What Happened to Migration in 2015?
CPS Edition- But We’re Not Even There Yet!
The Current Population Survey releases its March survey results in November. These survey results include the longest-running baseline estimates of migration. Earlier this year, I covered the 2014 numbers. Well, I’m more on-the-ball this time, so I’m covering the 2015 numbers, released about a week ago.
The summary of the new data is simple: there is growing evidence that long- and medium-range migration rates are beginning to recover, even as short-range migration falls. However, this recovery is not universal. It is strongest among whites and among those with more degrees. Meanwhile, other groups, like the less educated and Hispanics, are falling further behind.
Migration in 2015
The Good News: Migration is Recovering!
The key statistic here isn’t that orange line up top, but the red and yellow lines below that measure intercounty and interstate migration. Interstate migration has slowly-but-surely risen since 2010, while intercounty migration shows the same trend since 2011. Now, we’re not out of the woods! Rates remain far below where they were even just 10 years ago. But if, like me, you believe migration promotes economic mobility, this rise in interstate migration is a very positive sign.
But hold on. Maybe like me you saw a Washington Post piece from Emily Badger saying that migration was declining. She showed this graph:
Her blue line is my orange line. It’s intracounty moves. But that’s really not the key story here. Falling intracounty migration is hugely influenced by demographics, local housing dynamics, and, in fact, is often substitutable for intercounty migration. Much intercounty migration is intra-metro, so it may be that intercounty migration rose as suburbanization accelerates again, while intracounty moves fell as people who would have switched between urban apartments instead moved to the ‘burbs. Those who’ve been around for a while will recall that I’ve had concerns over Wonkblog’s presentation of migration statistics before.
But hold on, Lyman. Doesn’t CPS data have serious flaws and limitations?
Why yes, diligent reader, it does. So let’s compare to other sources.
Migration in 2015
Most Sources Confirm Rising Migration
No source shows interstate migration growing like gangbusters. But pretty much all sources show at least stabilization of intercounty and interstate moves. Most indicate migration is inching upwards from lows in 2010 or 2011. If only the CPS were indicating an end to the declining trend since 1990, I’d be skeptical. But it’s now showing up in every major source.
How far will migration recover? Who knows! An aging population will keep rates somewhat suppressed, as will a growing immigrant share and Hispanic share of the population. But increasing educational attainment may boost rates. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Migration in 2015
Educated Migration is Recovering Fastest
As can be seen quite clearly, the biggest gains were made by graduate degree-holders, building on gains in 2014 as well. While the trends are volatile, it is remarkable how the very similar rates for BA/BS and MA/MS older were so similar until 2006, then have generally showed a significant gap since. Meanwhile, the gap between high school diploma holders and non-graduates has narrowed.
The most sustained recover since 2010 has been among those with some college or an associate’s degree, thus narrowing the gap with BA/BS holders. What we’re seeing, to me, looks like it could be a significant reallignment. Formerly, anyone who didn’t graduate college had roughly similar migration rates, and then there was a wide gap, and then college-graduates stuck out as a group. But over the last 10 years, it seems like non-college-attendees are converging into one group, college-attendees are converging regardless of graduation, and graduate degree holders are separating from the pack. If these relationships hold, it would be concerning, as we could see people who already have the most human capital in the form of degrees also compound that advantage with a growing inequality in geographically dispersed information. The uneducated would not just be stuck in poverty, they’d be stuck in poverty in poor places, which means their kids would be stuck in poverty, while the educated would just have progressively lower and lower chances of downward mobility.
This might not happen. I said in my review of 2014 that rates seemed very stable since 2007. Maybe in 2016 these gaps go away. But I noticed these gaps in my review of the 2014 ACS as well. If they continue to persist across years and information sources, it’ll be a real concern.
Migration in 2015
Migration by Age
If you click on the visualization above, you can click through the years. I felt a line graph was way, way too busy.
It turns out, if you compare 2015 to 2014, something weird happened. Migration rates fell for the groups with the highest rates (18–30 year-olds), but rose for the young and old. This is kinda weird. Here’s what it looks like graphed as the percent change in gross migration rate from 2014 to 2015:
So migration rates fell for people at the peak of their migration life cycle, but rose for the rest. This ties in with what we observed about education. Most graduate degree-holders are somewhat older than college-degree or associate’s-degree holders. The question here is chicken-or-the-egg. Is migration rising because of age, and education is a side effect, or is it vice versa? Or both?
I think it’s both, for two reasons. First, both seem to show pretty strong trends. Second, the biggest relative increases were for retirees, groups where it’s hard to argue that educational qualifications are a huge motivator of migration. It seems likely that we are observing multiple different migration dynamics at once. Something is altering the geography of education and returns to education, and something else is altering the geography of the American life cycle.
Whatever is depressing migration by 18–29 year-olds, it qualifies as a Very Big Deal. Research by Scott Winship has pretty consistently associated migration during that age window with greatly improved life outcomes. If Millennials are migrating less in their peak migration years, it may haunt them for years to come, and diminish economic mobility over the next 10–30 years.
Migration in 2014
Migration by Race
As I showed in my review of 2014 ACS data, migration rates are generally highest for multiracial individuals, and also generally high for Asians. Whites and blacks are in the middle, and Hispanics have very low rates, and they’re getting lower. I have nothing to add here that I didn’t already say in the ACS review, so I’ll just past what I said there:
The above chart shows gross migration rates by race or ethnic background. There are a few trends really worth noting. First, while migration rates were formerly higher for blacks than whites, they are now lower. And even as white and Asian migration rates have shown some recovery, black migration rates have been stagnant. This follows with the education gap I pointed out earlier.
Hispanic and multiracial migrants show two different futures.
But there may be a more interesting story here. There are at least two groups that are consistent outliers in terms of migration rate that we also know are going to be a growing share of the U.S.’ population in the future: Hispanics and multiracial individuals. Hispanics have persistently lower rates of migration, multiracial individuals have persistently higher. The gap between these two groups has widened over the last several years.
As the U.S. becomes more Hispanic, it is possible that the lower propensity to migrate among Hispanics will change, and they’ll “assimilate” to American migration likelihoods. Maybe. But it’s also possible that existing migration patterns will remain about what they’ve been for a decade now, and a rising Hispanic share of the population will lead to a lower national interstate migration rate. Not because any given group of people are moving less, but because the composition of the nation has changed.
On the other hand, other fast-growing groups in the U.S., like multiracial individuals and Asians, have persistently higher migration rates than the largest current groups (whites and blacks). As multiracial and Asian individuals make up a larger share of the population, migration rates can be expected to rise. So in terms of forecasting the future of domestic migration, a key question is the ratio of Asian to Hispanic immigrants and emigrants, as well as natural fertility differences in both groups, and also the rate at which Americans of different races get married and have kids. This is yet another example of how international and domestic migration are linked together in little-studied ways.
Migration in 2015
Conclusion
Migration in 2015 appears to be slowly recovering from lows in 2010 and 2011. The CPS provides the strongest recovery, but all sources show either stability or slight recovery. That recovery is lead by gains among the most educated, among whites, and among the elderly. Insofar as the nation becomes more educated, more multiracial and Asian, and younger, we should expect future migration rates to rise. But insofar as the nation becomes more Hispanic, more elderly, and continues to experience pressures on migration opportunities and return, we should expect future migration rates to remain low or even fall. Which of these trends will prevail is far from clear, and as such the future of American migration is ambiguous. But for 2015 at least, early signs offer positive indicators of a migration recovery. Here’s hoping.
See my previous post, about the link between migration, tax policy, and population growth.
Start my series on migration from the beginning.
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I’m a graduate of the George Washington University’s Elliott School with an MA in International Trade and Investment Policy, and an economist at USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. I like to learn about migration, the cotton industry, airplanes, trade policy, space, Africa, and faith. I’m married to a kickass Kentucky woman named Ruth.
My posts are not endorsed by and do not in any way represent the opinions of the United States government or any branch, department, agency, or division of it. My writing represents exclusively my own opinions. I did not receive any financial support or remuneration from any party for this research. More’s the pity.
