How the Mets firesale could change the MLB sellers' market
In the 2022 offseason, the New York Mets set an MLB record with a $364 million dollar payroll for the 2023 season, signing Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana, and extending Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Adam Ottavino. With all this money spent on the team by billionaire Steven A. Cohen, it was the hope that the Mets could improve off a wild-card elimination and a 101-win season before signing their big-time free agents.
But in 2023, the Mets completely went off the rails. It started with the injury of Edwin Diaz in the 2023 WBC, hurting the Mets before they played their first game in 2023. But when play eventually started, the Mets were not playing up to what their payroll expected. After barely staying above .500 through the month of May, the Mets went 7–19 in June, tanking them in the NL Wild Card standings. Their two $40+ million dollar pitchers were both regressing with age, with Max Scherzer having the highest ERA he’s had since 2011, and Verlander going from a 1.75 ERA to a 3.15 in just a year. The Mets also had to deal with the rise of the Miami Marlins as a playoff contender, and the sheer dominance of the Braves, which put them in a tough position when July came around.
But what the Mets did in the month of July and August 1st was something that will reshape the way that big market teams can sell when things fall apart early.
Here is a short rundown of what was traded and what was received.
Traded:
RHP David Roberston, $3.5 Million owed, Traded to the Marlins.
RHP Max Scherzer, 1.5 years, Mets pay $35 million out of the 57.5 million owed over the next 1.5 years. Traded to the Rangers.
OF Mark Cahna, 1 year + Club option, Mets pay all $3.5 million owed for the rest of the year, Traded to the Brewers.
RHP Justin Verlander, 1.5 years, Mets pay $35 million plus half of Verlander’s 2025 $35 million dollar option if opted in. Traded to the Astros
Tommy Pham, 0.5 years, Arizona pays 1.6 million left on salary. Traded to the Diamondbacks.
Received:
INF Marco Vargas, 18 years old, currently in Low-A, #9 Marlins Prospect, ETA 2027
C Ronald Hernandez, 19 years old, currently in rookie ball, #24 Marlins Prospect, ETA 2026
RHP Justin Jarvis, currently in Triple-A, #12 Brewers prospect, ETA 2024
SS/2B Luisangel Acuna, currently in Double-A, #4 Rangers Prospect, ETA 2024
OF Drew Gilbert, currently in Double-A, #1 Astros Prospect, ETA 2024
OF Ryan Clifford, currently in High-A, #4 Astros Prospect, ETA 2026
SS Jeremy Rodriguez, currently in rookie ball, #47 ranked prospect in the 2023 international Signing class, ETA 2028–2029
Here’s how the prospects rank according to MLB pipeline.
Acuna #1, Gilbert #4, Clifford #6, Vargas #9, Jarvis #15, Hernandez #22, Rodriguez unranked.
Why is this so different than years past?
In 2022, the Cincinnati Reds sold Luis Castillo, Brandon Durury, Tyler Mahle, Tyler Naquin, and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline. They also shipped off Eugenio Suarez and Jessie Winker before the 2022 season.
They received:
Noelvi Marte #1 Reds prospect (#15 overall), Edwin Arroyo #2 Reds prospect (#23 overall), Christian Encarnacion-Strand #4 Reds prospect (#82 overall), Connor Phillps #5 Reds prospect (#98 overall), Brandon Williamson #6 prospect in 2022 (graduated), Spencer Steer, #7 Reds prospect in 2022 (graduated in 2023), Levi Stout #10 Reds prospect, Victor Acosta #12 Reds prospect.
The Reds haul in 2022 was an impressive feat considering their farm system was already solid before the deadline. But after the deadline, they jumped all the way to fifth-ranked in the league, with Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, and Williamson all impacting the 2023 Reds in a big way.
The difference between this haul and the Mets haul is that the Reds sent seven players in return for eight top 15 prospects, while the Mets sent five players and over $70 million dollars for five top 15 prospects.
As owners become richer and more willing to spend more on players, more “cash considerations” can mean a lot more than years past. Teams playing part of player's salaries is nothing new, whether from cutting players on existing contracts or trades like the ones the Mets where a team sends money to pay part of the contract for a better return package.
So in the same way that the Mets became the highest payroll in MLB history, ignoring the Luxury Tax and all, the Mets willingly took on massive chunks in contracts in order to score better prospects. This new money coming in from owners like Steven A. Cohen is something that needs to be noted in a sport that lacks a salary cap; reshaping the way of the firesale could create a bigger rift between small-market and big-market teams. Not many teams can ship off players while paying a massive amount of their contracts due to sunk cost, and when sellers are trying to deal with players for prospects, it can lead to a worse return, and an uneven playing field.
As I see it there are two types of players in an MLB trade market.
The first is players that either got a second chance with a new team or an expiring contract that a team is trying to get value for. We’ll call these rentals for the sake of it. These players usually are either hitting the market the next year or the year after and are not seen as players who will be extended by their clubs. These players are either about to hit the market, or have already hit the market, but usually do not have much team control or arbitration left.
The other is players that have team control and are usually young players in a team’s core. These players usually have several years of sustained success and are usually in arbitration or a long-term deal. These players usually are considered “untouchable” at first, but desperate times sometimes call for desperate measures. We’ll call these players core players.
Examples of these players can be found on a team like the White Sox, who were going through a firesale in 2023 and held both types of players. The White Sox sold Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Lucas Giolito, and Kendall Graveman at the deadline, all players that could be designated as rentals. These players weren’t in the cards for the White Sox’s future. The White Sox did not trade all-star Dylan Cease at the trade deadline due to either too high of a price point or the fact that he was too important for the White Sox's future, with two more years of team control left.
In a firesale, teams look for the rentals first, because waving a white flag for the foreseeable future is never a good look. The first to go are players who are having resurgent seasons after being average or below average in the past. Selling high on these players usually comes at little cost to a team that has no aspirations for the playoffs, and can get value out of a player that may not hit his stride for the team in the next year. Examples of these include Jorge Lopez from the Orioles in 2022 and Jemier Candelario from the Nationals in 2023. The next rentals are players that have been historically good, but either are looking for a pay bump in free agency or don’t want to stay on a losing team. Lynn and Giolito could be examples of these players.
Core players go last because a team eventually does want to compete for a championship, and buying these players will either result in a door in your face or a hefty price to pay. The biggest example is Juan Soto, who had 2.5 years of control left on his contract and was dealt from the Nationals to the Padres for a prospect haul.
In my opinion, Scherzer and Verlander were core Mets players, whether they were struggling or not, both with massive amounts of money left on their deals, and a reported sentiment of staying with the ball club. Players like Cahna and Pham could be considered rentals in this situation, but the money on their contracts was nothing to scoff at either. By eliminating the money problem, the Mets can function like they are selling off arbitration players, which creates a bigger return and a way to reset the farm for 2024.
Why is this important? The way that the MLB creates parity is through its farm system, which is what every American sports team does via the draft. The problem is that instead of picks, the MLB trades prospects, which is one of the only ways that small market or bad teams can rebuild a failing roster. A team like the Reds is a perfect example of a failing team punting on their season to build on the future, and having that gamble pay off in 2023.
But parity is threatened when contracts can be eaten by rich owners who can sign these massive contracts and then sell them off to teams at a personal loss. This isn’t to say Cohen’s actions are bad, but it is revolutionary to see an owner not only blow the salary cap out of the water but sell players, rentals, and core players alike, by using their own personal wealth.
The case of Drew Gilbert of the Astros is one that is interesting. Gibert was seen as an untouchable prospect in trades by people within the MLB, seeing he was the #1 prospect in a depleted Astros farm system. While Verlander is a very good pitcher who is very familiar with the Astros organization, Gilbert and Clifford for the price of Verlander’s premium contract is something that would be too much for the Astros as they are in their prime. That’s why Cohen covering more than half of the deal, including a potential opt-in in 2025, is revolutionary, scoring more prospect value from taking money out of his own pocket.
As teams like the Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, and St. Louis Cardinals all struggle, we could see owners use cash considerations as ways to leverage more prospects, causing an uneven seller's market. The Mets may have been in a unique situation, but it is something to keep an eye on in the near future.
