The Trump Bump for Democrats: Measuring Turnout
By Mike Greenfield & Alfred Johnson
Change Research & MobilizeAmerica
Some say Conor Lamb won in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional district by moving right.
Donald Trump says he is “like Trump” and “he sounds like a Republican to me.” The implication: Lamb was more like Trump, so Trump voters voted for him.
The data say otherwise.
On March 13, Conor Lamb was less successful at winning Trump voters than most other Democratic special election candidates. Lamb won just 5% of the vote among 2016 Trump voters, according to Change Research’s polling of 1000+ in-district voters in the days after the election. Change Research previously found that 10% or more of Trump voters voted for Democrats or third party candidates in recent special elections in Kansas, Montana, and Alabama.
So what explains Lamb’s success? The most important factor was the enthusiasm and turnout on the left. As founders of Change Research (a polling startup working in many Congressional races) and MobilizeAmerica (the volunteer platform for the Lamb campaign), we have unique perspective on what happened. Lamb won over some Trump voters, but he’s a Congressman because Democrats organized, mobilized and showed up.
According to Change Research’s polling, 67% of Clinton voters voted in the election — far more than the 54% of Trump voters who showed up. Of Trump voters who didn’t vote, 57% woke up on March 13 planning to vote, but “didn’t have time.” When voters are enthusiastic, they find time.
In the weeks preceding the election, MobilizeAmerica saw volunteers schedule 4,041 shifts for Lamb through our platform. On the Friday before the election, volunteers scheduled 1,298 shifts for Lamb — more than 1 shift per minute during the day. These volunteers were recruited by Lamb’s campaign and nearly 100 grassroots and national groups. The members of leading progressive group SwingLeft contributed thousands of shifts. These numbers are the sort you see in Presidential campaigns, not off-cycle, special elections in districts that haven’t seen a competitive race in decades.
Those volunteers had a big impact.
Change Research found that 31% of Lamb voters — roughly 35,000 people — reported they had been reached at their door by the Democrat’s campaign. Only 19% of Saccone voters reported a door knock from the GOP campaign. That implies Lamb volunteers spoke to 13,000 more people at their doors than Saccone’s canvassers. This made a big difference in a race decided by only 700 votes.
Lamb’s success mobilizing the grassroots is not the exception: it’s the rule of the Trump era. Last fall in Virginia, volunteers — more than 70% of them women — contributed thousands of hours to help Democrats win more seats in the chamber than any election since 1899. That support enabled candidates like Danica Roem to achieve historic victories. Roem gained national attention with her win over a 25-year anti-LGBT incumbent to become the first openly transgender person to win a state legislature seat.
Roem and Lamb have different backgrounds and don’t align on every issue — but their successes have a common thread. Roem and Lamb are both 33 years-old and were inspired to run for office after the 2016 election. They won by maintaining a laserlike focus on local issues and inspiring volunteers to help.
Roem and Lamb have another thing in common: “conventional wisdom” gave them no chance. In Roem’s case, her gender identity would be too much for exurban voters in Manassas. Lamb “would never win” in a coal country district that voted for Trump by 20%. Conventional wisdom was wrong.
The Resistance has millions of faces and Conor Lamb and Danica Roem are just two. With a strategic, organized effort of groups and individuals across the country, Democrats can win anywhere.
Alfred Johnson is Co-Founder and CEO of MobilizeAmerica. Mike Greenfield is Co-Founder and CEO of Change Research.
