Our Images of Voter Fraud are Biased, and They Have Consequences
The MIT Election Data and Science Lab helps highlight new research and interesting ideas in election science. David Kimball and Adriano Udani recently presented a paper at the 2018 annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association entitled, “ What Fraud Looks Like: A Conjoint Analysis to Examine Perceptions of Voter Fraud.” Here, Professors Kimball and Udani summarize their analysis from that paper.
Within the past year, two women of color in the United States have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms for voter fraud violations. In March of 2018, Crystal Mason, an African-American woman, was sentenced to five years in prison for voting while on supervised release from prison. This is a violation of Texas law, although Ms. Mason testified that she didn’t know that she was not allowed to vote. In 2017, Rosa Maria Ortega, a permanent resident, was sentenced to eight years in prison (and likely deportation after that) for violating a state law that bans non-citizen voting. Ms. Ortega also testified that she did not know it was illegal for her to vote. These seem like severe sentences, given that white offenders committing similar crimes have received milder sentences (such as probation or a fine). Why would these two women receive such harsh punishment? In a recent paper, Adriano Udani and I find that it may have something to do with who they are rather than what they did. Americans tend to carry stereotypical images of illegal voters in their heads, and these images are strongly related to public beliefs about voter fraud and support for policies to prevent and punish voter fraud.
In the fall of 2017 we conducted a national survey of American adults and asked respondents about the traits they associate with illegal voters. Some of the traits provide implicit cues about an offender’s likely racial or ethnic identity. For example, we find that Americans perceive immigrants and people with a criminal record as typical illegal voters. We also find that Americans tend to overestimate the share of illegal voters who are immigrants or people of color, while greatly underestimating the percentage of illegal voters who are white.
Where do Americans get the idea that immigrants and people of color are typical illegal voters? The news media tend to disproportionately frame immigrants and black Americans as being prone toward crime and violence. This form of reporting has been carried over to news coverage of voter fraud. Furthermore, politicians frequently make unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud that link anxiety about immigration with concerns about crime. This type of political rhetoric often reaches a receptive public.
Public images of illegal voters are very important because they have public policy consequences. Among white survey respondents, images of illegal voters are strongly linked to beliefs about the frequency with which voter fraud occurs. This matters because public concerns about voter fraud are widespread, despite growing evidence that voter fraud is extremely rare. Furthermore, public concerns about voter fraud are frequently cited to justify new voting restrictions and harsh punishment for violators.
We also find that stereotypes about voter fraud are closely associated with public support for strict punishment of voter fraud violations. The figure below is based on our survey data and shows the relationship between perceived traits of typical illegal voters and the probability that someone supports prison time for a person guilty of committing voter fraud. The more that white Americans believe that immigrants and blacks are primarily casting illegal votes, the more likely they are to support a prison sentence for voter fraud offenders. In contrast, the more they believe that whites are primarily casting illegal votes, the less likely the support prison time for voter fraud violations.
Finally, we find that public images of illegal voters are closely related to support for controversial voter identification policies, such as requiring people to show proof of citizenship when they register to vote. Heightened public concerns about voter fraud and support for certain anti-fraud policies appear to be nourished by a reservoir of hostility toward racial and ethnic minorities. If politicians and judges are taking their cues from the opinions of white Americans, then this might explain why certain people receive harsh punishment for casting illegal votes.
David Kimball is professor of Political Science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and a co-author, with Martha Kropf, of Helping America Vote (Routledge 2012).
Adriano Udani is an Assistant Professor of Political Science with a joint appointment in the Public Policy Administration Program at the University of Missouri — St. Louis. Adriano studies the political consequences of immigration enforcement in the United States.
