Arizona Fall League wrap-up: Bird, Winker shine; Bradley, Nimmo falter
By Sam Dykstra/MiLB.com
The Arizona Fall League slate officially came to a close Thursday afternoon, and now we begin our long, slow trudge into the harshness of winter the offseason can begin in earnest, at least as far as we’re concerned in Prospect Land. But before we move on, consider this to be one final look back at the good, the bad and one unfortunate incident in the 2014 AFL season.
GOOD
Greg Bird, Yankees/Scottsdale — As New York’s №11 prospect according to MLB.com, Bird was a notable name entering the fall circuit but not really a headliner either. No matter. The 22-year-old first baseman tied for the league lead with six homers and finished with a .313/.339/.556 line and 21 RBIs in 26 games with the Scorpions. The left-handed slugger, who has hit 34 homers in his first two full Minor League seasons, will likely climb the Yankees ranks this offseason — Baseball America has already pegged him №4 in the system — before attempting to climb through the system, starting in Double-A Trenton, in 2015.
Jesse Winker, Reds/Surprise — Unlike Bird, Winker already had earned plenty of plaudits as MLB.com’s №40 overall prospect entering the offseason. (That came with the territory when he owned a .917 OPS with 15 homers in 74 games between Double-A and Class A Advanced before a wrist injury from a July car accident ended his regular season prematurely.) Despite all the missed time, the left-handed outfielder picked up right where he left off with the stick, winning the AFL batting title with a .338 average and finishing tops with a .999 OPS (.440 OBP, .559 slugging) as well. Winker, who only turned 21 in August, has proven himself a pure hitter since the Reds took him 49th overall in 2012, and it shouldn’t be long before Cincinnati comes calling at this rate, perhaps even by September.
Hunter Renfroe, Padres/Surprise — Surprise led the AFL with 178 runs this autumn, and perhaps it should be no (puts on sunglasses) surprise, given the production of Winker and Renfroe in the heart of the lineup. Renfroe was tied with Bird for the AFL lead with six homers — four of which came in his final nine games — and was tops with 16 total extra-base hits when you throw in his nine doubles and one triple. That’s a big lift for the Padres’ №4 prospect, who had only 17 extra-base hits and batted .232 with a .659 OPS in 60 games at Double-A San Antonio. Renfroe is likely ticketed for a return to the Texas League, but at least he’ll have a little momentum with him come the spring.
Mark Appel, Astros/Salt River — If you followed the 2013 first overall pick’s 2014 season — or read much of anything on this site — you’d know Appel had a tough summer. The Fall League offered a chance at redemption, and he certainly took advantage. Appel made seven starts, and although none lasted longer than five innings, he was plenty effective in six of those outings. He started with 14 straight innings of scoreless ball and finished with a 2.61 ERA and 24-to-8 K/BB ratio through 31 innings. Back when Appel owned a 9.74 ERA in the California League, the Astros would take any good news they could get on the right-hander. For now, this fits the bill.
Corey Seager, Dodgers/Glendale — One of the interesting storylines entering the fall was Seager’s return after batting .181 in 19 games in Arizona last autumn. There were plenty of excuses then — age (he was 19) being one, fatigue another — but like Appel, this had to be the chance to answer one of the few remaining questions surrounding the Dodgers’ top prospect. After slashing .349/.402/.602 during the regular season, Seager’s line in the AFL stood at a perfectly respectable .281/.354/.472 with a homer and 14 RBIs in 23 games with the Desert Dogs. Just a reminder, he’s still only 20. He’ll likely head back to Double-A ball, but his ascension in 2014 is a big reason why the Dodgers are letting Hanley Ramirez go and keeping their long-term options open at shortstop.
BAD
Archie Bradley, D-backs/Salt River — The way most see it, 2014 was a lost year for Bradley. He was considered one of the top two or three pitching prospects in the game and had a chance to crack the D-backs’ Opening Day rotation. He instead was moved to Triple-A Reno before shoulder issues put him on the shelf in late April. He went to Double-A Mobile in late June and never left the Southern League, where he posted a 4.12 ERA and 5.9 BB/9 in 12 starts (54 2/3 innings). Sent to the AFL to make up for lost time (and lost results), Bradley didn’t fare much better there. He made six starts (17 2/3 innings), posting a 7.14 ERA in those outings. What’s more, he walked 11 batters for a BB/9 of 5.6. The 22-year-old right-hander struggled mostly out of the stretch as opposing batters had a .449 OBP against him with runners on base. Bradley has time on his side, and with a 70-grade fastball and 65-grade curve, he has the stuff. But because of the control issues, his profile has lost plenty of luster in the last year.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets/Scottsdale — Nimmo’s story is much like Renfroe’s. He put up some really encouraging numbers at Class A Advanced (.322/.448/.458), causing him to move up to №3 in the Mets system and №60 overall, but saw those stats flounder in Double-A (.238/.339/.396). Given another chance to prove himself against advanced arms in the AFL, he struggled again, producing a .202/.306/.238 line with 28 strikeouts in 21 games for Scottsdale. Without much power or anything that could be considered plus on the defensive side, Nimmo’s bat will be what drives his climb through the Mets system, but even that hasn’t been there for him lately. He’ll get his next chance to show it’s only a temporary slump during his age-22 season back at Double-A Binghamton.
D.J. Peterson, Mariners/Surprise — Coming off a season in which he batted .297 with 31 homers between Class A Advanced High Desert and Double-A Jackson, Peterson seemed primed to put up similar numbers to Winker, Bird and Peter O’Brien (five homers, .904 OPS) in the AFL. Instead, he went just 10-for-59 (.169) with one long ball in 16 games for the Saguaros. Because it runs against his regular-season production, it’s easier to say that Peterson’s struggles aren’t anything to be too worried about. The 22-year-old slugger, who spent time at third and first base in the AFL, should be able to shrug it off and keep his eye on replicating 2014 in the upper levels of the Mariners system next summer.
UNFORTUNATE
Byron Buxton, Twins/Salt River — This wouldn’t be a full Arizona Fall League wrap-up without addressing the situation of the game’s top prospect. He gets his own special section here because we’d hate to call his performance bad. It’s all just rather unfortunate.
Buxton was the top storyline this fall after missing most of the summer due to wrist injuries and a concussion. After being bereft of the Minors’ most exciting player, the baseball world was eagerly waiting to see what Buxton could do in his second Fall League campaign. He got 13 games under his belt, batted .263 with five steals in that time before suffering a dislocated finger while diving for a ball in the outfield. The Twins center fielder underwent surgery on the finger soon after and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. All the same, this was a chance for Buxton to have some good news entering the offseason. As of now, that’s not going to happen. Here’s to a healthier 2015.
