Exploring Mobility Trends Through Data
Exposing real trends in the transportation industry through statistics and plots
Transportation, both commercial and personal, is complex; the journey from point A to point B is contingent on a tradeoff between safety, price, fuel, and convenience. For today’s post, we’re going to explore how these industry drivers are influencing the state of transportation.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure in the U.S., and the world, is in a poor state. A few relevant metrics below:
- The world currently invests ~$2.5 trillion per year on ports, airports, rail, water, telecom, roads, and power. While this sounds substantial, we’ll need to invest an additional $3.3 trillion on infrastructure per year (through 2030) to keep pace with population growth.
- 1 in 9 bridges in the U.S. are structurally deficient, according to a report by the American Road and Transportation Builders association. On average, these bridges are 27 years (67%) older than structurally sound bridges.
- ~20% of all passenger rail lines in the U.S. are in “poor condition” according to the Department of Transportation
A trillion-dollar investment in U.S. infrastructure over 10 years has the potential to create 11 million U.S. jobs, according to a report by Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Less than half of these jobs would require a college education. The case for infrastructure investment stems beyond safety, it makes economic sense.
Vehicle Sales
2016 was a peak year for vehicle sales. Concurrently, car loan financing rates fell to a 10-year low. Based on the plots below, there is some correlation between car loan financing rates and vehicle sales.
As financing rates climb back up, there’s reason to expect a fall in vehicle sales. At the same time, higher interest rates may encourage Americans to purchase more affordable vehicles with better financing terms. This is especially important given that an increasing number of Americans are taking out longer-term (60 month) loans.
Energy
Energy consumption in the Transportation sector is set to decline, despite growth in other sectors, according to a report by U.S. Energy Information Administration. The study also suggests that the adoption of electricity in vehicles will be very modest over the next 30 years. While the projections are disheartening, the environmental need for electric vehicles is more complicated than it seems. It really depends on where that electricity comes from. In fact, electricity production is responsible for 28% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. This is because approximately 68% of our electricity comes from burning fossil fuels (e.g., coal, natural gas). While the future of driving is certainly electric, it’ll take more than a change in car purchasing behavior to save the environment.
Transit Ridership
Based on data published by the DOT, the average New Yorker takes as many as 12 unlinked passenger trips on the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) per month. No other heavy rail provider is quite as successful. The next closest transit system, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), accommodates approximately 5 unlinked passenger trips per capita per month.
An Unlinked Transit Passenger Trip is a trip on one transit vehicle regardless of the type of fare paid or transfer presented.
While these are just fragments of the whole picture, our hope is that it presents a more honest narrative of the transportation world.
News
CMU Seminar: Self Driving Cars and AI
Excellent talk from Dr. Jeff Schneider (CMU; Uber Advanced Technologies Group) on how deep learning is used in two different autonomy systems. A very high-level summary: the job of any autonomous vehicle software is to use data from LiDAR, GPS, Radar, IMU, cameras, and encoders to generate four output variables for any given situation: brakes, acceleration, steering, and signals. The logic itself is governed by safety, destination/route, and the environment.
A new study by the University of Kentucky concludes that bike-sharing is associated with a decrease in bus ridership but an increase in train use. They also found that for each year after Transportation Network Companies (e.g., Uber, Gig) enter a market, train and bus ridership will decline by 1–2%.
One-pedal Driving in Electric Cars
Regenerative braking is hardly a new concept: it’s been around since the late 1800s. Despite this, it didn’t see popularity until about 20 years ago when the first Toyota Prius rolled off the line. An exciting statistic: Nissan anticipates that their ePedal (the most aggressive regenerative-braking system on the market) can meet 90% of a driver’s deceleration needs.
Subprime Auto Loans Are Turning Car Ownership Into a Trap
An alarming look at the growth in car payment defaults on U.S. auto loans, which tend to be more stable than mortgages, and even credit cards. This may signal greater financial insecurity than other economic indicators (e.g., unemployment rates) may suggest. Though this is an opportunity for software to improve the auto loan process, there’s an ongoing risk of predatory behavior.
Data Sources:
Transit Data: https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/data-product/monthly-module-raw-data-release
Vehicle Sales: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0
48mo Auto Loan Sales: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBAUTO48NS
Energy Consumption Projections: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf
