Where Are Migrants Going? Part III
Key Cities, Changes in 2013
My last two posts have provided disaggregated migration data, exploring variation in migration by age and race. Now, I want to look at changes in migration. Flows of migrants can be fickle: whether it’s Hurricane Katrina, the closure of Eastern Canadian fisheries, or the fracking oil boom in North Dakota, where migrants go can change radically by the year. So it’s worth wondering: how did things change in 2013?
By and large, most large metro areas saw annual migration flows similar to the last five years (2008–2012), which is to be expected. Migration may be volatile, but it isn’t random. At the extreme ends, however, some cities saw notable changes.
Cities with rising migration span many states and regions.
Migration over a 5-year period, like 2008–2012, will necessarily be less volatile than in a given year, so this comparison has to be treated with some caution. But a few things do stand out. Perhaps most important is what we don’t see in the data: there’s little regional trend to changes in migration rates. This further contributes to the argument I’ve been making that we can’t reduce migration to sweeping stories of whole regions making gains. Doubtless if we could get even more granular data, we would see migration is concentrated in certain counties, even certain neighborhoods. People care about very specific factors, and those factors can change rapidly. Which neighborhood is trendy, whether you prefer a refurbished townhouse or a high rise, how much you can afford for rent or a mortgage, which job you take– all are extremely local and contingent acts susceptible to change.
In keeping with my argument that migration is highly local, I’m not going to offer a general theory to explain these changes. Locals in these cities are far more likely to know what’s driving changes in migration than any outside demographer.
As such, I’ll leave it to readers to decide what shifts drove these changes, and make this a very short post. Maybe a changing job market, issues at the border, changing university recruitment, or altered perceptions about which cities have vibrant living communities. But whatever the reason, it’s vital that policymakers keep abreast of changing migration flows involving their jurisdictions. Keeping up-to-date on how migration is changing helps policymakers forecast revenue better, plan spending priorities, and react positively to any major shifts.
Start the series from the beginning!
Follow me on Twitter. Follow my Medium Collection at In a State of Migration. I’m a grad student in International Trade and Investment Policy at the George Washington University’s Elliott School. I like to write and tweet about migration, airplanes, trade, space, and other new and interesting research.
