Oct 11, 2020
Betting Market ‘EERILY’ Similar To 2016 Markets
A release from Predictit.org compares election trade average data from 2016 to 2020 and it looks eerily similar.
Predictit is a political/event predicting betting platform that have bets open for many different “events” in the US and worldwide. Below are a collection of predictive current bets.
On the 9th of October, Predictit released some data regarding the 2020 election comparing it to the betting data from 2016 to 2020. The “Current 2020 forecast” they provided shows: Former VP Joe Biden(D) = 67% and President Donald J Trump(R-inc) = 37%. This data is based from Predictit’s own prediction market forecast data, see Predictit.org for more info.
The graph sourced by Predictit.org compares both 2016 (Hillary vs Trump) and 2020 (Biden vs Trump) “Average Trade Prices”. The 2016 data is eerily is similar to the 2020 data for each political parties candidate.
If this data is within the margin of error, this could show a possible Donald J Trump (R) win if the data patterns follows the current data trajectory. However, Predictit have Joe Biden at a 67% of winning and Trump at 37% at the current point.
Journalist, Commentator and YouTuber Tim Pool released a video discussing the data and comparing multiple different points. He is a former “neo-liberal” and identifies as a “social liberal” (centre-left). He is a past Obama voter in 2008 but didn’t vote in 2012 as he felt “betrayed”.
He has been open for the last couple of months about voting for Trump mainly due to Trump’s Middle-Eastern Peace Deals and the withdrawing of 1000’s of US troops from around the world.
