Syria: An Economic Investment for Putin
How the intervention in Syria is bound to become a cash cow for Russia
The current war in Syria is casting a shadow onto the whole world. Europe is dealing with hundreds of thousands of refugees and the Middle East is combating one of the most well run and funded terrorist organizations. Now, add to the mix a revisionist power that is slowly but surely testing, asserting and informing the world that it does in fact have 21st century military capabilities. From an Arab Spring and a civil war to a bloody conflict displacing millions, behind the fog of war lies a glimpse of wealth and power. And that is precisely what tovarisch Putin is chasing.
A simple analysis would reveal that Russia’s intervention in Syria is motivated by the following reasons:
- Detract the attention of the world away from Eastern Ukraine & Crimea
- Test its military capabilities and ability to project power outside of its neighborhood (Ukraine & Georgia)
- Preserve the spoon-fed narrative of a great Russia and Putin to the Russian public
However, the motives when analysed from an economic point of view start to reveal a number of other key reasons that fly under the radar.
Regional Military Presence = Economic Rewards
Putin is a mastermind opportunist, and Russia’s involvement in Syria is calculated. There will be short and long term returns. In no way would he invest his own economically broken nation into an extremely messy war and region without expecting hefty returns on his investment.
The overlooked incentive for Russia’s actions in Syria are the economic benefits & geo-strategic advantage of an on the ground military presence in the Middle East. With United States’ withdrawal, Putin sees a window of opportunity. The opportunities lie within the support of the regional states’ governments (Syria, Iraq, and Iran) and in the hindered/stunted economic potential that will blossom with greater security. There are meaningful relationships that can grow out of Russia’s presence. Russia will provide the security and the regional governments will provide the resources.
Russia is already gaining valuable points with the Iraqi government as a result of its military strikes in Syria. Valetina Matvienko, head of the Russian parliament’s upper chamber, said that Russia would ‘consider air strikes in Iraq’ if it received a formal request. The Iraqi government right now is engaging in talks with Russia to plan for airstrikes within Iraq. The chairman of Iraqi parliament’s defense committee, Hakim al-Zamili, noted that:
“In the upcoming few days or weeks, I think Iraq will be forced to ask Russia to launch air strikes, and that depends on their success in Syria,”
This is not a surprise as the world watched the Iraqi military get decimated by ISIS. It is in Iraq’s interest to keep a powerful protector, especially one that has not previously invaded it.
By installing Russia’s military into the Middle East, Putin is sowing the beginnings of a Russian dominated region. The lifting of sanctions in Iran is pushing Russia to secure a market share in the country for Gazprom. Iran’s gas production is in need of serious development before it can become seriously competitive with Russia, making the Russia-Iran relationship a priority.
With the regional wars & instability, the Iraqi and Syrian military demands are growing. Russia’s arms deals with both nations are in the billions of dollars, making these contracts both economically lucrative and helping tighten Russia’s strategic grip on the region. Furthermore, Russia’s economy needs new partners and markets as Europe has unsurprisingly turned a cold shoulder with its sanctions.
All of these events are drawing Russia into the region that the West has given up on. There is much to gain for Russia and the region’s nations.
The West’s Lack of Strategy
It is precisely the West’s disinterest in cleaning up the mess that it had stirred up, that has resulted in this exploitable vacuum. With weak domestic support for more on the ground action in the Middle East and a European crisis, NATO member states have rightfully had to shift its focus and resources. But let us not forget that ISIS grew out of a weak post-invasion Iraqi government. We cannot ignore the fact that chemical weapons were used in Syria.
The lack of a strategy and decisiveness to cope with the region’s challenges has now completely decimated the Syrian people. Europe’s refugee problems are minuscule in comparison to what the broad Levant is facing.
While much of the attention is on Putin’s plans and ambitions, he is simply a reactionary force to the West’s failed strategy. The European Union has been carelessly coercing Ukraine with its Association Agreement without considering the implications it would have on Russia. The United States and the coalition grew so tired of dealing with their own problem in Iraq, that they decided to withdraw without testing the new government. “We made terrible strategic mistakes,” General Colin Powell said in regards to Iraq and the disbanding of the army, including the failure of Maliki’s government.
Benghazi back-fired, and the future of Libya is not looking bright as it deals with its “Second Civil War.” Furthermore, the fall and retaking of Kunduz is just a symptom of deeper underlying problems in Afghanistan. John L. Anderson of the New Yorker writes:
“The fact is that, in the aftermath of the drawdown in Afghanistan, U.S. forces have had to intervene to save a city that has fallen to Islamist extremists, much as they have had to intervene in the aftermath of the withdrawal from Iraq. And although Kunduz has been retaken for now, the outlook there, and throughout Afghanistan, is not promising.”
The outlook is neither promising in Afghanistan, nor in Libya, Iraq and Syria. As much dislike as America and its Allies may have against Putin and his policies, they must accept their own failures. Russia at this moment sees a growing threat in the region, and the only pragmatic way of containing it is to maintain extremely strong leadership at the top. It would have been great if the installation of liberal democratic governments in the region had worked out. But Russia knows that they backfired.
Perhaps a firm Russian involvement in the region can become a beneficial stabilizer. By investing itself economically and militarily, Russia will be bound to maintain security in the region. With the West’s disinterest and withdrawal, Putin will take on full ownership. This may be the best of the worst potential options for the region. Let’s just hope that this will not become the start of great rat race between the lagging West and revisionist Russia.
Economic Conclusion for Russia
If all goes according to plan:
- In the short run, Russia will drive up its weapons exports to Syria, Iraq and its neighbors
- In the medium run, Russia will secure the region and help invest in its redevelopment, thereby securing partial ownership of the region’s hopeful future
- In the long run, it will become the main economic & political partner in the Middle East, which will have significant impact on the demand for Russian goods and services, resulting in a more diversified group of economic partners
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