Reflections on COP 21, or Why I’m Cautiously Optimistic
Although the Paris Climate Change Conference ends tomorrow, I’m cautiously hopeful for a positive outcome in the form of a binding international framework for action. To be clear, this change of heart is a sharp departure from my outlook at the beginning of the conference: I hardly expected anything tangible, especially given the tremendous room for disagreement in the draft text of the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.
On November 30th, the first day of COP21, leaders from around the world spoke about the urgent need for global effort, with heads of state from Small Islands States (SIS) providing a compelling and emotional call for agreement. More tangibly, pledges from 11 states toward the Least Developed Countries Fund (LCDF) totaled $248 million, effectively closing the day with an air of hope. As the week continued, these feelings were tempered as negotiators grew concerned about Saturday’s deadline for text transitions to the COP from the ADP. Some worried that the pressing schedule for a compilation document would result in lost proposals.
Fortunately, the weekend began with an “unexpectedly harmonious mood,” spurred in part by the COP Presidency’s focus on transparency in the proceedings. Energetic negotiators nonetheless steeled themselves for the inevitably contentious issues of finance, mitigation, and differentiation. On Wednesday, December 9th, the Presidency issued a new draft text that garnered near-universal praise from nearly everyone, including the G-77 and China. A new focus on an ambitious 1.5-degree target, as opposed to the 2-degree target cited at the beginning of the conference, colored vociferous discussions between states.
Most notably, a “high ambition coalition” emerged consisting of the United States, the EU, and 79 other nations. The group pushed for a 1.5-degree target, increased investment in renewable energies, drastic carbon emissions cuts, 5-year updates, and the delivery of $100 billion per year to developing countries. Although the COP President, Laurent Fabius, remarked that some key areas of negotiation are still on the table, this influential and vocal contingency presents auspicious goals that could drive the conference toward better-than-expected outcomes.
Even so, perhaps my primary reason for cautious optimism comes from the pervading sense of community at the conference. From the urgent tone set by world leaders at the conference opening to the energetic ambition driving negotiations at the end, I can’t help but feel confident in the publication of a timely and legally-binding document. The language may not be tangible enough for a serious solution and the mechanisms for action may not be in place quite yet, but at least the world’s leaders seem united along a common front — a far cry from the results of previous climate negotiations. Indeed, if internalization of the problem is the first step toward a solution, we can anticipate a path to success in future conferences.
