2021 MLB Mock Draft: April Edition
This has definitely been an interesting spring, no doubt. Between one of the strongest prep shortstop classes in recent history, an arms race among college teammates, and a Thanos snap of the college outfield crop, we are certainly in for an interesting stretch run in the draft. And with the timing of MLBPipeline’s expanded top draft prospect list, now’s a perfect opportunity to take yet another mock draft stab.
As usual, the parameters are simple, picks are made based on organizational depth, unless there is a clear cut connection or draft tendency.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Though Leiter finally showed his mortality in the Tennessee series, there’s no doubt now that he’s at least earned the edge in this three man race for the top pick. The Pirates still get an ace level starter who has light mileage and a big league pedigree. Nonetheless this pick isn’t set in stone, as Lawlar or Rocker could easily roar back and Leiter could falter down the stretch.
Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS, Texas
Lawlar has undoubtedly cemented his status as the top prep player in the class, however the debate will rage as to whether he’s good enough to beat the two headed Vanderbilt monster. Still, don’t rule out the possibility that the Pirates consider taking him instead of a Vanderbilt pitcher. As of now though, this is probably the midpoint of where Lawlar ends up.
Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS, California
I’ve long been hesitant to place Mayer in the top 10, but he’s basically called me out and at this point, denying it any longer would make me look contrarian at best and idiotic at worst. Mayer’s tools rate above average to solid across the board, and his spring has justifed him going top 10. Because of the uncertainty of the top 4, this pick is pretty interchangeable; if Lawlar falls to three, he’ll most certainly end up here.
Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Not so much an indictment on Rocker as a testament to how good the prep shortstop class is, Rocker is still capable of jumping back into top 3 territory if he can finish out the year strong. Still, if Rocker does find himself falling this far, Boston shouldn't have to think twice about nabbing him.
Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall, Oklahoma
Jobe’s meteoric rise this spring has not only taken him past Andrew Painter as the top prep pitcher in the class, it may have pushed him into the top 10, making him the most likely candidate to break the drought of prep pitchers in the top 10. The Orioles have shown they’re not afraid of helium prep pitching, as evidenced by their selection of Grayson Rodriguez in 2018. With a strong arsenal and a great build, he’s a sure bet to go pro.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis’s strong spring has vaulted him into top 10 consideration, and his veteran presence behind the plate has been key for a Louisville team that has serious title aspirations. Henry’s biggest value however is arm, an absolute hose that makes him a terror to anyone on the basepaths. With an impressive stable of young hurlers coming through the D-Backs system in the coming years, Davis would be an excellent backstop for them.
Kansas City Royals: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
With the college outfield crop underwhelming this year, Frelick took the opportunity and has grown his stock to top 10 territory. His scrappiness and athleticism is perfect for the Royals, who like players cut from his mold. Frelick may not have the power that most teams would value, but he does change the game with solid contact and plus speed.
Colorado Rockies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
In another draft, Hoglund easily would be the top pitcher in the class, however when your competition is Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, the circumstances are out of your control. Considering Hoglund leads the nation in strikeouts, plus his frame and easy mechanics, Hoglund would be an ideal future ace for a Rockies team that desperately needs something to look forward to.
Los Angeles Angels: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
The Angels get the second of the three Tier 2 arms. Madden has been on radars since he was a senior at Cypress Ranch, and as Texas’s best pitcher he’s done nothing but justify his standing as a first round pitcher. Madden’s repeatable delivery and propensity to attack hitters make him a very likely quick riser candidate for an Angels team that will find themselves in a truly competitive division in the coming years.
New York Mets: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
The Mets have shown an affinity for pitchers with standout pitches, and Sam Bachman is no exception. With a fastball that can hit triple digits and a biting slider complemented by a solid change, Bachman has a truly devastating arsenal. All he needs to do to continue warranting his rising stock is show consistency and not tire out down the stretch. Even with the lower level of competition, there’s no doubt Bachman has earned his spot in the first round.
Washington Nationals: Adrian Del Castillo, C/1B. Miami (Florida)
Del Castillo may not have solidified his preseason standing as the best hitter in the class, and his defensive uncertainties haven’t helped, but even with his stock falling, he still ends up in a solid spot at the 11th pick. Del Castillo’s bat is advanced enough that he could quickly rise through the ranks of the Nationals organization, not unlike Ryan Zimmerman did when he was picked in 2005.
Seattle Mariners: Brady House, SS/3B, Winder Barrow HS, Georgia
House has seen his stock fluctuate all spring after there were concerns about his quiet summer, and while he does have top 10 potential, this has to be his absolute floor. Though he’s played shortstop at the prep level, scouting consensus sees him as a future hot corner. Much like Pete Crow-Armstrong this past year, House has definitely made a strong case to show last summer as a fluke and that he’s legit. The Mariners grab their heir to Kyle Seager right at this spot.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
The Phillies grab the best lefthander in the class and the best changeup as well. Wicks has seen his stock rise since last summer and it appears to continue to do so. Given the Phillies last dalliance with college pitching has yielded positive results, it may be time to reach back into that well and get someone who can stabilize what is an uncertain future rotation.
San Francisco Giants: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS, Florida
The Giants are in a good spot here to grab one of the prep pitchers, and Painter, who has been surpassed by Jackson Jobe. Painter however is enviable because he’s probably the most pro-ready prep pitcher, while at the same time his professional ceiling can actually be higher. The mechanics are easy and repeatable. His curve is an absolute 12–6 hammer as well. Painter would give the Giants a homegrown ace potential pitcher they haven’t seen since Bumgarner.
Milwaukee Brewers: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS, Georgia
Chandler is going to be one of the most difficult picks to sign while also being one of the most sought after. Coming from the same high school as Kumar Rocker (Incidentally they overlapped as freshman and senior in 2018), Chandler committed to Clemson in both baseball and football. Chandler is a two way player now, but he might provide more value as a pitcher. The Brewers may have to get creative in order to sign him.
Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS, North Carolina
The Marlins take advantage of the prep shortstop class and grab a player who is toolsy across the board. Though Watson is raw in some areas (power swing), he has more advanced mental skillsets too, particularly his plate discipline and his defensive prowess. His speed is also enviable too and in the Marlins park, that could provide an advantage in the gaps. Though there were initial concerns about his attitude, it appears those concerns are miniscule in comparision to his potential.
Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
McLain is definitely the most controversial pick in this draft, as he’s started to heat up as of late and could bring himself back to a higher spot. That said, his slow start pro grade tools, coupled with the emergence of prep infielders like House and Mayer have made him hard to truly pinpoint. Still, much like Jon India right now, McLain represents an infielder who has solid hands and some pop potential the type that will be greatly emphasized at Great American Ballpark.
St. Louis Cardinals: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser rebounded enough from a quiet start to his spring to cement his OF2 status in the draft, which puts him in top 20 consideration. With 12 home runs in the college season, it’s likely his stock will continue to rise, but the Cardinals should be his floor. The true question is where Cowser will end up as a pro, as he’s played right field, but has done well enough in combines to entertain the centerfield conversation.
Toronto Blue Jays: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS, Pennsylvania
Last year the Blue Jays lucked into the consensus best prospect in Austin Martin. This year they could find themselves in a similar situation with the best prep outfield prospect in Benny Montgomery. Montgomery is the fastest player in the class and he backs it up with impressive power potential and defensive prowess. Montgomery will be a professional centerfielder and he’d be a great complement to a young and emergent lineup, especially if his swing mechanics can be tinkered.
New York Yankees: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS, New York
Let’s be honest here, Anthony Siegler is looking more and more like a bust, Josh Breaux is looking more and more like a DH at best, and Austin Wells may or may not stick at catcher. In Joe Mack, the Yankees finally nail down the catcher position while also providing a 5–6 hitter in the lineup. Mack commands the game well behind the plate and he’s definitely not a lumberer.
Chicago Cubs: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS, Massachusetts
The Cubs grab one of the hardest prep hitters in Baez, and also grab one of the strongest arms in the class. Baez isn’t a speedster, but his arm will certainly make it difficult for anyone who tries to take advantage of the gaps. The only concern is while Baez’s power is truly solid, he does sell out a lot and can get fooled. Still, if he can shorten his swing, he’ll be a dangerous hitter for the Cubs.
Chicago White Sox: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS, Georgia
Though the White Sox haven’t dipped into the prep ranks since 2012 when they grabbed athletic wunderkind but ultimate bust Courtney Hawkins, the White Sox may finally break that trend for the next Georgia Tech catching commit. With Kevin Parada likely commited until 2022, Ford, who is movable and could provide value in the infield or outfield as well, could be the type of “swiss army knife” player that the White Sox could use to really add dimension to their lineup.
Cleveland Indians: Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan HS, North Carolina
The best prep lefty in the class, Hartle’s value is more as a pitchability lefty as opposed to a dominator. Hartle’s stuff hasn't even begun to reach his apex, and scouting consensus has it that if he fills out his skinny frame he could potentially be a high level starter.
Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Braves double dip on Demon Deacons starters, grabbing Ryan Cusick a year after taking his teammate Jared Shuster. Cusick has seen his profile rise all spring, and it has helped that he’s capable of reaching triple digits. His arsenal behind the fastball is above average. The only concern is his control, but if he can harness the strikeout stuff that has helped him since last summer that concern will be addressed later.
Oakland A’s: James Wood, OF, IMG Academy
Wood at one point was considered the best prep outfielder in the class, but an unimpressive start has plummeted his stock. The A’s stand to benefit most from this and grab someone whose athleticism makes him a first round candidate. Wood’s bat does need some fine tuning, but on the potential alone, the A’s may finally forget about Kyler Murray and focus on turning him into their next homegrown outfield stud.
Minnesota Twins: Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra HS, California
The Twins grab arguably the most intriguing prep pitcher in the class. a pint sized rocket with pro level stuff and a great arm slot. Jump has been described as an analytics dream, and his advanced feel for pitching not to mention his solid spring has made him a strong candidate to go in the back half of the first round.
San Diego Padres: Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace has been underrated all spring, but he’s definitely good enough to warrant back of the first round consideration, especially from a Padres team flush in farm system talent. With the exception of a below average changeup, Mace is your perfect “Jack of all trades” safe option, Initially viewed as a contact pitcher, Mace has cut his contact rate down this spring and could move higher as the season and tournament progress.
Tampa Bay Rays: Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska
The Rays once again play Raysball and grab the best collegiate two-way player in Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach may be a bit of an overreach but with two picks in the first round, the Rays can use the money saved on Schwellenbach to grab a harder to sign prep or college kid.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Lonnie White, OF, Malvern Prep, Pennsylvania
The Dodgers grab a long term prep project, one who is ultra athletic and, depending on how serious his pro aspirations are, could have a high ceiling. White is another multisport commit, this time to Penn State as a WR/OF, but the summer showcase circuit last year showed for the first time that he could be a first round talent. I’d also be hard pressed to mention he comes from Kobe Bryant’s alma mater.
COMPENSATORY PICK
Cincinnati Reds: Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Even though Hill will be on the shelf likely until mid 2022, the Reds should be excited at the prospect of getting a top 10 caliber player at this spot. Hill did not have the smoothest 2021, going from the clear cut number 3 pitcher in the class to a day 1 question mark, but after it was announced he needed Tommy John, scouts may give him some leeway, especially considering he still has ace potential.
CB PICKS
Miami Marlins: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Though Fabian has not met the expectations that were set for him when he arrived in Gainesville, his wood bat track record should be enough to keep him at least in Day 1 consideration. Fabian’s power certainly will allow him to be a top half of the lineup threat, especially with the Marlins, and he’d be a nice complement to JJ Bleday.
Detroit Tigers: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
The Tigers get a high floor small school lefty who needs very little mechanical adjustments. Fordham as of late has developed solid starting pitching with John Stankiewicz signing a free agent deal with Minnesota. Mikulski would have been a top 10 round pick had the draft been more than 5 rounds, mainly in part
Milwaukee Brewers: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The Brewers ensure they sign Bubba Chandler away from his college commitment and get some insurance through a big league ready righty. McGreevy’s arsenal and skillset ranges from above average to solid across the board, and he has some of the best control in the class. His pitches have shown more movement, and he’s picked up from his 2020 start, which makes him an ideal option for any team looking for a sure bet.
Tampa Bay Rays: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS, South Carolina
The Rays use the money they saved by taking Schwellenbach on an ultra-talented, but raw centerfield prospect. Taylor hasn’t dedicated as much time to baseball as he has his other two sports, but the potential is there and he’d fit what the Rays are looking for.
Cincinnati Reds: Dylan Ross, RHP, Northwest Florida State College
Ross is a bit of a project, but his frame not to mention his velocity uptick the past two seasons and an impressive summer showing in the Florida Collegiate league make him an intriguing flier option, especially if the Reds want to guarantee they sign Hill and McLain. He shouldn’t be too hard to sway from his committment to Georgia.
Minnesota Twins: Luca Tresh, C, North Carolina State
The Twins could go in any direction here, but Tresh has shown that he’s just as good, if not better than his predecessor. Even if Tresh’s catching development falters (Remember he was behind Bailey for 2 years) he does provide Adrian Del Castillo-type value as a bat first player.
