Cryptocurrencies study part 2: Growth expectations in numbers
Cryptocurrencies
As current market characteristics described above are showing, growth rates from the past are likely to be seen continually during the next years, too. Putting the results of the mentioned market penetrations study into relation, the huge upside potential becomes obvious.
- 53% of cryptocurrency investors are American
- In the US only 8% have purchased cryptocurrencies. In our calculation we are assuming this rate for whole North America.
- Population of the North America is 579 mio.
- World population is 7.6 billion
Adoption rate of cryptocurrencies in the world outside of North America could be calculated as follows:
People holding cryptocurrencies in North America:
579.000.000/100 x 8 = 46.320.000 people
People holding cryptocurrencies in the rest of the world:
46.320.000/53 x 47 = 41.076.226,40 people
Adoption rate outside North America: 100/7.021.000.000 x 41.076.226,40 = 0,585%
Growth expectations are depending on expected adoption rates:
8% adoption rate globally: 608 mio. people, potential growth rate: 595,68%
15% adoption rate globally: 1.140 mio. people, potential growth rate: 1.204,40%
30% adoption rate globally: 2.280 mio people, potential growth rate: 2.508,80%
Assumed growth expectations are calculated conservatively. In case cryptocurrencies are achieving a status where they take their place next to traditional assets such as stocks, gold as well as traditional currencies, an adoption rate of 30% can be easily seen. What is considered here is only the quantitative adoption. A potential deepness of market penetration could work as a multiplier on top of the calculated growth rates. The reason for such a development are several potential growth drivers. Some of them are named in the next chapter.
The digital Token economy
Besides cryptocurrencies themselves the digital token economy is likely to play an important roll in the (near) future. Blockchain-based assets have high potential to disrupt markets globally. Some industries and assets expected to be traded on the blockchain in the future are
(not limited to):
- Stocks and other forms of company shares
- Real estates
- Intellectual property rights
- Personal data/Digital advertising
- Cloud storage
- Insurance policies
- Charities
- Credits
- Energy
- Licenses
The world economic forum predicts that 10% of the worlds GDP will be stored on the blockchain by 2027. Taking the current worlds GDP in terms of purchasing power parity of
107.5 trillion US$
And assuming an expected annual average growth rate of 3%, 10% of the worlds GDP in 2027 leads to a
10/100 x 107.5 trillion US$ x (1,0³¹⁰) = 14.37 trillion US$.
This enormous potential market size is not to be obtained by institutional investors. The token economy is essentially characterized and driven by decentralization and its exchange between individuals by cutting out the middle-men. There is going to be a high demand for platforms and gateways to access und use Token as assets for the broad mass of individuals.
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Philipp Petzka is founder and CEO of Mintfort, a digital banking solution for crypto- and fiat currencies.
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