Rubio Best Chance to Overtake Trump, Defeat Hillary
By: Scott Jennings
The 2016 presidential election will be the first featuring voters who don’t remember 9–11, folks who were then three-to-six years old who did not comprehend the shock, anger, and tears as the second plane hit the World Trade Center. Heck, just seven years later in 2008 many voters had forgotten the lessons of 9–11 by voting for Barack Obama, who has been a foreign policy disaster.
Almost fifteen years later, the threat of Islamic terrorism is multiplying. While President George W. Bush kept our homeland safe after 9–11, a pullback of American leadership during the Obama Administration has emboldened radical Islamic terrorists, who, in addition to killing people themselves, inspire others like the shooters in San Bernardino to commit horrific acts against freedom loving people everywhere.
The next president must be willing to accept the world as it is — a place filled with radical jihadists who surely laugh when Obama refuses to call them what they are. That person must be informed and have the judgment to forge the international alliances necessary to defeat this dangerous enemy.
Following South Carolina, it is increasingly possible that the Republican Party could nominate Donald Trump, who once said he receives his foreign policy advice by watching “the shows” on Sunday morning. What else would you expect from a reality TV star-come-presidential candidate? TV created him, and TV advises him. Judge Judy for Supreme Court, anyone?
After three nominating contests, there are three general spheres in play: Trump’s, which he occupies alone; the Cruz sphere, which he occupies with Ben Carson; and the Rubio/Bush/Kasich sphere, which, with Jeb Bush’s exit, Marco Rubio controls but needs to consolidate further.
Donald Trump’s sphere isn’t going anywhere. No opposition research will shake loose Trump’s core voters; indeed, his foreign policy statements at the South Carolina debate would have seemed extreme at a Code Pink rally, yet it mattered not to his people.
In the first three GOP contests, (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina), Trump received about 32 percent of the 1.2 million votes cast. His Real Clear Politics national polling average on February 22 was 34 percent. The Trump Sphere currently occupies one-third of the GOP, not enough to win the nomination if the field narrows soon.
The Cruz/Carson sphere needs to consolidate immediately to give it a chance. Cruz has won about 21 percent of all votes, and his national polling average is 20.6 percent; Carson has won 6.4 percent of all votes, and his national polling average is 6.6 percent. If most of Carson’s voters (primarily evangelical Tea Partiers) choose Cruz once their man hangs it up, then Cruz could reasonably control about one-quarter (or slightly more) of the GOP. One caveat: Trump performed better than expected with evangelicals in South Carolina; Cruz needs to keep Carson’s voters on the reservation, something that could be difficult given the “dirty tricks” story after Iowa.
The Rubio/Bush/Kasich sphere is the largest but needs to consolidate further. Rubio has received 19.8 percent of all votes, and his national polling average is 16 percent. Bush received 7.8 percent of all votes against a national polling average of 5.4 percent. Kasich has received 8.7 percent of all votes, about what his national polling average is. Let’s assume that Rubio and Kasich split most of Bush’s share, acknowledging that some could leak to the other two. That leaves the Rubio/Kasich sphere occupying as much as 40 percent of the GOP, the largest of the three.
Kasich is running a campaign designed to force a contested convention. Between March 1 and 15, there are 27 contests. Kasich is competitive in just five to seven of them (Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio are the biggest), whereas Rubio is competitive everywhere. Rubio could use those delegates to win the nomination; Kasich just wants convention currency. Kasich, Ohio’s governor but a Pennsylvania native, may not have filed enough signatures in his birth state to appear on the ballot, according to sources in the Keystone State. He’s simply not running a national campaign.
There are three real candidates left. Trump and Cruz are far more likely to lose a general election than Rubio. The true path to a GOP victory is for Kasich to drop out, allowing for a consolidation behind Rubio. Unlike Cruz, Rubio has consistently voted to strengthen our military and intelligence capabilities. Far beyond Trump, Rubio has demonstrated the rhetoric, record, policy command and judgment to deal with the threats posed by radical Islamic jihadists.
If Trump is running against a fractured field, he will continue to rack up delegates. Trouble comes in a two or three-man contest, in which case Cruz and Rubio become serious threats. Indeed, Trump needs a bizarro version of Kentucky’s state motto to continue his grip on the process — a GOP divided and Trump stands, a GOP united and Trump falls.
It is unlikely that Trump would defeat either Cruz or Rubio in a head to head matchup. Rubio is now the GOP’s best hope for a nominee who can defeat Hillary Clinton and keep us safe. Let’s hope for a Rubio versus Trump matchup as soon as possible.
###
Scott Jennings previously served as an advisor to President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell. He is a partner at RunSwitch Public Relations, and can be reached at scott@runswitchpr.com or on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY. He previously supported Jeb Bush for President.
�+f�-~
