Contested Conventions? A TV Political Drama or Real Life 2016?
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Contested conventions: as seen on The West Wing and House of Cards.
We’ve seen them on our favorite political dramas on TV, in The West Wing when Congressman Santos refuses to drop out despite his party pressuring him to do so, and in House of Cards when President Frank Underwood tells the DNC he wanted to give the people a show. And now we may see it in real life.
First: What the heck is a contested convention?
Usually, there is one presidential candidate that has separated him or herself from the pack and won enough delegates during the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination at the party convention. Contested conventions occur when there isn’t one candidate that has secured the majority of the delegates leading into the party convention. In this case, a party’s nominee will be voted for by the delegates who attend the convention via a series of ballots. In most presidential election years, a convention is just a rally for party officials and delegates to rally for their nominee. When it’s a contested convention, this meeting actually makes a difference in choosing the eventual nominee.
Republicans have a total of 2,472 delegates. For one of our candidates to take the cake, he needs to win 1,237 delegates — half of the total plus one.
The last time this happened for Republicans was 1948. Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey with his win on the third ballot. The Democrats had their last contested convention just four years later in 1952 when they nominated Adlai Stevenson.
So… is this really going to happen in 2016?
Right now, unclear. Anti-Trumpeters say yes, it could. If the primary ends and there is no candidate holding a delegate majority, delegates can decide at this summer’s convention. And it could be anyone’s game, if we get past the first ballot.
And that first ballot is still looking good for Trump.
Delegates are bound to vote for a specific candidate on the first ballot — based on election results from their home state. So with Trump’s wins, he has a pretty large number of delegates that are bound to vote for him. There are also a number of delegates bound to the remaining candidates: Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio. (If a delegate doesn’t stick to their candidate? Party rules say the delegate’s vote is null and void.)
There are, however, some unbound delegates coming into the convention. Some states don’t bind delegates to vote for a specific candidate, and state party chairs/RNC committee members get to serve as delegates as well.
If delegates come together and team up to stop Trump from reaching 1,237 in the first ballot count…another candidate has a chance.
Most state parties have their own rules about how many times a delegate is bound to voting for their candidate. Usually, it’s two, and by the third ballot, most delegates are released and free to vote for whoever they choose, whether that be personal preference or keeping to their original candidate to whom they were bound.
This reminds me of Iowa’s democratic caucus, because at this point, delegates can persuade other delegates to switch to their candidate and it can get a little chaotic. This goes on and on and on…until a candidate finally hits the magic number 1,237.
Oh, there’s also that eight state rule (Rule 40). This is a temporary rule from the 2012 convention that dictates only candidates who have won a majority of delegates from EIGHT STATES can run for president. The Donald is only two states away from hitting the mark, having won in six states. Should he nab those final two? …Bye Kasich. Bye Rubio. Bye Cruz.
All that said — the RNC can change these rules any time between now and the big party, so who knows what will happen.
So are we going to have a crazy, chaotic party this summer when the RNC convention takes place in Cleveland? Or is it going to be the convention as usual?
I’m not even going to make a prediction, because as we’ve learned, when Trump is involved, no one can predict what will happen.
Guess we will just have to wait and see if party officials can block Trump and get the candidate they want, or if Republicans need to resign to the fact that it’s either Donald…or Hillary.
