Prospects Trending Up and Down, A Reaction to MLB.com’s Top 100 List for 2013
By MiLB.com
I was off and out of the office Wednesday night, when MLB.com released its new, 2013 Top 100 Prospect list. My MiLB.com colleague @AshMarshallMLB wrote this informative piece on the rankings, plus some of the included prospects’ opinions on said rankings.
Before I add my take, some quick background for you: MLB.com’s Draft extraordinaire @JonathanMayoB3 puts together this slotting system based on his expertise and his communications with pro talent evaluators. This is no willy-nilly process. That said, however, the reason for, say, ranking Mariners infielder Nick Franklin 47th and A’s shortstop Addison Russell 48th is probably moot, the margin thin. As I wrote to a reader in a November post on this blog:
Rankings, as much as you and I might love them, are very subjective and often poorly defined. Are we talking about, for example, the Minor Leaguers who have the highest ceilings, the Minor Leaguers with high ceilings who are most likely to reach them or some combination of the two? And is a player further along in his development ranked ahead of a player that is, say, only a year into his career? Every so-called expert weighs these things differently.*
*I will also add that it’s far easier to critique rankings than to put them together, so take my brief arguments for what they’re worth.
Without further delay, here is what I take away from our new Top 100: The noticeable climb and decline of a handful of prospects as related to their perceived value, taking a look back at the ’12 list, juxtaposing it with the ’13 list.
The guys I’m curious about: Trending Up (’12 ranking → ’13 ranking)
- Cardinals right fielder Oscar Taveras — 12 → 3
- Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez — 23 → 7
- Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard — 83 → 29
This one sort of baffles me. Yes, Syndergaard is a top pitching prospect and, yes, he was traded to a bigger market (TOR to NYM) this offseason, but he still hasn’t pitched at the Class A Advanced level and his fastball is still too straight while his off-speed stuff is still average.
- Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler — 69 → 42
- Rays right-hander Chris Archer — 81 → 46
- A’s shortstop Addison Russell — 89 → 48
- Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson — UR → 49
Gibson, you might remember, was in the Top 100 conversation before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2011. He pitched solidly in his return to the mound last season but now projects as a №3 of №4 starter, not the top-of-the-rotation prospect he once was. Which is why 49 seems high to me.
- Rockies outfielder David Dahl — 94 → 58
- Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura — 95 → 59
- D-backs shortstop Didi Gregorius — UR → 63
- Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco — 87 → 65
- White Sox outfielder Courtney Hawkins — UR → 68
- Nationals right-hander Lucas Giolito — UR → 74
- Phillies right-hander Ethan Martin — UR → 80
- Marlins left-hander Andrew Heaney — UR → 81
- Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha — UR → 83
- Rangers shortstop Luis Sardinas — UR → 84
- Rangers catcher Jorge Alfaro — UR → 88
- Blue Jays right-hander Roberto Osuna — UR → 90
- Tigers right-hander Bruce Rondon — UR → 92
The guys I’m curious about: Trending Down
- Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer — 5 → 17
- Mariners left-hander Danny Hultzen 8 → 18
- Rays shortstop Hak-Ju Lee — 32 → 56
- Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado: — 27 → 62
This drop is understandable. Arenado tore up the Cal League in 2011 and came back down to earth in ’12. He is still a very good prospect and will be spending his entire age-22 season at Triple-A in ’13, so keep an eye on him — he could be on the move back up this list.
- Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani — 57 → 66
He only falls nine spots, but I’d argue it’s unwarranted. No Minor League hurler this side of Jose Fernandez was better in 2012. Maybe scouts are concerned that Cingrani’s good-not-great fastball won’t blow away advanced hitters.
- Angels third baseman Kaleb Cowart — 46 → 67
- Marlins outfielder Jake Marisnick — 35 → 70
- Yankees outfielder Tyler Austin — 58 → 75
- D-backs third baseman Matt Davidson — 41 → 77
- Dodgers right-hander Zach Lee — 42 → 78
- Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong — 49 → 79
- Rangers left-hander Martin Perez — 43 → 95
- Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks — 59 → 98
- Rockies shortstop Trevor Story — 78 → 99
- Giants outfielder Gary Brown 79 → 100
- Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt — 53 → UR
- A’s outfielder Michael Choice — 63 → UR
Like Arenado, Choice should retake his place among the game’s best young hitting prospects. Choice has Miguel Sano-like power and can also be a strong defender. He missed much of last year due to a broken hand.
- Pirates right-hander Luis Heredia — 65 → UR
- Cubs right-hander Arodys Vizcaino — 68 → UR
- Red Sox outfielder Bryce Brentz — 70 → UR
- Reds right-hander Daniel Corcino — 71 → UR
- A’s right-hander Dan Straily — 73 → UR
- Astros infielder Delino DeShields — 77 — UR
- Twins second baseman Eddie Rosario — 80 → UR
