How Many Tickets Out of Iowa?
We often say there are three tickets out of Iowa as presidential candidates move from the Iowa Caucuses to the New Hampshire primary. The idea is that the top three finishers have the best chance to stay viable in the race for their party’s nomination. That may change for both parties in the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.
The notion of three tickets out of Iowa might surprise some people. For a variety of reasons, some have complaints about the Iowa Caucuses. One of those complaints, is that the Caucuses don’t do very well in terms of picking the party’s nominee or the general election winner. (Even some in fellow early state New Hampshire occasionally get into the act. More than once I’ve heard someone from New Hampshire use the line, “Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.” It’s a cute line, but I once pointed out to a New Hampshire legislator that the last two presidents won the Iowa Caucuses and lost the New Hampshire primary.) The odd thing about complaining that Iowa doesn’t do well picking nominees is that it is often made by the same people who think Iowa is too influential in the presidential selection process as it is. If the winners of the Iowa Caucuses were even more likely to be their party’s nominees there would be even more to complain about!
As much as Iowans would like their picks to be the nominees and general election winners we also understand that really isn’t the purpose of the Iowa Caucuses. Instead, to borrow a line I heard from someone else (and have used frequently), the purpose of the Caucuses is to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The contenders are those who finish in the top three. The pretenders are those who don’t. With only one exception for each party, the eventual nominee has finished in the top three in every Iowa Caucus since 1972. (The exception for Republicans was in 2008 when McCain didn’t compete in Iowa and finished fourth. The exception for Democrats was in 1992 when Iowa’s Senator Harkin ran, most Democrats didn’t put much effort into Iowa, and Clinton finished fourth.)
Despite the three tickets tradition, the 2016 Iowa Caucuses will be different for both parties.
For the Democrats, there are only three candidates (Clinton, Sanders, and O’Malley) so it would seem that each would get a ticket out of Iowa. I think, however, that there is really only one ticket out of Iowa for these three candidates. O’Malley has some enthusiastic followers, but is so far behind in the polls that Clinton would need to experience a monumental failure of some sort for him to have a chance of even finishing second. I suspect he’ll finish a distant third, but even a second place finish behind Clinton won’t do much good for him given her superior experience and support.
Sanders has been doing well and has enjoyed a surge or two, but hasn’t been able to pass Clinton in national polls. He’s done well in some New Hampshire polls, but many chalk this up to his being from neighboring Vermont. A New Hampshire win for Sanders will be discounted because it’s expected, so it won’t do all that much for him going into South Carolina. That could change if Sanders were to win in Iowa. An Iowa win coupled with one in New Hampshire might give him momentum for later states. I don’t think it would be enough to get him to the nomination, but it would at least make him a more serious contender to Clinton.
For Clinton, a win in Iowa will pretty much put her on the path to the Democrats’ nomination. She could lose New Hampshire to Sanders and it wouldn’t affect her ability to win South Carolina or later states. Thus, if Clinton wins Iowa the race is basically over. If Sanders wins Iowa he has a bit more of a chance, even if it’s still low. Sorry O’Malley fans, I can’t picture him having a chance to win Iowa at this point.
Turning to the Republicans, they could have as many as five or six tickets out of Iowa. This is due to the unusually large field of GOP candidates. Not all the candidates are running a strong campaign, and some are not competing hard in Iowa, but if there are 10 or more candidates still in the race come February 1 the top half of the finishers could be sufficiently well-positioned to get a second look by voters in New Hampshire and beyond.
We often see a fair amount of movement in the polls just before the Caucuses. That was certainly the case in 2012, but that had a lot to do with the dynamics of that particular race. (This is where I shamelessly plug my book, Riding the Caucus Rollercoaster, available on Amazon.com, which chronicles the Republican 2012 Caucus race.) We should still see some movement in this race, but candidates haven’t surged and fallen back as much as they did for the 2012 race.
Right now there seems to be roughly three tiers in the Iowa GOP race. Trump and Carson are still ahead, though some still expect one or both to fade or at least not do well in terms of actually having their supporters turn out on Caucus Night. Cruz and Rubio are currently enjoying a surge and have put a bit of separation between themselves and the rest of the field, even if still below Trump and Carson. Then there’s everyone else. Some in the third tier like Bush and Christie are working to increase their Iowa ground game. Huckabee and Santorum are in the third tier, but have experience in running a winning Caucus campaign. Paul may not have the same level of enthusiastic supporters as his father did, but they are still well organized and likely to turn out for him. If Trump and Carson fade, and one or two in the third tier surge, we could see as many as six candidates in a very tight bunch. It’s still better to win than not, but a tight group at the top would give several candidates the ability to make a reasonable case for declaring success, if not victory, and moving on to New Hampshire.
As I write this there are nine weeks until the Iowa Caucuses. That’s still a lot of time for candidates to work on their ground game and shore up their support. We’ve seen significant movement even just days before Caucus Night, though each race has its own character. Any Republican candidates still in the race on January 1 will likely stay at least through the Caucuses. If 10 or more still in the race, we could see a close and very interesting Caucus Night.
