Green, does he know how to shoot this year? My odds would be around 71% for a 38% season, 54% for a 40% season.

Utah Jazz:

• Pick for #1 ranked defense this season. If Exum is clear plus player in the advanced stats, the Jazz will win 57-games.
• Quin Snyder has a beautiful offense. Probably my favorite underrated coach right now. Too bad he’ll become mainstream next season :/.

Washington Wizards:

• Bradley Beal could actually take it to the basket every once in a while on pick and rolls. I like Beal overall, just a tiny point.