Introduction of Hype Cycle and the story of our position in the bubble circle
Blockchain is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it…
What is Hype Circle?
Hype Cycle is a concept proposed by Gartner, a famous American market research firm.
Hype Cycle provides an overview of the movement of emerging trends related to many fields, from their appearance to when these trends/technologies are applied to life.
Through Hype Cycle, we can grasp the need and potential of technologies, thereby making smarter decisions for our businesses.
Should we join early? Are the current options appropriate? Should we wait for more tests?
It can be said that for developers, technology managers, strategic planners, researchers… This is a report that we can’t ignore
(Many people call it the “expectation cycle”, but I don’t like this translation very much, and find it not very meaningful, so I will temporarily translate it as bubble cycle.)
How Hype Cycle works?
In Hype Cycle, we have 5 phases:
Phase 1 — Innovation Trigger: A potential new technology is born, theories and proof-of-concept products appear. However, there is usually no product that can be used and its commerciality is yet to be proven.
Phase 2- Peak of Inflated Expectations: The first few successful product stories emerged, followed by countless other failures. Some companies act, most do not.
Phase 3 — Trough of Disillusionment: Initial tests and implementations were mostly unsuccessful. Technology manufacturers are in a crisis of failure. Investments are only added when suppliers upgrade their products enough to be able to bring them to market soon.
Phase 4 — Slope of Enlightenment: More and more evidence of technology’s potential for success and widespread adoption. The second, third, .. product generation of technology appeared. More investors have boldly participated, but conservative companies remain cautious.
Phase 5 — Plateau of Productivity: Becoming a mainstream technology. Evaluation criteria and guidelines have been completed. The applicability in the market is expanded, bringing a clear profit.
What Hype Circle can help us
- Recognize the exaggeration of the commercial promises of new technologies.
- Reduce the risk of technology investment decisions.
- Compare our own assessment of the technology’s commercial value with an objective assessment from IT analysts.
Where are we in such a bubble circle?
It is clear that most of the related technologies in blockchain are at the technological dawn and are being over-hyped for their capabilities.
And the earliest hype, we probably all know, is “Bitcoin”, it’s “Cryptocurrencies”, it’s distributed ledger technology, it’s “Defi”, and recently it’s “NFT”.
There was a time in 2017 when everyone was flocking to Bitcoin and crypto, miners, miners.
Through 2018, that market began to decline from its peak, gradually moving towards its actual value, Bitcoin plunging, miners selling off, ICOs crashing, crypto market volatility and the like. The scam has made not too many people interested in virtual money in particular and blockchain in general.
2019 seems like the market has “hibernated”, but blockchain teams are still working hard to develop to bring applications back.
By 2020, with the strong revival of Defi, it can be said that this is one of the first applications of blockchain to rise over the slope of enlightenment, and gradually approach the productivity plateau when the value of defi has been continuously increasing since its appearance.
By 2021, NFT will become popular. In my opinion, NFT is on the other side of the peak of expectations (except for the game that can be considered to have climbed the slope of enlightenment), it will take more time. Moreover, the new NFT & business & regulator technology can be synchronized to create truly valuable products.
In essence, the potential of blockchain technology is still great, it’s just that we need more time and effort to research and develop it, and make it mainstream. Today’s peak can be tomorrow’s bottom, and vice versa, that’s completely understandable.
According to you, what trend will 2022 be?
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