Terrorism in The Horn of Africa: #10YearChallenge
According to the Global Terrorism Database
Somalia is well known for the 2001 movie “Black Hawk Down” by Ridley Scott, by piracy, and the terrorist organization known as al-Shabaab, yet very few is heard of the country in Western news outside these topics. It is also believed that Somalia is a failed State, which can be said is true considering the Westphalian perspective of a “State”, but debatable under Somalian tradition.
The U.N. has a peacekeeping mission stationed in the country since 2007 called AMISOM, conformed by African States, and whose main objectives are
- “Enable the gradual handing over of security responsibilities from AMISOM to the Somali security forces contingent on abilities of the Somali security forces and political and security progress in Somalia;”
- “Reduce the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and other armed opposition groups;”
- “Assist the Somali security forces to provide security for the political process at all levels as well as stabilization, reconciliation and peace building in Somalia;”
Put in other words, the mission in Somalia is to re-establish the rule of law, state-building, and, if not eradicate, at least reduce the threat posed by al-Shabaab. Additionally, among its main tasks is to actively conduct offensive operation against said terrorist group, train Somali forces, and assist Somali authorities.
Furthermore, Transparency International ranks Somalia as the lowest country in the Corruption Perception Index 2017, and several attempts to reconstruct the country have been made since Siyad Barre was ousted from power.
I also want to add that I will leave out clan dynamics for simplicity sake. In my opinion, this is a completely different and complex topic, and deserves an article on its own. Needless to say, clan dynamics and traditional institutions have always played an important role in Somalia, and it is one of the factors that helped Somalia and Somaliland live through difficult times, even defying the Westphalian concept of “State”.
Before continuing, I think it is important to have a general overview of the country, some history and its main problems. If you already know something about Somalia, please feel free to skip it. In addition, as my main purpose is to analyze the results from the Global Terrorism Database, I will keep the rest as brief as possible.
General Overview — Useful links
Somalia’s timeline
UNHCR Refugee Report 2017 [PDF]
Somalia East Africa Children Crisis Situation Report 2018 [PDF]
Geopolitical importance
Somalia is located in the eastern most part of Africa, which is also known as the “Horn of Africa”, between the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden. The country is situated along an importan trade route for ships that want to cross into the Red Sea and enter the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal in Egypt further north.
As seen in the map below, the Horn of Africa is near one of the primary choke points (Bab el-Mandeb) of maritime trade, meaning that the commerce in that area has no other option than going through the strait.
Just to demonstrate even better how important this strait is, the next map shows all ships transiting the area.
“An estimated 4.8 million b/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2016 […]” — EIA 2017
And just the Suez Canal as comparison:
“In 2016, 3.9 million b/d of crude oil and refined products transited the Suez Canal in both directions, according to data published by the Suez Canal Authority” — EIA 2017
It is also a dangerous strait to cross as pirates loom in the area. Somalia is popularly known for piracy that ships experience nearby. In 2017 only 180 attacks were reported to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), and surprisingly only 9 incidents were recorded off Somalia. Nevertheless, the map below from UNITAR shows the Gulf of Aden to be a hot-spot for piracy.
Despite its dangers, commerce still flows through this strait. If you want to know more about the strait and its importance, I can recommend you this video by Stratfor.
Terrorism
Al-Shabaab
Somalia’s best known terrorist organization is al-Shabaab, which means “the Youth”. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), this group emerged in 2004 during the Islamic Courts Union, yet having its roots in a militant Salafi group in the 1990s called “Unity of Islam”.
Al-Shabaab took control of the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in 2006, yet were ousted in the same year by Ethiopia. This radicalized the group even more, and has since then remained a major threat for Somalia.
“Al-Shabab remains capable of carrying out massive attacks in Somalia and surrounding countries despite a long-running African Union offensive against the Islamist group.” — CFR, 2019
In 2012 the group affiliated itself to al-Qaeda, in 2014 its leader Ahmed Abdi Godane was killed, and since then AMISOM has obtained major territorial gains from the group. In 2017, the deadliest terrorist attack was perpetrated by al-Shabaab, and on the same year AMISOM troops began its withdrawal as part of the transition of security responsibilities to local authorities.
“In October 2017, the capital city suffered its worst terrorist attack to date when twin truck bombings killed more than five hundred people and injured more than three hundred.” — CFR, 2019
“Al-Shabaab claimed that it carried out the massacre at the Dusit in revenge for President Donald Trump’s decision to move the United States embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.” — CNN, 2019
The group’s main objective is to establish an Islamic State in Somalia and oppose any Western backed government, although they are divided regarding other topics.
The organization is mainly located in southern Somalia, being Jilib their proclaimed de facto capital. Furthermore, it is estimated that its size lies between 3,000–6,000 individuals.
Daesh in Somalia?
According to a CTC report, The Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) emerged in 2015 (p. 30) in the Puntland region (northern Somalia). Originally as an al-Shabaab offshoot, the northerners decided to pledge allegiance to Daesh (ISIL), severing its ties with the former (p. 30).
The rivalry went as far as declaring war on each other:
“A so-called Islamic State has emerged in our land and stated to attempt to divide our Mujahidin [jihadist fighters], weaken our strength and carry out assassinations against our own. We have been ignoring their wicked behaviors for some time to give them a chance to change, but they have continued their wrongheadedness.” — Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, al-Shabaab spokesman
It is probable that the group will not obtain full dominance over the country while al-Shabaab remains strong, yet if the latter is weakened there is a possibility that Daesh may resurface strongly as an alternative to create an Islamic State
Global Terrorism Database — 10 Year Challenge
Somalia ended the year 2007 with an already high number of terrorist attacks compared to its neighbors Ethiopia, Kenya, and (regional neighbor) Uganda. The years after looked positively for the country, yet attacks started to rise considerably during 2010, peaking in 2014, falling during 2015, yet rising again from 2016 onwards.
Moreover, heavy fighting initiated in 2010 in Mogadishu and later extended into areas outside the city. The harsh spike of attacks during 2013 could be attributed to the capture of the group’s leader Hassan Dahir Aweys in June 2013 and its leadership reconfiguration followed by a wave of violence.
“The group has also just emerged from a leadership struggle. Al-Shabab’s shadowy leader Ahmed Abdi Godane managed to re-align the group’s leadership and consolidate his power by killing some of his main opponents.” — Al Jazeera, 2013
A great number of attacks continued to happen in the following years. None the less, the number of attacks dropped drastically during 2015, and continued the trend that was left at the end of 2013. Parliamentary elections took place in 2016, maybe explaining the rise of attacks.
The location of attacks expanded from mainly taking place in Somalia’s capital during 2007, to other cities and provinces in southern Somalia and in some parts in the north, near the border with Somaliland, by 2017. In ten years the number of terrorist attacks spread out dramatically, with an alarming intensification in Mogadishu. The attacks in the north in 2017 can be attributed to al-Shabaab and Jabha East Africa (Daesh).
Most of the attacks in a ten year span were perpetrated by al-Shabaab, with other minor groups also committing terrorism at a lesser scale. There is also a large percentage of unclaimed attacks that can be attributed to other groups or even to al-Shabaab.
The most recurrent types of attack were Bombings & Explosions, followed by Armed and Unarmed assaults.
Finally, the most attacked targets were military, government institutions, and private property alongside citizens.
Conclusion
To be brief, Somalia is experiencing an alarming wave of violence that might continue in coming years. The trend of attacks seem to increment slightly in 2017, and it would be interesting to watch the results for 2018. If the country does not achieve an almost full stabilization of the country, militias will use the opportunity to fulfill their objectives, also using terrorism as a mean.
In the Global Peace Index (GPI), Somalia ranks 159 out of 163 countries (p. 9), being the latter the least peaceful country. In this index, Somalia ranks better only than Iraq, South Sudan, Afghanistan and lastly Syria in that order.
“Neighbouring Kenya, in contrast, gained three places as a result of a reduced number of attacks by militants allied to Somalia’s al-Shabaab movement” — GPI, p. 18
Regarding the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Somalia recorded a considerable increase in terms of number of deaths in 2017, all done by al-Shabaab (p. 2). In the impact measure of terrorism (p. 8), the country ranks 6th (as reference the USA ranks 20th).
“Egypt and Somalia had the largest increases in deaths from terrorism, with deaths increasing by 123 per cent and 93 per cent respectively.” — GTI, p. 4
In addition, the deadliest attack of all 2017 was perpetrated in Somalia, when a suicide bomber detonated and explosive laden truck outside and hotel in Mogadishu, killing 588 people (p. 10); the 14th most deadliest attack also happened in said country, killing 77 people (p. 11).
“In 2017, Al-Shabaab overtook Boko Haram as the deadliest terror group in sub-Saharan Africa for the first time since 2010.” — GTI, p. 16
Nonetheless, the attacks will continue if the country does not strengthen its institutions and government, and brings a certain degree of stabilization and control over the country on a political and security level. The attempts of AMISOM and other foreign actors to bring stability could help the country, although a several number of abuse cases by the previous actors have been reported in accordance with Human Rights Watch.
Last but not least, perhaps the best way of Somali governance is a more traditional approach based on a clan system, instead of trying to achieve a Western system-like governance. Perchance the way Somalia should be governed must not be based on the concept of a Westphalian State, but rather with traditional institutions that have existed and will continue to exist for a long time.
