Is Facebook’s Half-Life Showing?
Chamath Palihapitiya recently noted that although starups are blitzscaling faster than ever, he believes their half-life is also shorter than ever.
This includes Facebook…and here are some very interesting signals to watch closely:
Facebook’s Raison D’etre is Losing Luster
“As of mid-2015, total sharing had declined by about 5.5% year over year while ‘original broadcast sharing’ was down 21% year over year, the confidential data show. Original posts are personal in nature as opposed to popular media like links to news sites. Original broadcasts are the most critical kind of content on Facebook because they bring the most engagement. Think of when people announce engagements or babies; those posts always get the most comments and ‘likes.’ The sharing problem was particularly acute with Facebook users under 30 years of age who were sharing much less than they were a year earlier compared with people over 30, according to the data.” (Source: The Information)
There’s Always a Pivot in the Middle Innings
No worries. In case you hadn’t heard, Facebook is no longer in the social network business. They are now trying to be the largest news distributor in the universe.
Wait! WTF!?
The top 10 English-language publishers have seen a combined 44% decline in monthly article engagement since July 2015. (Source: Business Intelligence)
Then there’s this:
“[W]hen publishers shared article links (including Instant Articles, Facebook’s fast-loading article format), they got just 571 shares per post. The least-likely format to be shared were status updates, which got 538 shares per post. The period measured covers April 27 to May 27.” (Source: Digiday)
Oh Shit. Is This the Hail Mary?
No worries. In case you hadn’t heard, Facebook is no longer in the news distribution business. They are now trying to be the largest video distributor in the universe.
Here’s a look at Facebook’s leap-frog to our fickle new preferences:
So, is Facebook now in the final three innings?
Is this the part of the game where Facebook either unlocks the ultimate treasure of capturing TV ads moving to online video and extends the game into a long series of extra innings, OR will users grow tired of video just like family photos and LOL links.
Of course, Facebook’s 1.6B users will feed it life for a long time to come. But Facebook simply might not be the Leviathan many still fear.
Which do you think? Speak your mind in the comments below.
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Damien Hoffman is the CEO/Founder of Cheat Sheet, a successfully boot-strapped digital publisher powered by an awesome team.
