A World Made of Glass
How the pandemic exposed just how frail everything is and what we can do about it.
What happens once all the cracks start to show?
That’s what came to mind after finishing Nassim Taleb’s thought-provoking Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder. A dense but fascinating read that helps the reader to question if society might just be too susceptible to failure.
The timing of this read could not have been more perfect. Our world is currently in a state of upheaval.
The spread of coronavirus is a crisis unlike any see in the modern age.
The reverberating impact has decimated economies, as businesses have been forced to shutter.
We face impending social challenges caused by social isolation, loss of employment and health concerns on a massive scale.
And, centrally, uprisings against systemic racism, police brutality and inequality across the United States that have spread globally.
To say the year 2020 thus far has been exhausting would be an understatement.
These challenges have also brought to light just how fragile our very existence is. We can see, hear and feel the consequences of what’s happening around us. Now what do we do? How can we become less fragile and more antifragile?
Let’s explore what flaws were exposed and the differing responses before outlining how to be more antifragile going forward. But first, a definition to guide the conversation.
The Opposite of Fragile
Fragility is commonly known and should hopefully conjure up images of things like eggs or antique porcelain dinnerware.
Antifragile holds a place opposite, with properties that may at first seem to be counterintuitive. As defined by Taleb:
“ . . beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same, the antifragile gets better.” — Nassim Taleb
In the face of disaster, the antifragile flourishes. It becomes stronger, better equipped, more able to overcome.
It is this attribute that serves systems (whether it be human, natural, man-made, etc) well when challenged. The competency works even better if it can be reinforced prior to be needed.
Fragility Exposed
“You only find out who was swimming naked when the tide goes out.” — Warren Buffett
The pandemic has revealed what was previously out of sight. We’ve been made painfully aware of shortcomings and issues masked by a period of sustained economic growth. Not a sector has remained untouched as we continue to navigate the immediate consequences and necessary changes to the way we live.
Broadly, here are some critical weaknesses that have been exposed.
Business
From a top-down perspective, globalization has greatly aided the spread of the Covid-19 virus and its subsequent economic fallout. The reliance of global supply chains on China, especially for products of national importance, have been called into question.
Companies have also been caught lacking sufficient capital and planning, with small businesses hit the hardest. A decade long-run of prioritizing value extraction over value creation has come full-circle.
Most striking, is the fact that our economies’ most vulnerable workers also happen to be the most essential. This fact has done little to stem the erosion of bargaining power for low wage, part-time and contract labour. Yet, many are left out when it comes to government support and employment rights even as frontline workers.
Social
Coordinated responses, decisive actions and well-funded institutions have become a necessity for countries. Where governments have taken less measured approaches, the results have been devastating.
“An insufficiently fast and coordinated response, an initial lack of testing capacity, and a decision to suspend track and trace in early March” has been blamed for the UK’s high number of fatalities per capita.
Elsewhere, economic and racial inequality has led to pronounced disparities in coronavirus infections and outcomes.
Studies from Canadian cities such as Montreal and Toronto have revealed strong linkages between higher rates of infection and low-income neighbourhoods, working conditions and being a visible minority.
Lastly, our urban environments have been designed to facilitate large gatherings and face-to-face interactions. What happens when where we live compromises health and safety?
Health
How we care for and house our elderly may be one of the biggest issues to come out of this. For many countries, the current system is broken.
The numbers are equal amounts shocking and tragic. Through June 3, elderly citizens within US long term care centers had succumbed to the virus at a rate of 18 deaths per hour. More than 40% of coronavirus deaths can be linked to nursing homes in the country.
It’s been a common refrain to hear of hospitals being under-resourced during the pandemic. While foreseeing a challenge of this magnitude would have been unlikely, the desperate efforts needed to shore up supplies is telling.
Finally, the fallout from months of isolation, virus fears and a stumbling economy could be just as bad. Termed an “echo pandemic”, experts are warning of increased mental health issues as a lasting concern following the pandemic.
With these issues now exposed to the light, it’s difficult to unsee. Returning to what was previously “normal” would surely leave us vulnerable to a similar event in the future.
When The Storm Comes
“Failure isn’t fatal, but failure to change might be” — John Wooden
As the pressure and damage mounts, what happens then?
Prediction will always be limited without a crystal ball (and quite frankly, is foolish in many instances). The best course of action lies in an effective response.
The volatility created by the global pandemic has forced individuals, businesses and governments to take immediate action. As it unfolds it presents a fascinating, real-time case study on response effectiveness and consequences (observed in the short-term, forecasted in the long-term).
For this section, let’s look at how some short and long-term responses can be characterized and how the antifragile differ from the fragile.
Short-Term Responses
From the onset coronavirus represented a health concern on a global scale. Complicating matters was the fact that relatively little was known about the virus and how it was transmitted.
Initial attempts at herd immunity can rightly be blamed for higher mortality rates in countries such as Sweden and England. Similarly, we witnessed instances where public spaces were left open, with minimal workplace closures and only suggestions on safety measures to take. Reactive actions point to an administrative failure in understanding the potential impact of exponential virus transmission. Taken togther, these tactics can be described as Not Enough.
The opposite is doing too much before the entire situation is known. In most cases, this is the safest bet. Countries where cases first started to surge weeks or even months after the initial outbreak in Asia were able to be proactive. Some areas enforced strict quarantines at central locations (Vietnam is a great example). Gatherings became a prohibited activity, contact tracing the norm and even curtailing of medical procedures to only the most urgent and necessary. While not uniform in impact, these strategies can be collectively known as Overcorrecting.
Long-Term Responses
With the spread of the virus still ongoing, long-term plans are still being made off limited data and interpretations. We’ve seen the most vigorous interventions occur in the first couple of months. Governments have already committed over $9 Trillion to support individuals, businesses and ensure appropriate liquidity in markets. Many advanced economies have bypassed employers altogether by providing income supports directly to individuals.
Finding a successful vaccine is among the highest priorities within the scientific community. Even with accelerated development and testing, mass-produced vaccines aren’t expected until 2021. The availability of a treatment, while necessary, also reinforces a rear-looking perspective that can leave populations vulnerable to future pandemics. Our natural bias is to make future preparations based off the most recent disaster. As pointed out by Farnam Street, “the same disasters tend not to happen twice in a row”. We’re better off in preparing for the unexpected versus specific circumstances.
A final note, is the continued need to emphasis simple, effective measures to combat the virus. Humans tend to over complicate things when given access to powerful tools and knowledge. While there’s no debating the role of medicine and science in delivering a cure, these more complex routes take time and are prone to errors. Much simpler alternatives (making face masks mandatory, enforcing social distancing, regular hand washing, etc) can minimize spread without high costs.
The New Divide
In an instant, it's become quite clear how vulnerable and fragile everyday life is.
The mounting job losses, strained healthcare systems, closure of schools and forced isolation paint a grim picture. Covid has exposed these cracks in the system and drawn a distinct line between “the haves and have-nots”.
While commonly accepted refrain, it’s more relevant to think of this split in a new way:
The Antifragile and the Fragile.
In our fast, unpredictable and ever-changing world it’s more valuable to be able to withstand and thrive from change. It’s helpful to have wealth and knowledge, but only insofar as it helps with the next challenge.
Because there will always be more challenges.
The precarious have responded to the pandemic with knee-jerk reactions, making errors more likely. We’ve witnessed the panic-buying of household items, the spread of false theories and constant news cycles that all stoke the flames of fear.
By seeking those narratives that are both sensational and convenient, we leave almost no room to construct our own and soundly assess the situation.
Comparatively, the Antifragile are able to retain some semblance of calm in the face disaster. By making decisions based on what is known to be true and verified, moments of chaos become moments of opportunity.
With self-awareness and the ability to update thinking, the Antifragile are able to thrive in difficult times.
How To Be Antifragile
The fragility of our world and its imperfect responses have been brought into the light. It’s clear that unforeseen stress leads to poor decisions on the account of individuals, businesses, government and other large actors.
The question then becomes: How do we do better?
How can we turn a negative, boundless event into one where adverse effects are minimized and, with time, our status is actually better than it was before?
This is the essence of being antifragile and welcoming the volatility and chaos that comes with adversity.
Our physical bodies are born with some measure of antifragility (and we increase it through a process called hormesis) we only need to add the right mindset to accompany it. Here’s some ways how.
Increase Options
More options means more possible paths to take. And when things go sideways, there’s a greater chance one of the options could be the way out.
Look to add options that offer large flexibility. Money is a great example, offering a limitless number of things that can be bought. Skills such as learning a foreign language (entire countries become new options), being able to quickly build relationships or how to sell can also open many doors.
Add Stress to Your Life
Intentionally adding small amounts of stress activates our natural antifragility response and can make us stronger.
Weightlifting is the most obvious example. When you first start, the weights feel heavy and your muscles tire quickly. But with repeated training that same weight feels lighter and your muscles have more endurance after just a few short weeks.
We can apply this same framework to other areas of our life. Adding beneficial stress to our physical bodies (cold showers, fasting), attention (leaving the smartphone in the other room for an 1 or 2 hours) and decision-making (having tight and firm deadlines).
Have Redundancies
While it’s difficult to have a backup for everything in life, a few smart investments can backstop the most essential parts.
Start by building an emergency fund. Keep critical documents and photos stored in the cloud. Put together a survival kit.
Redundancies help to ensure that an unlucky break never turns into a “worst case scenario”. Having a backup can also enable us to be more proactive and take action. If we know that we have something to fall back on, we’re more likely to take a risk.
In Closing
From all this tragedy, there comes an opportunity to make a meaningful change. One that better prepares us for the next challenge.
2020 will be known as the year that Coronavirus impacted every part of the world. And with it, much of our precarious existence was exposed for all to see.
Once seen, it’s difficult to forget the image. In other words, we can’t go back.
Our social, economic and political structures are fragile and will be forever prone to collapse. They weren’t designed to withstand and thrive during periods of intense uncertainty.
Becoming more antifragile, while not perfect, gives us another option. To become more capable, more self-reliant, more adaptive to change.
A chance to turn adversity into growth.
How can you be more prepared for rapid changes?
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