Capital of Nomads:
Part 2
Migration Varies by Family Status, Class, and Other Demographic Factors
Earlier this week, I provided a basic overview of migration in the DC metro area. Today, I’m going to go more in-depth, exploring how migration varies across demographic categories. All too often, commentators and policymakers just focus on highly aggregated migration figures, even though such data can’t really offer them much policy-relevant information. So for this post, we’ll get into some details to explore what types of people move into and out of the DC metro area.
DC’s Migration Profile
Age and the Migration Life Cycle
The above chart shows the net migration rate for each age group in the whole metro area, and the District of Columbia specifically. As you can see, there are some very clear differences for the two areas.
I’ll start with just the District. The District of Columbia has high outmigration for kids and middle-aged people. In other words, DC systematically fails to hang onto families. Once people have kids, they leave the urban core. And they don’t come back: out-migration more-or-less persists up to and beyond retirement. But DC is hugely appealing to college freshmen and people in their early 20s. This is due to the presence of several large universities, and widely recognized graduate programs, as well as numerous entry-level jobs for mobile college graduates. When these factors combine with a gentrifying urban core, we can see why DC is highly appealing to 20-somethings. But as soon as these young people start getting married and having kids, they’re on their way out to the ‘burbs or beyond.
The District of Columbia is hugely attractive to students and 20-somethings, but has large outflows for families.
The metro area on the whole, however, is quite different. It has a slight loss of kids, and a slight gain for middle-aged people. But these are fairly small net rates. Where the metro area really stands out is college freshmen and retirees. In part due to many excellent high schools, the DC metro area hemorrhages 18 and 19 year-olds. There’s a good and a bad side to this. On the one hand, it means students are being prepared for college or work elsewhere: migration is a sign of economic success for these students. On the other hand, it’s likely that these students and their parents expected their kids to go somewhere else, and expect their kids to ultimately work and put down roots somewhere else. That may dissuade some forms of social and financial investment in the local area. Transiency, and the expectation of future transiency, can induce people to abstain from the kinds of investments in a local community that can take generations to pay off: churches, extended family groups, social organizations, and other “roots.”
The whole metro area exemplifies transiency, which may reduce social capital for residents, especially those who stay.
Throughout the metro area, then, it’s no surprise that retirees are leaving. On the one hand, this is likely cost-driven, as there are often large inducements for retirees to stay put (for example: DC may be more fun for grandkids to visit than a retirement community in Arizona). But this is also another symptom of DC’s transiency: once the kids finish high school, the parents look to leave. These net migration rates suggest that, on balance, families in DC are less likely to be planning for a lifetime investment in the local community than may be the case in other areas.
However, as long-time readers will recognize, I tend to be on the “more migration is better” side of things. So while this transiency has costs, insofar as it reflects robust amenities that encourage high achievement, it may be a good thing.
DC’s Migration Profile
Middle-Class Migrants
DC loses low-income migrants: but that’s largely just because it loses student-aged individuals. It barely attracts people earning over $75,000, suggesting that individuals with high-incomes have preferences that the metro area doesn’t fulfill. But for middle-income people between $15,000 and $75,000, the DC metro area has a strong appeal. Now many people will say, “But $50,000 in DC is not as much money as $50,000 somewhere else: even $30,000 or $40,000 in DC can be hard to live on.” And I agree, local price levels matter. But remember we’re talking about young people moving to DC, mostly college-educated. In other words, we’re talking about people with student loans. Loan payments don’t adjust for local price level. If local prices and local wages adjust by the same rate across geographic areas, high-price areas will enable faster liability reduction and faster asset accumulation.
By offering a high-price, high-wage economy with numerous entry-level white collar jobs in government, NGOs, nonprofits, and international organization, DC is a powerful stepping stone into an upper middle-class lifestyle for many college-educated young people. But because it lacks many of the star-power driven industries like finance and tech that drives economic growth in places like San Francisco and New York, migration among high-income people is more-or-less breaking even.
DC’s Migration Profile
Diversity in Migration
The DC metro area has net outmigration across almost all races and ethnic groups (the one exception is American Indians and Alaska Natives, which I have lumped in with “Other Race or Multiracial”). But what is notable is that this city, which I’ve identified as a dynamo of for entry into the middle class, has the most positive migration for Hispanic migrants, and the most negative for white, non-Hispanic migrants. This may at first seem strange; may even seem to suggest that the city is doing a good job providing uplift for Hispanics. Unfortunately, I suspect the opposite is the case. But before I explain what I think is going on with these racial and ethnic patterns, I should note that this is somewhat speculative, as I do not have migration data crossed by both race and age or educational level.
Out-migration can be a sign of success.
My suspicion is that high white outmigration reflects predominantly white college-bound students. If true, this implies that lower outmigration by blacks, Hispanics, and Asians is a result of poor school quality for those students. White, non-Hispanic kids may be more likely to attend high-quality schools and private schools, and thus more likely to get into selective schools around the nation. Various minorities may be less likely to attend college, and more likely to stay close if they do.
DC’s Migration Profile
Homeownership and Pricing
There’s a substantial difference in migration rates between homeowners and renters. Homeowners tend to move away from DC, renters tend to move into the area. This is partly connected to age differences: inflows tend to be young people headed to the urban core. But that’s not all there is to it.
High home prices in DC both encourage renting and encourage selling-to-migrate.
High real estate prices in DC relative to the rest of the nation have a distinct effect on migration. A homeowner in DC can sell their home for a given price, and use the money to buy a bigger, better home somewhere else, with money to spare. Established homeowners face a real incentive to relocate. Meanwhile, high home prices make it hard for recent migrants to purchase a home, so they rent upon first arrival. They may eventually become homeowners, but most new arrivals are not. Few people sell a home somewhere else to buy one in DC. The reason is simple: the price you’d get for your old home would only buy a smaller, less preferred home in DC.
DC’s Migration Profile
Conclusion
Migration in the DC metro area varies widely across demographic groups. There is no single “typical migrant” for this or any city. In general, DC metro area is most attractive to young professionals, and least attractive to families, college students, and retirees. That said, there are variations within the metro area. The District of Columbia itself draws many college students, while young families leave at very high rates. The suburbs or even other cities continue to be attractive for many people. High metro-area out-migration by college-students is not necessarily a bad sign, as it may indicate high-performing schools. That said, there appears to be some case to be made that these schools don’t serve all students equally. Lower out-migration by minorities may imply lower educational opportunities. On top of this educational inequality, most of the metro area’s distinctive jobs are political or governmentally related and may require a college degree. These jobs afford a good, middle- or upper-middle-class lifestyle. But the DC metro area may not prepare its minority students to compete for those jobs. Meanwhile, although DC’s successful middle class can afford the high home prices with some saving, minorities may be shut out, stuck as renters, with their ability to accumulate assets that can provide ways out of poverty very limited.
See part 1 of this series, offering a brief overview of migration in DC.
See part 3 of this series, mapping out local migration patterns.
Start my series on migration from the beginning.
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I’m a graduate of the George Washington University’s Elliott School with an MA in International Trade and Investment Policy, and an economist at USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. I like to learn about migration, the cotton industry, airplanes, trade policy, space, Africa, and faith.
My posts are not endorsed by and do not in any way represent the opinions of the United States government or any branch, department, agency, or division of it. My writing represents exclusively my own opinions. I did not receive any financial support or remuneration from any party for this research. More’s the pity.
