2022 MLB Mock Draft: Merry Mockmas
Welp, looks like #MockSZN is going to compete with #LockSzn for the time being.
With MLB Pipeline dropping their top 100 draft prospect list, the time has come to evolve the mocks from a slideshow to a full on explanatory mock.
A couple things to note. First, you may notice that the Dodgers are not included in this mock, and that’s because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold that triggers a ten pick drop. So for all you Dodgers fans hoping to enjoy this #MockSZN, I’m sorry, but that’s the price you pay. Merry Mockmas.
Though neither player signed before the lockout started, the draft pick compensation for Trevor Story and Nick Castellanos ensures that, should either player sign a contract for more than $50 million, the Rockies and Reds are entitled to compensatory picks after the first round. Given the high likelihood that both will earn mega contracts once the lockout ends, expect that compensation to stick.
As per usual, the picks are made based on organizational depth barring any clear cut connections. And as you guessed, the picks will be based with Pipeline as a guideline.
Baltimore Orioles
Unlike 2019 when it was the Adley Rutschman show the entire time, the Orioles find themselves in an unenviable position regarding who they feel is the best 1–1. And given this may be the very last time they are rewarded for fielding perhaps the most obvious tank job in the history of tank jobs, the Orioles will really need to make this draft count.
Mike Elias has shown that he’s willing to sacrifice a higher ceiling at the top to get a higher ceiling later on, and I don’t think that changes this year. Don’t be surprised if a college bat like Jace Jung is the pick here. Jung is definitely not a blatant signability pick due in part to his pro grade offensive profile, but he probably would give the Orioles some breathability should a harder to sign prepster land later on. Jung has shown that he’s a bat-first player, he outperformed his brother Josh in his first full season at Texas Tech. Where he falters is his defense. Initially his brother’s heir at third base, Jung’s arm did not translate so he was moved to second to try and mask his deficiency. Even if Jung is a defensive liability, his offense ensures his staying power in a lineup that benefits from a hitter friendly environment.
Jung would pair very well with the current group of incoming Orioles talents, offering protecting in the lineup behind the likes of Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and Ryan Mountcastle.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite a truly horrific season for the Snakes, it appears that they do have a significant amount of foundational pieces either ready to go or waiting in the wings. Potential lineup stalwarts like Seth Beer, Jake McCarthy, Drew Ellis, and Geraldo Perdomo could ride the next wave of young and talented homegrowns, while the pitching staff continues to develop.
This is one of those drafts where there isn’t much of a drop off between 1–1 and 1–2, basically the D-Backs have the chance to further set the tone for how the rest of the draft falls. For them, they could continue to build one of the most talented middle infields in the league by selecting Terrmarr Johnson of Mays High School. Johnson is arguably the best prep prospect in the class, depending on who you ask. Offensively, he is elite as they come with plate discipline and a sweet stroke not unlike that of a Silver Slugger. Defensively, Johnson is an athlete, with true twitch and high level instinct, but his arm limits him to second base, making him an ideal double play partner with 2021 draftee Jordan Lawlor.
Signability does not appear to be an issue as his ceiling and lack of college commitment make him an easy target. If Johnson does fall to the second pick, Arizona should absolutely pounce.
Texas Rangers
Kudos to the Rangers for what they’ve done so far this offseason. Signing two of the game’s best infielders and a bona fide starter whose only issue was pitching in the hell that was Denver will definitely jumpstart their chances at catching Houston next year and get them out of the basement hopefully. And with the likely youth infusion also coming, that being Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and Josh Jung, the Rangers appear to have a solid balance of homegrown and bought talent that can be sustainable.
Though the Rangers saw promise in Adolis Garcia, and Nick Solak appears to be a decent option, the Rangers don’t seem to have much in the pipeline after them, and now would be a good opportunity for them to nab one of the talented prepsters. Why not go the pedigree route once again, and nab the son of 2009 Texas Ranger Andruw Jones? Yes, get ready to feel old because his son Druw Jones is the top draft prospect, at least according to Pipeline. Whereas Terrmarr Johnson is the best hitter in the class, Jones, from Wesleyan HS in Georgia is the fastest runner and best defender. Jones is one of those players who players dread hitting the ball to, because if he doesn’t kill you with his legs and glove, he will gun you down with his pro grade arm. Where Jones falters of course is his offense, but even though his swing needs some tweaking, when he connects, it’s loud power.
Jones has the potential to be just as good, if not better than his father, and if not that, he’s still capable of being a solid defender in the outfield, think Byron Buxton but with a better stick. What may knock him is his Vanderbilt commitment, which could cost a significant amount of the Rangers bonus pool.
Pittsburgh Pirates
For as frustrating as it is to root for the Pirates and their penny pinching ownership, you can’t help but applaud what they did this past July in the draft. Henry Davis undoubtedly earned the top pick honors due to his insane junior year, and the Pirates still managed to save enough money to go back in and grab four additional high ceiling prepsters in Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White Jr, and Braylon Bishop. That right there is an A++ draft, the question is whether or not the Pirates actually use those players or they end up wasting away like their last bona fide draft class in 2018.
Yet another example of why the draft does need a retool, the Pirates find themselves in a position where the leftovers are just as appetizing, and the only question is who to take. The Pirates have been known to spend the big bucks at the draft, so perhaps they actually go for the best available talent left on the board, that being IMG Academy’s Elijah Green. Green has athletic bloodlines, being the son of former NFL Pro-Bowl tight end Eric Green, who coincidentally started his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Aside from his hit tool which grades as above average, Green has solid tools across the board. He’s a 70 grade runner and has 60 grade power, fielding, and arm. In short, Green appears to have all the major league attributes. Green needs to improve his pitch recognition as he did struggle on the showcase circuit, but otherwise, unless he absolutely falters this spring, there should be no major concerns.
The Pirates haven’t had a dynamic prep centerfielder like Green since Andrew McCutchen, and should Green be on the board at 4, it would be a no-brainer to pick him and have him usher in the next generation of young talents. He does have a commitment to Miami, but as previously noted, the Pirates shouldn’t have an issue meeting his asking price.
Washington Nationals
There are World Series hangovers, and then there are outright implosions. The Nationals are an example of the latter having finished in last for the second straight season. 2019 appears to be a distant memory now. With all but Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, and Victor Robles gone, the time is now for the Nats to start retooling.
Whereas the first four picks seem to be a toss up, pick five is where the chaos could potentially start. The Nats could continue to run on prep kids, but there’s a solid string of college bats here. For this mock, the Nats go with the top pro prospect in the Cape League, and the small school darling of 2022, James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter. DeLauter was a decorated West Virginia prepster who impressed in the COVID abbreviated 2020 season and followed it up with an even better 2021. An invite to the Cape led to him discovering his power stroke, sharing the league lead in home runs with teammate Tyler Locklear, and ultimately being rewarded with top prospect accolades in both the Cape and Perfect Game’s top prospect list. It’s usually a good sign when a player’s performance translates to wood, and DeLauter has the chance to be the best college hitter in the class this spring. Defensively, DeLauter is a capable defender in the corners, with an arm that played centerfield his first two seasons at JMU.
DeLauter represents a departure from the “Nats take a Boras client with an injury history”, but talent like this is hard to find, and while this is a very college bat heavy class, there’s a good chance he will impress this spring.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins may not have been able to replicate their 2020 success, but they did see some promise thanks to the likes of Jazz Chisholm and Trevor Rogers and the emergence of Sandy Alcantara as a solid ace. With solid moves like trading for Joey Wendle and signing Avi Garcia, the Marlins are making a case to at least be competitive in an NL East that is going to get competitive this upcoming season, if that season ever happens.
The Marlins are likely going to stumble upon a Tier 1 college bat, and none will generate as much buzz as reigning Freshman of the Year and LSU transfer Jacob Berry. Berry, who followed his coach Jay Johnson when he took over for Paul Mainieri, was absolutely outstanding his first year with the University of Arizona. He was tops in most offensive categories at the school and in the Pac 12, finishing the season highly decorated. Much like Jace Jung, Berry is a bat first player with defensive limitations. He primarily DHed at Arizona, and LSU has tried him at the hot corner, though his defense leaves much to be desired and will likely move him across the diamond, if not in left field.
Regardless of Berry’s defensive limitations, his offensive profile fits well in loanDepot Park’s expanse and he’d likely slot in the middle of the Marlins’ lineup as soon as he’s ready to take over for Brian Anderson or Jesus Aguilar. He and JJ Bleday would make for a dangerous combination, one not seen since the likes of Bour and Stanton.
Chicago Cubs
Let’s face it, these are not your 2016 Chicago Cubs anymore. With the existing core gone and with the team retooling from the ground up, save for a pre-lockout big signing of Marcus Stroman, it’s clear the Cubs are heading into 2022 with the expectation of starting all over.
The Cubs find themselves in the middle of a quandary, do they continue the run on hitters, or do they break the cycle and grab the first pitcher? They’d be well within reason to do either. The fact that last year’s Gatorade Player of the Year, Buford RHP Dylan Lesko is the ninth rated prospect on the Pipeline Board, appears to be more a testament to how top heavy the bat class is. Lesko absolutely dominated his junior season, and with a strong three pitch mix highlighted by a devastating changeup and a mid to high 90’s heater, Lesko checks the box stuff wise. He has a veteran mentality and his mechanics appear to be very polished.
Lesko is committed to Vanderbilt so he might cost more to sign, and if he repeats his junior year, there’s a very good chance he doesn’t even make it to the 7 spot.
Minnesota Twins
Regardless of how bad the Twins finished this year, it’s clear that there is a foundation there. With most of their young stars locked up and a couple more in the pipeline, they could concievably make a strong case to compete in a weak AL Central in a year or two. Plus the assets they recouped for trading Jose Berrios will definitely pay dividends.
What they do need is more pitching and while drafting Chase Petty was a step in the right direction, it may be a good idea to double down. Before the 2021 season, Alabama lefty Connor Prielipp was considered a solid 1–1 candidate based on a COVID abbreviated masterful 2020 season, however he underwent Tommy John surgery after injuring himself in his first start this year and is shut down until at least the beginning of the summer. Regardless of the injury bug, Prielipp shouldn’t be dinged for Tommy John, as stuff wise, he’s got some of the best in his class. His slider has the knee buckling drop and velocity that makes it a true “Out” pitch, and he complements it with a lively mid 90’s fastball. He does need some mechanical tinkering, but he has solid control that will serve him well while he rebuilds himself.
Prielipp may be shut down for the 2022 spring season, but he has the opportunity to regain lost momentum for a couple weeks in the Cape this summer. If he does impress, it would be hard to keep him out of the top 10.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals surprised many last year when the opted to draft Connecticut prepster Frank Mozzicato with the seventh pick. Mozzicato, who had come off of a spring unrivaled by any, was seen as both a gamble and a money saver, and that’s what the Royals did. Whether Mozzicato can translate that success to the minors is another story, but it’s highly doubtful the Royals run the same course again.
If there was a true “No brainer” pick in this year’s draft, it would be this one, as GM Dayton Moore has the opportunity to bring his son, Arkansas 2B Robert Moore into the organization. The younger Moore is by no means a nepotism/favor pick, in his freshman season at Arkansas, he exhibited the clutch gene and showed tremendous pop for a second baseman. Moore is your old school throwback second baseman, a gritty, undersized type who can change the game with a gold glove level glove. Moore does most things well, though he’s likely relegated to the right side of the infield due to his arm. Moore is also young for the class, he will turn 20 in March.
Moore would make an excellent double play partner for 2019 first rounder Bobby Witt Jr. His ability to hit from both sides of the plate also serve as a plus for him. A strong string may actually bump him ahead of the Royals though.
Colorado Rockies
Don’t be surprised if when the 2023 mocks come out, the Rockies are strictly at the top, barring changes to the draft order. Losing Trevor Story and Jon Gray in the same offseason is going to hurt, and it’s clear the Rockies have no intention of competing next year.
This is probably the pick I’m the least confident will happen barring a spectacular collapse, but should Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee fall to the tenth pick, the Rockies would be hard pressed to grab him. Lee was a highly touted prepster in 2019, but opted to play for his dad at Cal Poly, a move that paid immediate dividends after he recovered from a 2020 injury. The younger Lee has done nothing but hit at every level he’s been, whether it’s at Poly or in the Cape or the CNT. Lee furthers his skillset with a captain’s mentality in the field, he’s a college shortstop now, but will likely move to the hot corner in the future. In an environment like Colorado, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for him to be another heralded infielder in a long line of heralded infielders for the Rockies.
Lee would be a nice complement to the dynamic outfield duo of Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen. In Denver’s environment he definitely could be a heart of the order bat, capable of being a franchise player.
New York Mets (Rocker)
2022 is going to be a make or break year for the Mets. With an owner that has shown a commitment to both buying and building a contender Dodgers style, and a potential war chest of draft picks, not to mention a GM and manager with experience, the Mets have a prime opportunity to kickstart a firm hold on the NL East for a while if things click.
On the draft front, the Mets do have four picks, this is the one that they felt was more important than throwing money at Kumar Rocker. After trading away their 2020 first round pick, centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong for a two month rental of Javy Baez, they may have to dip from that positional pool again. Given new GM Billy Eppler’s propensity to draft athletes, the Mets may opt to grab one here, that being Stanford’s Brock Jones. Jones is an athlete because he came to the Cardinal as a two-sporter, in addition to outfield, he played safety for the football team. After quitting football to play baseball full time, he flourished, showing an enviable power/speed combination both in the spring and the summer. Jones’s time with Stanford’s special teams unit should help him play a defensive centerfield, he was a gunner after all. Where he falters is his arm. It’s not terrible, but it does need improvement. Considering how raw Jones is, perhaps it is a bit early to write him off in that department. With that said, Jones does have the potential profile of being a leadoff hitter for the Mets, a true speedster who has surprise pop as well.
Jones definitely could put himself in the position to be Starling Marte’s successor, and should have plenty of time to refine himself and still be a viable contributor during the Mets five year competitive timetable.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers seemed to turn a corner this year after spending the past four years lost in the AL Central basement. But it appears that they are planning on competing this year, with some major league ready prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, as well as free agent signing Javy Baez, along with the existing core.
The Tigers operated on a philosophy for a while of taking electric arms, and last year’s selection of Jackson Jobe was no exception. However, they could potentially find another electric arm this year in their own backyard, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep’s Brock Porter. Porter has arguably the best fastball, capable of hitting triple digits. He complements it with a pro grade changeup. Porter has an ace’s build and his mechanics are sound as well. Where he falters is his feel, if he can get better spin rate on his pitches then he could be a legit top 10 pick.
Porter could potentially be a star if he bulks up this spring, and barring a hard commitment to Clemson could be the first Michigan prepster to go in the first round since Nick Plummer in 2016.
Los Angeles Angels
I’ve long harped on the Angels and Billy Eppler for not drafting a first round arm during his tenure, and it appears his successor actually listened, as not only did the Angels draft Reid Detmers in 2020, but they followed that up with taking a pitcher with every selection they had in the 2021 draft. On top of that, nabbing Noah Syndergaard on a one year “prove it” deal was definitely a smart move.
With pitcher not being a pressing need at the present time, it’s time to figure out where else the Angels can improve. For them, they could be in a prime position to grab arguably the best catching prospect in the class. Kevin Parada would have been a first round draft pick had 2020 not happened the way it did. Parada ended up going to Georgia Tech, or Catcher U, and immediately flourished. Though he’s not at the same level as some of his contemporaries in regards to arm strength, he’s a do-it-all lunch pailer who can have a positive impact both at and behind the plate. Parada is a solid 5 or 6 hitter, someone who will get on base and contribute occasional pop. He can hold his own on the base paths, and showed marked improvement in fall ball that could help him hold the top catcher spot in the class.
Parada also is a southern California native, a 90 minute drive from Anaheim, so he’s practically in the Angels’ backyard. The only thing that may drive up his asking price is his leverage as a Draft Eligible Sophomore.
New York Mets
The Mets’ actual pick lands here and after landing an athletic outfielder from Stanford, the question is how they follow that up. A system thinned by trades and promotions definitely needs some talent infusion, especially on the pitching side.
The Mets were scared away from signing Kumar Rocker last year due to an unreported and, to this day, mysterious medical issue they found, but that medical issue was unknown at the time. On the other hand, everyone in the scouting industry was aware of UConn lefty Reggie Crawford’s junior year going up in smoke due to Tommy John. Regardless, Crawford is another one of those intrigue picks that has enough potential and stuff in a limited sample size to keep an eye on. Crawford especially dazzled this summer for the CNT, topping out at triple digits. Crawford has two pitches in his arsenal right now, the fastball and a pro grade slider. He is a control artist as well, something which should give him points, and his frame is ideal from a starters perspective. As we have seen in recent drafts, Tommy John isn’t the dealbreaker it used to be, and chances are if the Mets don’t take a shot on him, someone else will.
Crawford only has 8 spring innings under his belt, and despite his ability to play first base, it seems the most likely path for him is to stay on the mound, so don’t expect him to fill a 2019 Shohei Ohtani type role for the Huskies. Still, the Mets have drafted Tommy John arms before, taking 2019 Freshman of the Year JT Ginn in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft. Crawford’s potential should offset the injury.
San Diego Padres
It seems like every year the Padres “win” the offseason, it translates to a big letdown during the season. It happened in 2016, and it happened yet again this year. With a lot of money on the books and a young superstar the team would ideally want to keep happy, there needs to be a lot of work done as soon as the offseason is back in gear. Hiring Bob Melvin at the very least is a good start.
Whether it is a strong hitting class or a weak pitching class, the likelihood that we won’t see the first tier 1 righty college arm until the mid first round is plausible unless someone makes a big leap this spring. At the present time though, the Padres could have first dibs. For the Padres, they could dip back to the same well that netted them Ryan Weathers, and grab his high school teammate, Tennessee’s Blade Tidwell. Tidwell is a physical specimen with a toolbox of pitches including a mid to high 90’s heater, a devastating slider, and an above average change and curve. Tidwell is an innings eater, and he has big game ability as well. Even at his present build, Tidwell still has room for growth and if he continues to bulk up could potentially reach top ten status.
The Padres would be lucky if Tidwell happens to fall into their lap. Having a big game pitcher like him would be ideal for a team that hasn’t had a big homegrown ace in a while and are still waiting on some draft dividends.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians appear to be at a crossroads, as the team is clearly ready to divest the remainder of their 2016 assets and start anew. With that said, a much needed cash infusion from David Blitzer with the potential to buy out Larry Dolan may actually be the spark that reinvigorates the franchise and compels them to start spending.
To say the Guardians need a stud outfielder is an understatement. Nothing against those that are currently in place and in the system, but they can definitely improve the group. While the studs have all likely gone, the next likely option is to go for a jack of all trades outfielder, like Virginia Tech’s Gavin Cross. Cross came into prominence in the Covid shortened 2020, then followed it up with another solid showing the next year. Cross doesn’t excel at any particular tool, he’s a do-it-all who plays for a non-ACC power. That said, Cross is capabale of being a 5 or 6 in a lineup with the ability to tap into some power and decent contact. Defensively, he’ll likely be a left fielder as he can hold his own there with an average arm and above average defense.
Cross can improve on his positioning this spring with a solid campaign, but right now, he just needs to show at least one standout tool. That said, the Guardians have thrived with players with his skillset and he’d be a solid pick for the mid first.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies finally saw some player dividends pay off with Bryce Harper winning NL MVP and Zack Wheeler a finalist in the NL Cy Young. In an NL East that at the present is up for grabs, they could potentually build upon that with a strong offseason.
The Phillies problem at the present and future is the outfield, beyond Bryce Harper and Matt Vierling, there appears to be a lot of question marks. There appears to be a bit of a drop off at present for outfield talent here, so the Phillies have three options: get creative, wait, or reach. One of the more intriguing prospects on the list is Chipola JC’s Cam Collier. Cam, son of 7 year MLB veteran and one-time Phillie Lou Collier, is one of the younger prospects in the class because of his decision to graduate a year early. One of the best bats of the 2023 class, Collier still grades out as one here. with consistent contact, a power stroke that will only get better as he develops, and a cannon of an arm that, while presently at third base would probably be better utilized in an outfield corner. Corner is likely his best option because he doesn’t have gamechanging speed, though he still is a capable baserunner.
Collier appears ready for the pros, but he isn’t going to come cheap. Though he did get his GED, he is still committed to play for Louisville, an excellent fallback option if he doesn’t feel he’s getting what he wants.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are probably the most frustrating team in baseball right now. On the one hand. they do have some talented young assets ready to make the jump and be part of the next homegrown core, like Jon India, Tyler Stephenson, Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. On the other hand, Bob Castellini appears ready to fire sale the team, as evidenced by not extending Trevor Bauer and Nick Castellanos, and dangling Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo in trades.
Obviously with the uncertainty of how the draft will be structured, the Reds may want to expedite their rebuild, so it may be best for them to go with the most pro-ready option. In that case, that would be Arkansas righty Peyton Pallette. After excelling in the 2021 season, although having it end before the tournament due to arm trouble, scouts saw a pitcher who had a complete toolbox, and with some fine tuning and a good idea of how much work he could manage, a solid starter. Pallette isn’t built like a starter, but as we have seen lately, that doesn’t seem to matter as much as it used to. Where there are concerns is his health, as Pallette made a very brief appearance in fall ball, and as mentioned before, was shut down in May, though he didn’t need Tommy John.
Where Pallette lands is indicative of whether he can last a full season. If he can, he could surpass Blade Tidwell as the best available (healthy) college arm. If not, he may take a tumble. Still, the Reds are not averse to Tommy John pitchers and would likely want him paired with their other two young studs if possible.
Oakland A’s
I could continue to make Kyler Murray jokes until the day he retires from the NFL or the A’s actually admit he’s not coming and draft an outfielder, but I think I’ll take a break this year. Let’s face it, the A’s are in soft teardown mode, and it’s time to see how they rebuild.
The A’s have shown that they have no qualms when it comes to drafting high upside players, and in theory, they could use this draft to find an arm to jumpstart the post Bob Melvin era. Unless they do a complete 180 on drafting high school arms, it’s highly unlikely they break their 21 year fast. But, could they potentially grab another high ceiling arm? Kumar Rocker was at one point the top pick of the 2021 draft, but faltered down the stretch with a velocity dip and a poor performance in the clinching game of the College World Series. As such, he fell to the tenth pick, the Mets selected him, and although they had an agreed upon figure, no formal offer was made and the Mets opted not to sign him, citing an undisclosed issue. Regardless of that unidentified issue, Rocker still is one of the top pitchers in the class. His pitches, sans changeup all grade out at 60 or above, his slider is devastating, and he has the build of a starter. Rocker has shown he can go deep, the question is whether he can maintain the velocity.
Assuming the Mets are wrong about Rocker’s arm being FUBAR, the A’s could find themselves a tier 1 starter at a huge discount. Rocker isn’t at Vanderbilt this spring but he should get some reps at a facility and possibly could pitch in a summer league.
Atlanta Braves
Give the Braves credit for what they accomplished this year, and the fact that their core is young and in place for the forseeable future. Chances are if they are healthy next year, a repeat wouldn’t be out of the question.
Because of how well rounded the Braves are, this pick is basically a crapshoot. If we’re going based on Alex Anthopolous’s draft tendencies, he seems to have resigned himself to sticking to college players. You don’t normally draft a pitcher to be a bullpen guy, and chances are he’ll outgrow the role this spring, but Landon Sims put himself on the map this summer during Mississippi State’s College World Series run, even though Will Bednar stole the show. Sims is a sturdy build at 6'2" at 235 pounds, and has a fastball and slider that are both lively and devastating. Sims stuck exclusively to those pitches last season, though a changeup is supposedly in the works. He has shown improvement in his control the past two seasons, and should be able to eat innings for the Bulldogs this spring.
Even if he doesn’t stick as a starter, it’s not like the Braves would be averse to utilizing him as a closer. After all, the last pure closer they drafted, Craig Kimbrel did win Rookie of the Year.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are an enigma, the fact that they haven’t sniffed the postseason in 20 years despite strong roster building is remarkable. Something has to give though, as Seattle definitely has the roster capable of breaking through, as long as things break right.
This is probably the most “Everything has to break right in order for this pick to work” pick, but considering 2021 pick Harry Ford’s flexibility combined with the lack of success among high school catching prospects, Seattle might do well to move Ford to a position more suited to his athleticism and opt for a pure catcher, like Daniel Susac. Susac, the brother of former MLB catcher Andrew Susac, came to Arizona as part of a widely heralded class, alongside freshman of the year Jacob Berry, however unlike Berry, Susac stayed. Susac saw the ball very well for the Wildcats, and as a spray hitter with pop potential, definitely would be a strong addition to any lineup. He can call a game, and though he could use some work on his defensive handling, his arm is exceptionally strong. Susac, like Ford, is an athlete having played two sports in high school, but unlike Ford, his future most definitely is behind the plate.
Susac could solidify his standing in the first round with a strong spring, even potentially surpassing Kevin Parada if possible. If he does, he’d be the second Arizona catcher drafted in three years, following Austin Wells.
St. Louis Cardinals
You have to give credit to the Cardinals for the longevity they had in the most physically demanding position in baseball. Yadier Molina undoubtedly is one of the greatest catchers of our generation and him leaving, while expected, is definitely something we are not ready for.
For the Cardinals, now is the time to look into his successor, and with the strong catching class, it is likely they find their guy here. Logan Tanner played a key role catching the Mississippi State pitching staff that captured their first College World Series title. Tanner’s calling card is his ability to call games, he’s got the captain mentality and arguably the best arm in the class. He’s not as great at the plate, certainly not better than Susac or Parada, but he’s not a liability either. Because of his instincts and his ability to hold runners, he comes off as more valuable on the field. Still, with some adjustments to his swing, he can definitely generate power, enough to put him as high as the 6 spot in the lineup.
Tanner would be a nice addition to a team that has a young stable of arms waiting in the wings, especially the likes of Matt Liberatore, Zach Thompson, Michael McGreevey and Tink Hence. He’d be a fine successor to Yadi.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays appear to be all in, especially with the additions of Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman. The question is will they finally be good enough to break the three team stronghold that is the AL East?
Toronto’s decision to sacrifice Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson will either pay dividends or hurt them hard, so they may need to make a couple drafts to rebuild that loss of talent. They could potentially draft the first prep lefty in Jackson Ferris. Ferris, an IMG Academy product and teammate of Elijah Green has big game ability, having taken on 2021 first rounder Andrew Painter and won. Ferris also has a strong pitch arsenal and solid build for his class, and has shown he can go deep. Scouts believe he definitely has room to grow, and a 10–20 pound increase will likely help him add velocity.
Ferris is committed to Mississippi, which shouldn’t be too hard to pry him from, and considering the last Blue Jays pick was Gunnar Hoglund, they’d do well to pair him with Ferris.
Boston Red Sox
You have to give Chaim Bloom credit for realizing that the Dave Dombrowski method of throwing money at expensive bandaids at the expense of the farm system was unsustainable. Though trading away Mookie Betts will forever be scrutinized, especially after Betts immediately won a title with the Dodgers, it appears the team is trending in the right direction, and all that needs to be done is supplement the farm.
For the Red Sox, they seem to have settled into a pattern of taking high ceiling high schoolers, and that doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon. Probably the most high ceiling, albeit high risk prospect for them would be Hamilton High School’s Gavin Turley. A teammate of Yankees 2021 third rounder Brock Selvidge, Turley has the chance to surpass him and has the tools to do so. To start, Turley does have insane raw power, and he couples it with solid speed and a sniper for an arm. Where he falters is his consistency. There are games where he’s really on, and then there are ones he’s really off. His swing especially needs work as he does have a tendency to go whole hog. That said, when he is on, he is on, and a team that does select him is betting on the ability to fine tune him so there are more good days than bad ones.
Turley is committed to Oregon State, but shouldn’t be too difficult to sign. If the Red Sox were to draft him, they definitely would be hoping they could get the next high school stud in an already vaunted group.
New York Yankees
There is a lot to be said about the Yankees right now, for one, is Brian Cashman ready to admit that his “Fully operational death star” needs to fixed up? What about the fact that once thought franchise stalwarts i.e. Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, etc. may not be what they were a couple years ago? The Yankees do need to look at their future, even if their future is covered in bloated contracts and crucial extension decisions.
The Yankees haven’t seen much in terms of draft dividends as of late, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t stumble backwards into someone of value. Though they havent dipped into the high school ranks for an arm since taking Ian Clarkin in 2013, they could try their luck as they are in the sweet spot of prep arms. American Heritage School has a long talented history of players, pitchers notwithstanding, but Brandon Barriera may break that streak. The Vanderbilt commit is a bit diminuitive in size, but he does compensate with pinpoint precision and a nice arsenal of above average offerings. Barriera can throw as high as 96, and his mechanics really sell his changeup and slider. He has a bulldog mentality on the mound, something that may work in his favor if he wants to stay a starter.
Pipeline says that he is comparable to another Yankees legend, Ron Guidry, which should play into his favor. If he has a solid spring, he could potentially surpass Jackson Ferris as the best prep lefty on the board.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox seem to have started to move away from their aversion to prep talent thanks to the selections of Matt Thompson, Jared Kelley, and Colson Montgomery. In a wide open AL Central, a solid draft of young talent could keep their competitive window open a lot longer.
The Sox could dip back into the Sycamore state here and grab Brebeuf Jesuit righty Andrew Dutkanych. A Vanderbilt commit, Dutkanych is considered one of the most polished arms in the class. With a four pitch arsenal highlighted by a slider that can hit 90 and a fastball that hits the high 90’s, Dutkanych has ace level projection. Mechanically he’s sound, as his delivery is repeatable. If he bulks up a few pounds he will easily build on an already strong arsenal.
The one hangup of course is his commitment to Vanderbilt, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Dutkanych sees the opportunity to make himself more valuable, given the Commodores stand to lost most, if not all of their top pitching recruits to the first round.
Milwaukee Brewers
The best way to describe the Brewers when it comes to the draft is that they have the same success rate as the New York Jets, Occasionally they’ll find someone, but either they will horrifically misjudge other picks or let their good players go in trades. Obviously the jury is still our on 2018–2021 picks Brice Turang, Ethan Small, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick, but this is probably make or break for the Brewers scouting staff.
At the 27th pick, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, but for the Brewers, they could still land an impressive Day 1 arm, like Bainbridge Island righty Ian (JR) Ritchie. Ritchie is an admittedly controversial pick, a Washington State prepster who’s competition isn’t exactly heavyweights, though you can say the exact same thing about 2021 first rounder Frank Mozzicato, except swap out Washington for Connecticut and righty for lefty. Ritchie’s fastball is capable of hitting the mid 90’s and he complements it with an effective slider. Physically, Ritchie could stand to gain some weight as he currently is 185 pounds. An extra five would do well for him.
Ritchie is a UCLA commit, and given their success in retaining most of their commits last year, he might cost a significant amount, but the Brewers shouldn’t be scared off by his price tag. If he dominates this spring he’ll likely land upwards of top 15.
Houston Astros
All trash can banging jokes and jeers at those who perpetuated the sign stealing scandal aside, I’m actually quite happy that the Astros are back in mock draft territory. As we saw this year, they clearly are capable of winning a title without resorting to cheating, and I think as soon as the last of the cheaters depart the organization the team’s reputation should improve.
The Astros first first round pick since 2019 should be a solid one, and if the team has any qualms about success rate, they should grab a sure thing. With East Carolina emerging as a talent producer again, perhaps they grab southpaw Carson Whisenhunt here? Whisenhunt isn’t a high ceiling arm, but he does get the job done with decent offerings, save for his changeup which is among the best in the class. Whisenhunt could provide more value with more innings this spring, and if he does perform as well as 2021 first rounder Gavin Williams, he could sneak his way back into round 1.
The Astros have had their fair share of successes with homegrown pitchers, and should be able to get a solid return in a high floor investment like Whisenhunt. He’d be a nice stable presence in a staff of young guns.
Tampa Bay Rays
Somehow the Rays have managed to turn a penny pinching team into a sustainable winner. Sure, it comes at the expense of long term investments, although Wander Franco’s extension seems to indicate that may change, but kudos to them for operating the way they do and becoming a perennial threat.
Unlike in recent years, there really is no definitive “Rays” pick. but from a historical perspective, they could draft a type that they have drafted before. In 2020, they drafted Nick Bitsko, a prep lefty who reclassified. This year’s top reclassifying arm is Pace righty Walter Ford. Ford, committed to Alabama, wowed on the showcase circuit thanks to a 97 MPH heater. coupled it with sound mechanics and decent control. Ford is otherwise a project, as his changeup is developmental and he is 16 as of this writing. Still the Rays have a tendency of getting the most out of their young arms, and Ford would benefit from being a test subject in the Rays pitching lab.
Ford shouldn’t cost much to forego his commitment to the Crimson Tide, and alongside Bitsko could make up a devastating 1–2 future punch that could carry the Rays in the long term.
San Francisco Giants
It’s kind of hard to say whether the Giants actually are talented enough to justify finishing with the best record in baseball, or if Gabe Kapler squeezed enough wins out of a team made up of cast offs, bad contracts and whatnot. Don’t be surprised if this team regresses next year.
With that said, the Giants have a good opportunity to infuse some young talent into this squad. As longtime stalwarts like Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt start to get older, it may be time to look to the future. Shortstop appears to be set with Mario Luciano, so maybe adding his future double play partner would be ideal. LSU’s Cade Doughty is one of the more versatile players in the class, and with the arrival of Jacob Berry, stands to solidify himself at second should Berry be able to stick at the hot corner. Another do-it-all who doesn’t excel at any particular tool, Doughty can stick the ball in the gaps and impact the basepaths. He is a capable defender, there’s no doubt, and his IQ is solid.
Doughty is the type of player who would thrive as a small ball run producer in the Giants lineup, someone who can fit in the 2 hole. If he plays well with Berry and uberprospect Dylan Crews, the three of them could find themselves hoisting the CWS trophy at Omaha.
COMPENSATORY PICKS
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies offset the cost of Brooks Lee’s projected fall here and nab the high upside and limited innings of Duke’s Henry Williams. Williams has the frame and the athleticism, and when his stuff has shown, it’s shown. However he needs more innings and his health hasn’t been stellar. Still he’s shown enough potential wise for him to make a strong case to sneak into the first round with a strong spring.
Cincinnati Reds
After grabbing Peyton Pallette, the Reds could jump back into the college talent pool and nab Jud Fabian. Fabian still comes with the swing and miss concerns that tanked his draft stock to the second round, but he does have a solid track record hitting with wood, and his power would greatly translate to the smaller confines of GABP. Plus, the last Gators star the Reds drafted turned out pretty good for them.
— —
And with that, we close out the 2021 Mocks and get ready for the 2022 mocks. See you all in late February or early March! Merry Mockmas!
