Progress report: Evaluating the graduates from MLB’s top 50
By Sam Dykstra / MiLB.com
As it does before every season, MLB.com released its 2014 ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game in March. As the season progressed, some of these players “graduated” from the ranking upon acquiring 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days in the Majors. This is a look back at which prospects graduated from MLB.com’s top 50 and how they’ve done in their first collective tastes of the Majors. If nothing else, it should serve as a reminder that Major League Baseball is incredibly hard.
All stats are through games of Sept. 9.
2. Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): It’s been a rough first full season in the Majors for the talented shortstop, who had a career .862 OPS in the Minors. He’s slashed only .235/.300/.356 with 10 homers and 36 RBIs in 129 games while being moved between shortstop (his life-long position) and third base for the Red Sox. To drive the point home, his OPS+ is 84 and is bWAR was 0.1, indicating that he did little to play above replacement level as a rookie. The good news: he’s still only 21. There’s plenty of time for him to develop, and that could happen once he’s settled on a position. One more quick note: Bogaerts’ OPS+ in 83 games as a shortstop was 116; in 44 games at the hot corner, it was just 43.
3. Oscar Taveras (Cardinals): Like Bogaerts, Taveras has lots of promise at the plate. It just hasn’t shown in his stats yet. The 22-year-old Cardinals outfielder has a .239/.280/.322 line with three homers and 20 RBIs in 66 games across two stints with St. Louis. He wasn’t getting consistent playing time in the Majors up until the Cards’ trade of Allen Craig allowed him to take over the full-time job in right field. A steadier job and more consistent at-bats should do wonders for Taveras come next spring.
7. Javier Baez (Cubs): Promoted to the Cubs in early August, Baez has gained plenty of attention for two reasons — his mammoth blasts and his massive amount of strikeouts. Seven of Baez’s 25 hits have been for homers and most have been “Wow!”-worthy. But he’s also struck out 63 times in 153 Major League plate appearances. That’s most in the Majors since his debut on Aug. 5 and 19 more K’s than the runners-up in the category (teammate Arismendy Alcantara and Mike Trout, 44). The Cubs’ promotion of Baez, whose 41.2 percent K rate is much higher than his 25.9 career rate in the Minors, has more to do with acclimating him to the Majors than anything else, so they’ll likely take the homers as a cause for optimism rather than focus on the strikeout totals, which will always be high as long as Baez continues to swing for the fences. The hope is that the 21-year-old reaches his ceiling and will provide 30-plus homers in seasons to come, which would be huge if he stays at either second base or shortstop.
13. Gregory Polanco (Pirates): Polanco was the Super Two poster boy of the early season with the Pirates allowing him to put up a .347/.405/.540 line with Triple-A Indianapolis before finally calling him up on June 10. The 22-year-old outfielder batted .288 with a .749 OPS in June but hit a wall soon after, batting just .219 in 44 games after July 1. The Bucs sent him back to Triple-A ball for a seven-game spell on Aug. 26 to open a roster spot for Jose Tabata and brought him back one day after rosters expanded at the start of September. Polanco’s Pirates career didn’t get off to the start anyone hoped, but he remains a big part of the team’s plans for a talented outfield that includes reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte.
15. Nick Castellanos (Tigers): With one of the best offenses in the American League, the Tigers have given Castellanos a pretty big leash as he made both the move back to third base, following a Minor League season in the outfield, and to the Majors full-time. The 22-year-old was always a bat-first prospect in the Minors, and he carried that profile into the game’s highest level. He owns a .264/.309/.406 line with 10 homers, four triples, 30 doubles, 59 RBIs and a 96 OPS+ in 132 games for Detroit. He struggled some at the hot corner though, as his -17.9 UZR/150 ranks 23rd among the 25 third basemen with enough innings to qualify. His -0.2 fWAR is nothing to build a resume on, but given his youth and the experience he’s gained, the Tigers hope Castellanos can grow into his impressive hitting ceiling in the years to come.
21. George Springer (Astros): Springer was building a case as one of the most promising young players in the Majors before a right knee and quad injury moved him to the DL in late July (he’s yet to return). The Astros outfielder owned a .231 average, .804 OPS, 20 homers and 51 RBIs in 78 games before the injury. Though his high K rate (33 percent) carried over from the Minors, so did his high walk rate (11.3). To wrap it up into one nice package, his adjusted Weighted Runs Created (wRC+), which tells you how much better a player contributed runs to his team compared to the average (100), is tied for third among rookies at 126, behind only Jose Abreu (164) and Danny Santana (134).
22. Travis d’Arnaud (Mets): The first two months of the season didn’t go so great for the 25-year-old backstop. He started the season batting .196 through his first 31 games before a concussion forced him to sit for two weeks. Eight games after his return — and with his average down to .180 — he was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas before finally returning June 24. He’s been very good since, with a .285/.329/.502 line with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in his last 59 games. The Mets have openly discussed moving d’Arnaud to the outfield because of his concussion issues, and if his latest production becomes the norm, his bat should play there.
31. Kevin Gausman (Orioles) The Orioles yo-yo’d the 2012 fourth overall pick plenty during the season — he made three different stints at Triple-A Norfolk before July — and to his credit, he didn’t let it affect his effectiveness. Making 17 starts for the AL East leaders, Gausman is 7–7 with a 3.83 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 35 walks over 96 1/3 innings in the Majors. The 23-year-old right-hander could be the O’s fourth man in their playoff rotation next month.
33. Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox): Bradley might be best-served forgetting 2014 ever happened. The 24-year-old center fielder batted just .214 with an anemic .573 OPS/62 OPS+ in 114 games with the Red Sox and was sent down to Triple-A Pawtucket in the middle of August to help find his swing. Position players have to hit some if they’re going to earn a big league spot, but say this about Bradley: he might have been the best defensive center fielder in the American League this season. His 20.5 UZR/150 is second among AL outfielders, behind only defensive wizard Alex Gordon (23.9), and his 13 outfield assists also rank second behind teammate Yoenis Cespedes (15). Because of that, he could very well win an AL Gold Glove. Nonetheless, his future as a Red Sox starter has been muddled by Mookie Betts’ production in center and the signing of Cuban sensation Rusney Castillo in August.
35. Yordano Ventura (Royals): The Royals are fighting for their first AL playoff spot since 1985, and Ventura’s contributions are no small reason why. The 23-year-old right-hander is 12–9 with a 3.25 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 134 strikeouts in 158 innings for Kansas City. His 2.3 fWAR ranks seventh among rookie pitchers, and he’s garnered some attention for a fastball that averages 96.1 mph. While on-the-field production often dims expectations, the future remains just as bright now for Ventura as it did back in March, assuming he retains his health.
37. Billy Hamilton (Reds): Hamilton was the “It” rookie entering the season because of his incredible stolen-base totals in the Minors. Indeed, he’s swiped 55 bags for the Reds this season but has struggled to reach base with any regularity (.260 average, .298 OBP). Interestingly, Hamilton’s greatest value has been in center field, where he moved last season after previously playing shortstop. He trails only the Mets’ Juan Lagares (28.4) among NL center fielders in terms of UZR/150 (18.7), and that incredible range has helped him get a 3.4 fWAR, third-highest among rookie position players. Hamilton could be all the more dangerous with an OBP above .325 or so, but the Reds aren’t likely going to complain too much about his first season.
46. Allen Webster (Red Sox): Webster’s claim to fame is that he’s always had really good stuff, he just can’t control it very well. Those control issues came home to roost in the Majors this season as he’s 3–3 with a 6.47 ERA and 4.71 FIP in eight starts (40 1/3 innings) with the Red Sox. His K/9 (5.8) numbers are only slightly north of his BB/9 (5.6) over that time. Between Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo, the Red Sox have given their young starters a chance to impress and command a spot in the 2015 rotation, and right now, it’s difficult to say any has performed well enough in the Majors to make that happen.
50. Jon Singleton (Astros): In a time when power seems to be at a premium in the game, Singleton always stuck out as a player who could provide a Major League team with decent pop and a patient approach. He’s done that with 13 homers and a 13.9 percent walk rate in 83 games for the Astros. Unfortunately, Major League arms have been able to take advantage of his offensive deficiencies as well, limiting the 22-year-old first baseman to a .181 average while striking him out 34.8 percent of the time — the third-highest K rate among players with at least 300 plate appearances. As everyone knows, the Astros are undergoing a rebuilding phase and needed Singleton to get experience. But let this be said: if the rebuild is going to be successful, he’s going to need to improve significantly going forward.
