Which Polls are Right? Who Will Win the 2020 Election?
Looking at the polls and other major models that predict and decide elections, and coming to a verdict based of the latter.
There are constantly polls claiming to be accurate being released to “correctly” predict the elections. These polls are seen as religious scriptures to many, and in no way can be questioned. However, the majority of polls have a sad and pathetic history of being superbly inaccurate and often lean to the left.
Are Polls Accurate? — 2016 Election
In the 2016 election, Trump’s first opening to politics, stunk of a harsh anti-Trump rhetoric world wide. The anti-Trump rhetoric was based in two viewpoints. One view was that he was a “crony-billionaire-racist”, that has no history in experience in politics and knows nothing about politics. The other view, by many on the left and some on the right, was that Trump was a risk to the current system and would cause political disruption and cause chaos. Either way the hate and love for Trump was cult-like and resulted is media companies, journalists and public figures having to choose a side. This meant that the majority of polling companies and operation had to lean to one side.
The majority of polling companies, polling operations and media company polling operations went the anti-Trump route. Many Americans like to look into polls and what kind of people were being polled in each poll. It became apparent that polls generally polled by majority the Democrat demographic and left the Republican demographic. This on top of many other faults resulted in 90% or more of the top polls were inaccurate by the margin of error. Ballotpedia have an entire list of all the 2016 polls including the margin of error. The high majority had Hillary in line to win, some even stating Hillary would win by over 90%.
Are Polls Accurate? — 2020 Election
When it comes to the 2020 election, many polling companies claimed they had reformed their methods and changed to poll each demographic equally. However, this was untrue in many cases polls oversampled “College Graduate, White Liberals” which is the main demographic in support of the democrat party.
As well as this the 2016 and 2020 polls both of “push” questions. “Push” questions are one-sides, bias inquiries intended to push people in support of the pollsters belief. One of the most egregious and obvious examples of “push polling” is in the 2000 Republican Primaries were it surfaced George W. Bush’s campaign used push polling against the campaign of Senator John McCain. Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?” This hypothetical question seemed like a suggestion, although without substance. It was heard by thousands of primary voters.
Another example of this, was from the GOP poll on GOP voters after Trump’s exec order restricting the travel to and from the US and Middle-East. In the poll it asked “Do you believe that the media unfairly reported on President Trump’s executive order temporarily restricting people entering our country from nations compromised by radical Islamic terrorism?” Now although this statement is somewhat factual, it is presented in a biased way making the voter feel they are in someone supporting Radical Islam if they say they didn’t support his exec order.
This is not just a Republican thing, in fact its quite the opposite. Some of the most popular polls came from left leaning companies or news outlets and many of the questions presented the Democrats in favourable light.
The accuracy of polls is often disputed but one polling company who got the 2016 election near bang on was Rasmussen. They currently have Trump in the lead in some polls, but Joe in others.
But there is a different way of predicting presidential elections and its called the Primary Model.
The Primary Model
The Primary Model is a formulaic system of determining the outcome of a presidential election based on multiple factors including the outcome of Primary elections. Since its creation, in 1912 it has been tested on nearly 200 presidential elections and in only 2 occasions was it inaccurate. Currently the primary model has Trump at a 91% chance of winning and estimates he will receive 362 electoral votes to Joe Biden’s 9% chance of winning with only 176 Electoral Votes.
The Primary Model correctly predicted a Trump 2016 win, despite many polls saying otherwise, and have got a 96% accuracy rate within the standards.
Which Poll Should You Use?
It’s safe to say, many polls are skewed, biased or should be voided however the two most accurate polls/predictions came from Rasmussen and The Primary Model, so if you’re looking for a solid prediction for bets, Rasmussen and the PM is the best bet. However, this does not mean you shouldn’t follow other polls. There are also some other accurate polls, listed in THIS article.
However, many of the skewed polls can still give a false sense of security to the party it favours, so its a good job to keep an eye an all the polls to understand the current state of candidate favourable for the main stream.
Who is Going to Win?
The current state of events, and the endorsement by Democrat candidate Joe Biden of the defunding of the police amid nation wide riots and insurrection, made many come to the conclusion Trump will win indefinitely. To the contrary, many polls and data says Trump is not favourable by the majority and the Trump v Biden race may be very tight.
Many in the US, believe in a “Silent Majority” which is backed up by a recent poll from the CATO institute which states that 62% believe that the current political climate prevents people from saying things they believe as other may find it offensive. Below is what the study stated:
50% of strong liberals support firing Trump donors, 36% of strong conservatives support firing Biden donors; 32% are worried about missing out on job opportunities because of their political opinions
A new Cato Institute/YouGov national survey of 2,000 Americans finds that 62% of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. This is up from 2017 when 58% agreed with this statement. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.
Strong liberals stand out, however, as the only political group who feel they can express themselves: 58% of staunch liberals feel they can say what they believe.
Centrist liberals feel differently, with 52% who feel they have to self‐censor, as do 64% of moderates, and 77% of conservatives. This demonstrates that political expression is an issue that divides the Democratic coalition between centrist Democrats and their left flank.
The most shocking part, and what supports the prospect of a “Silent Majority” is the fact that only “Strong Liberals” (Far-Left) feel they can express themselves (58%). Which correlates to the recent, Far-Left ran riots and the Far-Left propositions of “Defunding the Police” and “Slave Reparations”.
On top of all this I have come to the conclusion of TRUMP 2020 WIN. But I am going to keep my options open and check closely with the polling data and other models, as well as the news.
