Bitcoin Has exceeded the Previous All-Time-High — What’s Next?
Price target analysis for 2022/23
This is something many of us have hoped for and others expected as business-as-usual for Bitcoin performance.
If you’re a Bitcoin HODLer, you may remember the pain of trying to get ahold of Bitcoin on [any] reputable exchange back in 2017–2018.
There were barely any quality unhacked-yet crypto exchanges.
And yet we hit near $20k. That was then. Now it’s Fall of 2020, and we just touched that 2018 all-time high again. It’s happening all over again.
Update: We’ve now hit $28,000 on Dec 27, 2020
What's next?
Through all this painstaking process of buying bitcoin and transacting in such ways, Bitcoin was gaining momentum in 2017 and I’m sure your old colleagues and friends may have even asked you about this “Bitcoin thing” and “How to get one”.
All-Time-High 2018
Bitcoin enjoyed a meteoric run up in the fall of 2017, and Hit that all-time high in January 2018, at $19.5K USD. I approximate because the actual figure will vary from exchange to exchange.
Fast track to Fall of 2020, with Crypto Winter behind us — where most cryptocurrencies have fallen dramatically, some by 95%, averaging 85%.
This has shaken off the few so-called “investors” who got lucky, rode up the wave of FOMO — Fear of Missing Out — the new speculative investing crowd. Those were newbies who bought into bitcoin because of the speculative gains (nothing wrong with that) and gambled on the Bigger Fool Ponzi theory.
Some early bitcoin hodlers, once selling off their bags amassing a millionaire’s wealth even came out to says that Bitcoin has no future — don't buy it they said. Bitcoin is dead they said.
They were wrong.
We just hit that 2018 all-time high on 30th November 2020.
- Congratulations Bitcoin.
- Congratulations to the BTC Bag Hodlers.
- Crypto Winter was painful. If you HODLed, you’re a sheer legend.
Predictions — the Bitcoin price based on educated guesses
What does this mean for the future? Well, if you are following the school of thought with the 4-year cycle theory, then we can extrapolate this with Fibonacci extensions on the log scale, and repeat-rinse-repeat the pattern to achieve well over $250K for the Bitcoin price within this current Bull cycle. This also supposes that the current Bull Cycle peak is 2021–22.
Some Quant analysts like Benjamin Cowen say the Bitcoin 4-year cycles are in fact lengthening, and returns are indeed diminishing. The forecasted future valuation of Bitcoin is predicted to be between 110K — 200K USD, sometime around 2023.
If you’re following Plan B with a great example of Stock-To-Flow model (assessment for scarce assets — Bitcoin is one of them), then future Bitcoin price predictions are between $110K to $288 USD based on a 4-year bitcoin halving cycle.
Who would be the new buyers?
With the previous Bitcoin and crypto bull market cycle, the retail crowd pushed the vision, the product, and the idea into the mainstream.
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon regarded Bitcoin as a fraud, and once famously said he will fire anyone holding any bitcoin. He later retracted his statements citing a lack of education on the subject matter. Now JP Morgan is looking to commercialize bitcoin trading.
There is a whole timeline of such events documented on this handy site here.
But one thing is clear, the big financial institution with millions of users and assets under management are coming around to Bitcoin “investing” and cryptocurrency in general.
Now in 2020, the narrative changed. Sure, there are some who don’t get bitcoin. But those who do, paint a very rosy picture. It’s now assumed to be a poor wealth management strategy NOT to expose, say 1% to cryptocurrency, being the future trend, like Bitcoin.
Mainstream and institutional on-boarding is happening. I don't need to tell you how many banks like Wirex and Ziglu are now popping up looking to democratize finance and “all currency is equal” slogans!
(Just don't ask the UK taxman. Crypto is still treated as an asset — you pay CGT on that. But that's for another post)
It does not even have to be the institutional money — which will be a game-changer — to propel BTC in excess of 250K in the next 3–5 years or the on-ramps like PayPal.
Individual millionaires and CEOs of large corporations, having done their due diligence are also buying up Bitcoin, for the long haul.
I’m not talking about a get-rich-quick scheme — that's trading. I’m talking about long-term investing and holding.
And as for the summary — I hope you held. I hope you have some now.
Let me know in the comments below if you plan to buy more. Or if you have a pension scheme that allows you to self-invest into an ETN — Bitcoin Tracker Index.
It does not get more long-haul than a pension fund HODLing in my opinion.
Hope you enjoyed the read.
