Why Do People Move?
Many Reasons, but Mostly Jobs
If migration is so important, then it’s worth knowing why people move. There’s no shortage of theories about this, and those theories tell us a lot about how policymakers should respond.
For example, during this summer’s surge in unaccompanied minors, theories trying to explain the surge ranged from crime, violence, and drought in Central America, to the administration’s policy of expanded “deferred action,” to lies spread by criminal organizations to drive up revenues from coyotes. The appropriate policy response varies based on which explanation is correct: is it most important to promote development in Central America, deport underage immigrants, or combat gangs?
This chart clearly shows that some migration motivations matter far more than others: overall, very few Americans migrate for a better climate, retirement, or health reasons. Instead, Americans move for jobs, family, and housing. This has serious consequences for how we think about migration.
For decades, researchers have talked about migration to “Sunbelt States,” a research focus sometimes preoccupied with “snowbirds” and similar retirement-focused narratives. But if survey data from actual migrants is to be believed, then weather, health, and retirement are small potatoes compared to the real stories of migration, which are of families looking for a place to settle down, individuals seeking opportunities for economic advancement, and Americans of all stripes pursuing a higher quality of life.
However, American priorities in migration have changed over the last decade.
Since 2003, the face of American migration has changed. Migration for “other housing” has risen as a share of all migration, driven in no small part by increased foreclosures. Migrants are also somewhat more likely to cite family, commuting convenience, and employment reasons for migration.
However, key “optimistic” drivers of migration have plummeted. Migration due to marriage, first purchase of a home, acquisition of better housing, or college attendance have all fallen by huge amounts. Instability in the housing market may contribute to this trend, as well as the rising age of first marriage.
But rising college costs are almost certainly a factor in reduced rates of migration. As college gets more expensive and its payoffs become riskier, more students will be likely to stay in-state for cheaper tuition at public schools, or even in-county to live with family.
Knowing what we know about migration, there is cause for concern. Sure, people are still moving for jobs and family, but they’re not moving as much for education. Students who might otherwise have migrated for education may get a good education at home, or cost factors may push them into schools they don’t prefer, or keep them living at home longer in a state of arrested development.
There’s good reason to believe this change is cost-driven: educationally-motivated migration fell by 24 percent more among students from households earning less than $50,000 than among students from households earning more than that. High college costs are not only pushing students into schools they may not prefer, but are also preventing those students from building the broader range of connections and experiences that may be associated with studying away from home.
Migration matters, and it’s changing fast. Declining migration is intimately tied to wider social questions about affordable housing, the cost of a college degree, and employment. We’ll see in the next section as I begin outlining a profile of migrants that this decline in migration will change life for some groups more than for others.
Start the series from the beginning!
Follow me on Twitter. Follow my Medium Collection at In a State of Migration. I’m a grad student in International Trade and Investment Policy at the George Washington University’s Elliott School. I like to write and tweet about migration, airplanes, trade, space, and other new and interesting research. Cover photo from Unsplash.
