The end of the Trump saga: voter turnout
As an Iowa transplant, I’m new to the caucus. But as an American voter, I’m no stranger to polling.
Polls, in my opinion, are the bane of any presidential candidates existence. Their accuracy depends upon a lot of things, including one that Americans often forget: voter turnout.
According to Public Policy Polling (PPP), on Wednesday, January 6, Donald Trump was predicted to win New Hampshire by 14 points. He polled 28 percent in mid-October and has kept steady in the state ever since. (Click here for the full report, if you’re into that sort of thing.)
But how likely is a Trump voter to show up on February 9?
According to Newsweek:
“Slightly over half of Trump supporters are female, about half are between 45 and 64 years of age with another 34 percent being over 65 years old and less than two percent younger than 30. One half of his voters have a high school education or less compared to 19 percent with a college or post-graduate degree. Slightly over one third of his supporters earn less than $50,000 per year while 11 percent earn over $100,000 per year.”
Trump supporters are anti-government and anti-establishment. You know the type: they’re your cousin on Facebook, ranting about a government that needs fresh faces, but never admitting that they can’t be bothered to vote because they’re equally convinced that their vote doesn’t matter.
The political process is about more than who can admit to supporting a candidate on a random pop-up survey, “like” them on Facebook, or even participate in a mail survey.
“Like the American Idol viewer who speed-dials the program to profess undying love for this season’s big gun but fails to purchase the winning artist’s debut album, Trump may similarly find his ballot returns are far less rosy than surveys indicate today.” (TIME, January 5)
Leading in Iowa, leading in New Hampshire, and leading in the nation doesn’t guarantee you the White House if those voters don’t turn out, just ask Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.