The EU’s INDC: Ambition or Shortfall?
The European Union’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) advances a total greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal of at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Submitted on March 6, 2015, the agreement between the European Commission and the 28 EU member states sets a precedent relative to other developed nations. The United States, for example, promises to drop emissions by 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The EU’s INDC improves upon the previous goal — set forth in the Energy 2020 policy framework — of a 20% reduction in emissions by 2020. The INDC notes that GDP has grown by 44% since 1990 and the fact that emissions peaked in 1979 to assuage fears that the emissions target is too ambitious from either an economic or a technical standpoint.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, EU Climate Commissioner Miguel Cañete addressed the financing portions of the INDC, saying that the major countries of the EU, including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, pledged double their initial amounts to bring current climate change contributions to $62 billion (out of a $100 billion total pledged in 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen). He also re-iterated a promise to put forth $4.7 billion toward the Green Climate Fund.
Critics of the EU’s proposal, however, indicate that the targets may be less ambitious than they seem. The Climate Action Tracker rated the INDC as “medium,” with the results of the submission falling well short of the effort needed to keep global warming below 2˚ Celsius. The Tracker also found fault with the EU’s lack of transparent emissions accounting practices, with the exact composition of the “base year emissions” figure left unclear. The INDC inserts land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting into its emissions reduction objectives, which inflates the true value of its goal. To enhance clarity, some argue that the EU should only use industrial greenhouse gas emissions reductions in its 40% target. Nevertheless, the EU could make steeper domestic reductions through a variety of methods, including energy-efficiency improvements and increased renewable energy investment. The World Resources Institute calculates the potential for a 49% reduction by 2030 while maintaining a trend of economic growth.
Although the EU’s INDC could, and should, set a more stringent emissions reduction target, it still represents a considerable political force as the COP21 proceedings begin on November 30th. The EU’s current trend of emission reduction sets an important example for other developed states and its generous contributions to the Green Climate Fund will hopefully persuade wealthy nations to give similarly substantial sums. Even so, the Paris Conference will require an unprecedented display of cooperation to achieve success.
