The Mathematics of Cold Hormesis: Quantifying Cold Plunge Therapy

Thomas P Seager, PhD
Morozko: Uncommon Cold
3 min readAug 22, 2024
How much cold does your ice bath deliver? | Thomas P Seager, PhD

In my years of researching and practicing cold plunge therapy, I’ve noticed a significant gap: despite extensive research, we’ve lacked a standardized method for measuring the “dose” of cold exposure. To address this, I’ve developed an approach to quantifying cold exposure, which I believe can help practitioners optimize their cold plunge regimens.

Through my observations, I’ve found that cold tolerance varies significantly between individuals, influenced by both physiological and psychological factors. Regular cold exposure induces adaptations such as increased brown fat activation and improved vasoconstriction, affecting an individual’s response to cold over time.

Drawing from my background in environmental engineering and toxicology, I’ve proposed a new measure: Time Under Temperature. This metric combines two key factors:

  1. The individual’s thermal comfort line
  2. The duration of cold water immersion

By calculating the product of the temperature difference (delta) between the comfort line and water temperature, and the exposure time, we can determine a standardized “cold dose.”

Hormetic dose-response response curves show health benefits at moderate levels of stress — not extreme.

In my research, I’ve found that the concept of hormesis applies perfectly to cold exposure. Insufficient cold exposure may not trigger metabolic benefits, while excessive exposure risks hypothermia. The challenge lies in identifying the optimal dose that stimulates positive adaptations without overwhelming the system.

While this measure is currently theoretical, I believe it provides a solid foundation for quantifying and potentially optimizing cold plunge practices. By establishing an individual thermal comfort line and monitoring responses to different “doses,” practitioners can refine their approach.

I’ve been intrigued by recent research from the University of Copenhagen suggesting that 3–4 minutes of winter swimming per week may be sufficient to maintain active brown fat. Using the Time Under Temperature measure, I’ve been able to translate such findings into practical guidelines that can be adjusted for different water temperatures and individual tolerance levels.

Through developing this metric, I emphasize the importance of individualizing cold exposure practices. I encourage practitioners to consider their personal thermal comfort line and adjust their cold plunge duration accordingly. This approach aligns with my understanding that optimal cold exposure varies between individuals and can change over time with consistent practice.

I believe the introduction of a standardized measure for cold exposure dose has significant implications for both research and practical application of cold therapy. It may provide a more consistent way to compare results across studies and help individuals track their progress more effectively.

As I continue my research, I see the Time Under Temperature metric as a starting point for more precise quantification of cold exposure. It’s my hope that this approach will invite both researchers and practitioners to consider cold exposure in a more nuanced way, potentially leading to more effective and personalized cold therapy protocols.

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