Your Lifetime Risk of Severe Long-Covid Is Likely <5%
What data from the U.K., Sweden, Germany, and Denmark show
If you are young and healthy, your risk of severe or fatal Covid-19 is minuscule. Even so, one concern remains: long-Covid or the post-Covid-19 syndrome, characterized by having at least one persistent symptom for at least 3 months after Covid-19, not explainable by alternative diagnosis.
But how worried should we be about the severity of long-Covid?
Previously in “Current Long-COVID Statistics Are Missing the Background Prevalence,” I described that even before Covid-19 emerged, 10–30% of the general population typically lived with symptoms similar to long-Covid, such as fatigue, breathlessness, headache, and sleep disturbance. So, minus the background prevalence, the true prevalence of long-Covid is likely:
- one or two in ten after symptomatic Covid-19;
- one or two in five after severe Covid-19;
- close to zero in ten after asymptomatic Covid-19.
Some factors further modify such prevalence: more severe Covid-19, female sex, pre-existing diseases, and older age increase the risk of long-Covid, whereas vaccination decreases the risk.
