2021 MLB Mock Draft 3.0
Merry Christmas ya filthy animals. It’s hard to believe we are a week away from the end of the cluster you-know-what that is 2020. It’s been an insane year, and baseball is no exception. With a slower than usual free agency, now couldn’t be a more appropriate time to release the third edition of the Minor League Madhouse mock draft. As per tradition, the mock is created with help from MLB Pipeline’s Draft Prospect rankings, which were released on December 14th. The rules for the mock once again are as follows. Picks are made primarily based on organizational depth unless there is a clear connection. This mock will also include the CB Lottery picks. This is also purely speculative, nothing really is set in stone until the prep and college seasons start.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Though there has been some uncertainty as of late, Kumar Rocker is the de-facto 1–1 pick for the Pirates thanks to an impressive freshman campaign with Vanderbilt capped off with the College World Series Most Outstanding player. Rocker’s floor is a 2–3 pitch 4th starter, but his build, athletic pedigree, and wipeout slider, which carried his 19 strikeout Super Regional no-hitter make him more of a high potential developmental 1–1 pick. His positioning in the draft is all contingent upon his junior season, as he finds himself competing with the likes of Jordan Lawlar and his college teammate Jack Leiter for the top spot, among others.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers get the best prep shortstop right out of their own backyard with this pick. Jordan Lawlar is toolsy across the board with a tremendous hit tool, a cannon for an arm, and pro grade speed. His power is above average with potential to get better, and his glove will allow him to stay at the shortstop position. Lawlar has the chance to grade out better than Bobby Witt Jr, who was the 2019 top prep shortstop, and is leagues ahead of 2020 top prep shortstop Ed Howard.
Detroit Tigers
A year after grabbing Spencer Torkelson first overall, the Tigers dip back in the Pac-12 pool and grab UCLA’s Matt McLain. McLain is no stranger to the first round, riding a helium filled senior season in high school to being selected 25th by the Diamondbacks. McLain has since solidified his standing as a draft prospect with two strong summers and a firm commitment to shortstop at UCLA, and seemed to be on his way to 1–1 candidacy before the COVID shutdown. Still, McLain’s value as a college position player will definitely be higher given the weakness of the class.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox picked a good year to have a bottom tier farm system this year and an even better time to bottom out, as even with the fourth selection they still have the chance to grab a tier 1 impact bat or arm. Adrian Del Castillo has done nothing but produce since he stepped on Miami’s campus, and his bat guarantees a first round selection, if not a top 10 or a top 5. Del Castillo didn’t play summer ball, instead using the opportunity to train with Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez. Del Castillo has an arm, but his receiving skills do need work, calling his pro position into question, but at the worst, he can be yet another bat first catcher that the U produces.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles may still have a ways to go in terms of shedding the dysfunctional franchise label, but at the very least their drafting has shown some degree of competency. With two Tier 1 college arms still on the board, it comes down to projectability vs. pedigree. And if he happens to still be available here, it’s hard to imagine the Orioles passing on Jack Leiter with the 5th pick. Leiter had an impressive debut for Vanderbilt while pitching behind Kumar Rocker, and when COVID shut down the season left scouts and fans wanting more. Leiter holds the advantage from an arsenal perspective, but he does need to work on his control. He may not have the desirable build, but Leiter has shown he can definitely compete and has his father’s bulldog mentality on the mound.
Arizona Diamondbacks
It stands to reason that the Diamondbacks are most likely entering rebuild mode. Between a multitude of poor moves in the past two offseasons, a division that is only getting tougher at the top, and a core that will likely be ready in the next couple of years, Arizona’s best chance of competing is to start all over again. Louisville has emerged as a talent factory as of late, and while last year they showcased two impressive rotational pieces, this year, their offense gets the chance to shine. Alex Binelas has been on the radar since his freshman season, even though his sophomore campaign ended just as soon as it started with a hamate fracture. Still, Binelas’s bat is strong, he hit 14 bombs as a freshman. Binelas has a strong hitters IQ, as he will utilize the entire field instead of being power dependent. His defense is a question mark. While he is a collegiate third baseman, he rates as a below average option and will likely be a professional corner outfielder.
Kansas City Royals:
Much like the combine warriors of the NBA and NFL, there exists summer league standouts in baseball, those who do okay or struggle during collegiate competition but absolutely demolish wood bat play. Jud Fabian is one of those summer league standouts, having shown a capability to hit in the Cape Cod League and the Florida League. While his sophomore year did show that he was adjusting better thanks to increased power, his junior year will be the determining factor as to whether he is the top outfielder in the class. Fabian’s calling card is his power, he’s otherwise average to above average across the board. The Royals have dipped into the Gator pool before, taking Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar in 2018, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility for them to go back.
Colorado Rockies
As the Rockies once again prepare to strip everything down to the studs, it’s once again time to figure out the identity they want to carry going forward. Thankfully they are still in Tier 1 arm territory, and if LSU’s Jaden Hill is available here, there’s no reason for them not to pounce. Hill’s value is based on his potential, as he has less mileage than his other tier 1 contemporaries. He has three solid offerings, a mid to high 90’s fastball, and a lively change-curve combination. Furthermore, his athleticism makes him an intriguing dark horse top 5 candidate. If Hill can pitch well in extended use this spring, there’s a strong possibility he doesn’t last this far, so this is most likely his floor.
Los Angeles Angels
Though the Angels seem to be operating in a state of limbo despite the hire of Perry Minason, their 2020 draft showed they are at least moving in the right direction in regards to developing talent. Reid Detmers has the potential to be a strong contributor in the near future. Adding a righthanded college arm in a strong class would be the next best thing, and Ty Madden is right in that goldilocks territory for the Angels. Madden’s velocity and secondary stuff has improved since he came to Texas, and his mechanics are high level thanks to bulking up in college. A four pitch pitcher, Madden is definitely a professional starter and he has the highest floor among his peers. Don’t be surprised if Madden is one of the first 2021 draftees in the big leagues.
New York Mets
Though Brodie Van Wagenen’s legacy will ultimately be trading Jarred Kelenic, his propensity to be aggressive in the draft definitely should be credited as the Mets were able to get four first round caliber prospects in two years. Jared Porter’s aggressive tendencies and Cape Cod history could lead to a continuation of that aggressiveness this year. The Mets are in that weird midpoint of the draft where they can still get a tier 1 player, and Jordan Wicks’ summer elevated him to the top of the LHP list in a weak year for lefties. He operates in the low 90’s, but his changeup is one of the best in the class with impressive life. Combining him with Matt Allan’s devastating curve and JT Ginn’s turbo sink slider would give the Mets a troika of pitchers with impressive secondary stuff.
Washington Nationals
The Nats have shown that they aren’t afraid of taking risks, and in their spot, a top 10 talent that tumbles would most likely find a home here. With a system flush in arm talent, it might be time to look at a bat, and two prep shortstops stand out as candidates. Marcelo Mayer has a high offensive and defensive IQ with an above average bat profile that could grow more power potential and quick twitch instincts and solid arm strength that will serve him well in keeping him at shortstop. Interestingly enough, Mayer was high school teammates with 2019 Twins first round pick Keoni Cavaco.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have the young talent to make a strong run for the AL West after floundering this past decade, and with Jerry DiPoto’s draft and IFA signings starting to bear fruit, now might be the perfect time for them to pounce. What the Mariners could still use is a big bat, and they stand to fall into getting one of the top prep power bats in Brady House. Though House struggled this summer as do many high visibility prep players, his timing and mistakes are fixable, and it is possible for him to regain his draft stock. House is a high school shortstop, but scouts see him as a pro third baseman because of his below average speed. His arm is pro grade though, and if he can return to form, could be this year’s Brett Baty.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies appear to be in a financial mess, and with a lot of money tied into the outfield and starting pitching, the question is how long before they go into fire sale mode. That said, they could still come out netting a positive as they are in prime territory to grab a future asset here. James Wood has seen his profile improve since he transferred to IMG Academy, and his impressive summer put him squarely in first round territory. Wood has an athletic pedigree and a strong arm, and while his swing could use some mechanical tinkering, he has the speed to be a run producing centerfielder or right fielder depending on his growth.
San Francisco Giants
You have to go back to 2018 to find a high school pitcher that was chosen in the top 10, that was Carter Stewart who went 8th to the Braves and didn’t sign. Since then the first prep pitchers taken were Quinn Priester (18th, 2019, PIT) and Mick Abel (15th, 2020, PHI). Andrew Painter will likely continue this non top 10 trend barring an outstanding spring for Calvary Christian. That said, Painter does check off certain boxes. He has a strong four pitch mix, an ideal pitcher’s frame, athleticism and easy, repeatable mechanics. Painter is intriguing enough as his offerings show potential and yet he seems to bring a veteran mentality to the mound. The Giants could use a young starter like him, and he would thrive in the pitching friendly environment.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have shown a tendency in three of past four drafts to grab a faller capitalizing with Keston Hiura, Bryce Turang, and Garrett Mitchell. This year however, they could take advantage of a strong college pitching crop and grab a rising player. In a class rife with small school talent, Sam Bachman of Miami (Ohio) could be the first selected after showing a decreased walk rate from his freshman to sophomore campaigns and summer ball. Bachman also hit triple digits in fall ball, and with average command, could see his name rocket up boards if he has a strong spring.
Miami Marlins
Whether you believe the Marlins lucked into a postseason spot or Derek Jeter’s retooling of the Marlins is legit, you have to admire the Marlins, who have seemingly turned around the team’s reputation as a poorly run franchise. They can add onto an already strong farm season by going after the deep catching crop. While Adrian Del Castillo is the best offensive catcher, Henry Davis is arguably the best arm. Armed with a hose, Henry also calls a great game, and his technique is advanced. Where he falters is his receiving skills (6 passed balls in 2020). Davis is also a capable 5–7 hitter in the lineup, and will provide protection with at least average contact and power. Coming from Louisville, Davis will have plenty of eyes on him and his teammate Alex Binelas.
Cincinnati Reds
Though the Reds plan to tear everything down after making the postseason, they did manage to luck into an enviable draft position, with three picks in the top 50, pending Trevor Bauer’s contract. Thus, they could use this draft to stack up on controllable assets. They are in a good spot here to get an outfielder, and could nab small school darling Colton Cowser. Cowser has produced in his two seasons at Sam Houston State, earning a Team USA invite in his freshman season. One of the best lefthanded hitters in the class, Cowser’s one question mark is his future position. He’s a capable, if not great centerfielder, and has experience in right field as well. Cowser would profile as a 5 hitter in the Reds lineup depending on where he ends up in the field.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals surprised many this year by taking two-way player Masyn Winn in the draft, and while it may be more of an aberration than a trend, if they do continue they could potentially nab another versatile prepster right where he should land. Harry Ford could be the next uber catching prospect headed to Georgia Tech, but unlike Kevin Parada, it’s more likely he’ll be picked. Ford may be a prep catcher, but he is toolsy and positionally versatile, with scouts thinking he could play middle infield, or even outfielder. His speed almost certainly necessitates a move from behind the plate, and his bat will definitely be better served there as well. He’s a masher with top tier bat speed and would fit well with the Cardinal playing style.
Toronto Blue Jays
A year after bottoming out and lucking into Austin Martin, the Blue Jays could find themselves taking advantage of a class flush with prep infielders, nabbing a power hitting corner infield type. Izaac Pacheco is not as well regarded as well as Brady House, but he probably has the best or second best prep power. Pacheco is an above average fielder, but a below average runner which has already cemented his pro position at the hot corner. Still, Pacheco has tremendous physicality and greater value as a lefthanded bat. What determines his standing in the first round is plate adjustments. Like House, he sold out for power too much and ended up striking out more than usual. If he can shorten his swing, he could justify his first round value.
New York Yankees
In 2019, the Yankees tapped the New Jersey prep ranks, nabbing Delbarton teammates Anthony Volpe in the first round and Jack Leiter in the 20th round. Leiter didn’t sign, but the Yankees have an opportunity to grab an even more intriguing prospect in 2021. Depending on who you ask, Anthony Solometo is potentially the best left handed prep pitcher in the class with an incredibly deceptive delivery that some have compared to a hybrid of Madison Bumgarner and Mackenzie Gore. Solometo operates in the low 90’s and despite the unconventional delivery, has repeatable mechanics. His secondary pitches are average to above average, depending on how on he is, but when he’s on, the slider can be an effective weapon.
Chicago Cubs
In the past four drafts, the Cubs have either taken a high floor college pitcher or a high ceiling shortstop. This year could represent a departure from the trend as they are in a prime spot to grab a college outfielder. Sal Frelick may not be as sexy a name as Jud Fabian or Colton Cowser, and he may not have their power, but for what he lacks in the power department, he makes up for in the contact and speed department. Frelick is also an athlete, having played hockey and basketball in high school. Though he is a bit of a defensive work in progress, he’s played around the diamond, and could provide value as a pro utility player at worst. Frelick will play corner outfielder in the spring, and depending on how he fares, could justify a team drafting him as a pure outfielder.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox saw almost immediate dividends paid with their 2020 first rounder, as Garrett Crochet made his big league debut the same year as he was drafted without playing a single minor league game. That probably won’t happen again this year, especially with the team in win now mode. That said, they could still add a long term impact player in Joe Mack. A lefty hitting prep catcher from Upstate New York, Mack has a strong two strike approach at the plate. Mack also is a decent fielder with a strong arm. Mack isn’t a power hitter, but he is still enough of an asset to be a lineup presence as opposed to a liability.
Cleveland Indians
Despite selling off two major pieces of their rotation, the Indians still managed to put together a strong season on the back of Shane Bieber. Whether or not they decide they are still capable of competing for the division or are in rebuild mode, they still can take advantage of a faller in this year’s draft. While Ethan Wilson could find himself going higher on account of his strong lefthanded stick and above average power, he is limited defensively to left field. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as he’s a capable defender there, if a little weaker in arm strength. Still Wilson is valuable in his ability to get good contact off lefthanded pitching, giving him staying power in any lineup.
Atlanta Braves
Since the Carter Stewart fiasco in 2018, the Braves and GM Alex Anthopolous have erred on the side of caution, drafting easier sign college players. This year is no exception as the college crop is strong enough while the prep crop is weaker. The Braves could once again grab a high floor college arm, and possibly the best bet for them is former competitive balance pick Gunnar Hoglund. Part of a strong Mississippi rotation, Hoglund quietly put together an impressive SEC resume in his first two seasons, and probably would have been seen his stock rise more if COVID hadn't shut down the season. Hoglund throws at a low to mid 90’s tick and complements with a mid 80’s slider with bite and a changeup. Hoglund would be a nice complement to 2020 first rounder Jared Shuster, and considering he’s average to above average across the board with potential for growth, he could at least be a midrotation option.
Oakland Athletics
The year is 2032 and the Oakland A’s are still optimistic that Kyler Murray will report to spring training. In all seriousness, that ship sailed the minute Murray won Rookie of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals and they traded for DeAndre Hopkins, so it’s definitely time to start looking for a replacement. If the A’s are still looking college bat, they could go down to Fayetteville and nab Christian Franklin. A year after Heston Kjerstad wowed scouts until the COVID shutdown, Franklin also caught the attention of scouts. His hit tool is still a work in progress as he needs to continue to cut down his strikeouts, but what he lacks in the hitting department he certainly makes up for with plus speed, defense, and arm. If he can continue to show the growth he did in 2020, he has a future as a starting centerfielder, something the A’s hoped to get with Murray.
Minnesota Twins
It’s been a while since the Twins took a pitcher in the draft, and with the amount of arm talent this year, it is possible they break their pitching fast. The Twins are in a good spot to grab a lefthanded pitcher, and one who would definitely intrigue them is Mississippi State’s Christian MacLeod. Though MacLeod only got in four starts before the COVID shutdown his contributions were greatly appreciated in part due to JT Ginn’s Tommy John surgery. MacLeod is is a pitchability lefty with a particularly strong out pitch in his curveball. His delivery is a 3/4 slot, and his mechanics are easily repeatable. MacLeod is one of the more advanced arms in the class and could be one of the first 2021 draftees in the majors.
San Diego Padres
The Padres finally broke through in 2020 thanks to a strong core and an aggressive approach during the season. Unlike their go-for-broke approach in 2015, this iteration of the Padres seems to be designed with sustainability in mind. With a strong farm system they can do whatever they like, and they are in a prime spot to grab a tremendous young local talent in Mason Pelio. Part of an impressive recruiting class, Pelio showed he meant business the minute he stepped foot on campus. Pelio’s fastball operates in the mid to high 90’s with potential to get faster with more growth. He complements that with a changeup that is above average. Pelio has a good feel for his pitches but he definitely needs work on commanding them. He needs to develop his slider/curve and have another strong spring if he wants to get in the first round.
Tampa Bay Rays
Pennsylvania has become a bit of a prep baseball hotbed as of late, and considering the Rays dipped there this past draft in taking Nick Bitsko. They could make a return trip next summer and grab outfielder Benny Montgomery. Montgomery is one of the fastest runners, if not the fastest runner in the class, and along with solid arm strength and defense, has the makings of a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder. Where he falters is his bat with a developmental at best contact approach. Montgomery does have power potential though so maybe some fine tuning could help him. Though Montgomery has the potential to be a mid first round pick, he is committed to Virginia, which could make him a difficult sign. Still the Rays have been aggressive before, and could make a strong push to sign him like they did Bitsko, who was also a Virginia commit.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers finally won a World Series, and look to be a threat for the forseeable future. In a class with a strong outfield crop, the Dodgers could find themselves dipping into the prep class. One particular name of interest is the ultra athletic Pennsylvania prep outfielder Lonnie White. Hailing from Kobe Bryant’s alma mater, Malvern Prep, Lonnie created intrigue with a strong showcase performance this summer, when he was being looked at primarily for football. The Penn State commit is exceptionally fast and capable of covering serious ground in centerfield. His bat needs some work and more exposure to higher velocity could serve him well in helping him adjust. Still White would be selected on potential alone, as his athleticism makes him an intriguing developmental prospect.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds could use this pick to nab a faller, and the one player that Minor League Madhouse sees falling is North Carolina prep shortstop Kahlil Watson. Watson has average to solid tools across the board, with his speed ensuring he will hit leadoff. Though listed at 5'9", Watson plays with a presence. He can get overly aggressive at the plate, but is still capable of impacting the game enough to be an average hitter at worst. Watson does have some character concerns, but they aren’t egregious enough for him to be pushed out of the first round. The Reds would still be in a prime position to take advantage of the uber class and get him to be their future shortstop if he lands here.
COMPETITIVE BALANCE PICKS
Miami Marlins
The Marlins capitalize on a falling lefty and grab Josh Hartle. Hartle is average to above average across the board, but his build is great for a pitcher and his pitching IQ is impressive. He’s not overpowering, but he is crafty enough to get outs. He should be easily swayed from his Wake Forest commit, though a strong spring could put him back in the first round proper.
Detroit Tigers
Pitching coach Chris Fetter is reunited with his southpaw as the Tigers grab Steven Hajjar. Hajjar has been limited in his time with the Wolverines due to an ACL tear and the COVID shutdown, but his stuff is still solid with room for growth. A pro grade changeup complemented with a low to mid 90’s fastball and a deceptive delivery makes him an intriguing watch this spring, the question is how much B1G baseball action Hajjar will see, as the schedule is still somewhat in flux.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers grab an ultra versatile infielder and the final part of Boston College’s vaunted trio in Cody Morissette. Morissette has an athletic pedigree, and while he’s primarily a slap hitter, his IQ and growth potential ensures there’s more coming. Morrissette could be a pro shortstop, though he can also play third base and second base.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays continue to showcase their affinity for versatility and grab the best two-way player in the draft, Braden Montgomery. Montgomery has average to solid present offensive tools, where he could solidify his standing is on the mound as he tops out at 95 and has two decent secondary offerings.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds finish up their first round by taking possibly the most intriguing small school arm in Mason Black. From Patriot League school Lehigh, Black has arguably the best fastball among collegians, and supplements it with a biting slider. His change is developmental at best, and his control needs work. He can maintain his velocity, though the question is what his future role would be. At worst, he could be a dominating closer in the vein of Aroldis Chapman or Archie Bradley.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins double down on lefthanded pitching and grab Arizona prepster Brock Selvidge. Though Selvidge’s approach needs work as he tends to push his power more, he is starting to get more of a feel for his fastball which has life to it and operates at a low to mid 90’s clip. Still the Twins could see him a starting pitcher, which based on potential alone could vault him to back half of the first round.
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And there you have it. See you all in 2021, the next mock will either be late January or early to mid February, around the start of the college season. Until then. stay safe, stay healthy.
