State of (Digital) Product Design 2023
IDEO — the founder of design thinking- has recently laid off a large portion of its staff; and many pundits are lauding the end of UX design, and/or its decline. I am not sure why people have this opinion, because, to my mind, AI is no threat to product design. So, if it is true that UX design is no longer a strategic imperative — what is the reason?
Well, let’s examine the reason why it became an imperative: because attention spans are as short as patience in the new digital world, and if your digital experience doesn’t grab the user by the ..eyes in 5 seconds or less, you’re out of business.
Apple proved out the thesis that design is good business, and everyone followed.
Now, what is the cause of the change in heart? Is it because UX is now fully baked-in to many organisations, and the problem of attention-seeking dollars is captured? Not at all. But I think it is safe to assume that, thanks to *some* investment in UX, the issue is mitigated enough not to be top of mind anymore.
Of course, the shiny new toy is generative AI. And I’ll be the first to wonder at this miracle. However, AI is simply a sharper tool which which to pry open the customer’s pocket (from the perspective of a profit-seeking org). AI — in-and-of-itself — does not a product bake: So, how does it help organisations attract more dollars (excluding coveting VCs)? In short, it doesn’t.
The perceived value of AI is “cost cutting”. Reduce the COGS. Especially in today’s Ebeneezer and Shylock financial environment. After all, there are only two pedals in the see-saw world of private enterprise: higher earnings, or lower costs. Increasing productivity with the same headcount is equivalent to lowering costs.
But this zero-sum math doesn’t add up for me: what organisations really crave is exponential productivity, thrice the employees: This model is a sure-fire win over the zero-sum model. Reducing headcount is never the solution to a growing market’s needs, and smart organisations are always in a growing market.
So, how does this environment affect UX and Product Design in 2023?
If organisations are increasing their headcount and their productivity - which is the only way to compete — then they are simply moving more quickly towards the direction they were already going: that can only be market leadership, or bankruptcy.
Organisations tottering towards bankruptcy will simply fall headlong into it, thanks to the inflammatory effects of exponential productivity. AI doesn’t alter the reason why an enterprise is heading for success or failure: it only exacerbates it.
This is because AI, as a lever of productivity, requires an operator, and a skilled operator at that.
So, in the end we return to the basic economics of an enterprise and the factors of its success, or failure: those of product-market fit. Organisations, with or without AI, still need to solve the real problems of their customers: and those problems are discovered, defined, designed and delivered by product designers. “Power is nothing, without control”.
Hence, my optimism. Have a nice day!
