A little over a week ago, Republicans cast their ballots for president in the first-in-the-south primary, and the results of last Saturday’s primary have fundamentally changed the race for President. Trump’s victory in South Carolina cemented his status as a national frontrunner. Although Marco Rubio had a stronger than expected showing in the state and Ted Cruz remained competitive, Trump has the best chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Barring a major shift in support, it seems likely that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will face off in November.
After a strong performance in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire, many Republicans were unsure if the New York businessman would appeal to Southern voters. As Trump has voiced strong support of Planned Parenthood, same sex couples and abortion rights, some believed that conservative voters would be wary of his newfound embrace of faith and convictions. Any notion that held that Trump would not be competitive in the South has now been immediately dismissed, for the real estate magnate has exceeded already high expectations. Before and immediately after his win in the Palmetto State, Trump has begun to amass support across the South, especially in the Deep South. Combined with his strong support with ‘moderate’ voters, Trump is in an enviable position to end the nomination fight quickly and decisively in March.
While there has been much ado about ‘must-win’ states for each candidate, never has there been a must win state yet this cycle quite like Texas. After Ted Cruz’s third consecutive third place finish, he needs a strong performance in the SEC primary states in order to restart his struggling campaign. By setting expectations high in the first in the south contest after the Iowa Caucuses, Cruz underperformed due to a failure to respond adequately to sustained attacks on him by both Trump and Rubio. Although Southern states were expected to be Senator Cruz’s firewall in the SEC Primary, Trump has now taken the lead in many of these states; however, of most concern to the Cruz campaign, Senator Rubio is also projected to finish far more strongly in the South than was forecasted before the South Carolina Primary. Although certainly competing for survival in the South and especially his home state, barring a strong performance on Tuesday, his rationale for staying in the race may be called into question.
Marco Rubio’s second place showing in South Carolina after a dismal debate performance in New Hampshire has demonstrated that he is the candidate that is now Trump’s main opposition for the Republican nomination. After besting Cruz in two states where he was expected to perform (according to the Rubio’s camp), Senator Rubio is now the candidate with the best chance of defeating Donald Trump by inheriting supporters of other candidates who drop out. By coalescing support of former rivals and the party base, Rubio may be the only candidate currently running with the ability to mass the support necessary in order to stop Donald Trump from winning the nomination outright. That was the general consensus of the Establishment Republicans prior to Governor Christie’s endorsement of Donald Trump on Friday.
As the Republican field has been reduced to five contenders, only three of these candidates have any conceivable path forward. Both fans of Rubio and Trump have confidence in their candidate’s respective chances in contests moving forward, the race continues to muddle as Ted Cruz tries to regain his footing in the race.
