Climate Change is Climing Mount Dora (3)
Inland — But Not Out of Danger (part 3 of 6)
What about climate change impacts to the interior of the state, in Central Florida where we live? Sadly, the evidence is mounting of a regional stress that will result in catastrophe if local planners don’t soon begin their work.
The biggest impact will be a steady migration of sea level rise refugees. A 2016 study by Mathew Hauer, Phd, an applied demographer at the University of Georgia, looked at coastal counties around the United States that would experience displacement if there is 3–6 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. (The range represents a median sea level rise prediction of three feet by 2100 by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2009, and NOAA’s high end prediction of 6 feet by the same year.) In it he projects that with 3 feet of sea level rise, some 4.2 million Americans would be displaced from flooded coastal areas, with that number rising to 13 million at the 6-foot level.
Where will these people go? According to Hauer’s study, Florida would see the greatest displacement, followed by Louisiana; and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford cluster also known as Central Florida will see the second greatest population increase in the country, second only to Austin, TX — about 460,000 new residents by 2100 relocated primarily due to sea level rise. Austin is projected to take the largest number of migrants due to the emptying out of Louisiana coastal areas. (And note, this research does not take into storm-related migration from Puerto Rico following this summer’s events.)
That’s half a million migrants who will have varying resources for adapting to their new circumstances. Hauer is now working on projections of the demographic makeup of these refugees — age, economic status, race — as they relocate across the country. If a significant number of them are poor, that will have enormous impact on how Central Florida meets their housing needs. The $350,000 3/2 may be eclipsed by the $800-a- month 2/1 apartment for six.
Sea level rise will also affect water levels of lakes and rivers, though how much is difficult to determine because groundwater hydrology is complex. Salt water intrusion will become a factor in Brevard and Volusia, making irrigation problematic and threatening potable water supplies.
Water — lots of it — is coming in other ways. Inland flooding is on the rise. Heaviest downpours have increased almost 20% since 1950, and by 2050, inland flooding events are projected to increase another 40%. Tropical storm activity and hurricanes are expected to intensify as surface water temperatures rise, challenging already-flooding coastal areas and making evacuation routes more difficult. These big storms will also bring immense rainfall events. Stormwater infrastructure in many communities was built for weather realities that are passing, and a significant amount of investment will be needed to keep low lying areas from flooding significantly.
Climate change means alternating extremes; lack of water will become an increasing problem as well as drought cycles intensify.
Temperature increases due to climate change in Florida will have also have a considerable impact — the worst in the country. Ten of the 25 top hottest cities in the U.S. are already located in Florida. Summers are also getting muggier as dewpoint levels rise (there is more moisture in a heating atmosphere). The combination of high heat and humidity is creating heat days dangerous to health (heat index above 104 degrees) — on average 25 days a year now, but that number will increase to 130 by 2050. Florida is experiencing 30 more stagnant summer air days than is in 1973. Summers are hotter in cities, much warmer at night. Mosquito populations will become more resilient in the warm seasons. Diseases thrive and spread in warm, humid and wet conditions.
It gets worse. All southern states are expected to experience significant heat impacts, but Florida and Texas are expected to experience lethal summer temperatures. A May 2017 study in Nature Climate Change looked at lethal heat events in 164 cities in 36 countries and determined a global temperature beyond which daily heat and relative humidity become deadly. By 2100, Orlando could see 100 of those deadly hot days every year.
The economic effect of this could be devastating. Coastal communities will be hit the hardest of course — a June 2017 study in Science estimates that 15 Florida counties could see GDP drops of more than 15%. The poor, the sick and elderly are more vulnerable to heat extremes, so with its high number of retirees and relatively high poverty rate of 16 percent for the region (Orange, Osceola, Lake and Seminole Counties) — not to mention poorer migrants from coastal areas — these impacts will be significant. Tourism will surely suffer as well, greatly impacting the regional economy.
Agriculture will be threatened. Extreme heat in South Florida over the past two winters caused dramatic stresses on strawberry production. Most citrus groves moved south of I-4 to get away from devastating freezes of the late 1980s, but now the additional heat in the southern peninsula is bringing an increase in weeds, insects and other pests. As a result, citrus is moving back north again. Unfortunately, most of Lake County’s groves have been converted to residential development. Increased heat will also make agricultural work much more stressful, and finding workers maybe become increasingly difficult.
Dr. Paul Stephenson is a botanist and associate professor of biology at Rollins College, and he sees heat increases having significant impacts on the local ecology. One of the things he’s studied in the past are several species of micro-organisms that can cause toxic algal blooms, such as the one which caused a massive fish kill in the Indian River lagoon last year.
“Toxic algae blooms are like healthcare issues,” he said in a telephone interview. “They are much easier to prevent than treat. We can reduce impacts coming excess nutrients getting into the water supply by agriculture and lawn care, but the jury is still out on the triggers.” And although trees tend to be more resilient to the effects of climate change.
A 2006 study by myregion.org, a Central Florida collective of residents, businesses, government and civic organizations, identified seven critical sensitive environmental areas in Central Florida, including the St. Johns mosaic of lakes, Indian River lagoon, greater Kissimmee prairie, Volusia conservation corridor, the Green Swamp, Wekiva-Ocala greenway and Lake Wales ridge. According to Stephenson, in the years since the report only the Kissimmee prairie has seen improvement. Recent efforts to restore the Kissimmee river have been remarkably successful. However, development continues in other areas and this has taxed freshwater supplies, increased runoff pollutants from roads and caused habitat loss and ecosystem degradation.
Combined stresses from more development to accommodate coastal flooding migrants as well as ever-higher sweltering heat may push these ecosystems to the limit.
“Plants are resilient creatures, and established ones will be good at resisting climate change,” he says. “However, regeneration will be come increasingly difficult. And increased C02 levels in the atmosphere won’t necessarily help them survive as they become nutrient limited.”
As can be expected in a global ecology, climate change impacts elsewhere will have an effect locally. As North Africa desertifies, greater quantities of dust will transport across the Atlantic Ocean and degrade air quality in Central Florida.
Climate change will be hard on Florida’s wildlife. Thirty percent of the Florida panther’s habitat will be lost by century’s end; Key Deer will vanish along with the Florida Keys; the Red-cockaded Woodpecker is disappearing as pine forests are logged or cleared for development; manatees are threatened by the spread of toxic algae blooms; the migratory pattern of the Yellow Throated Warbler may shift north of Florida to get away from the heat; the gopher tortoise is being lost to urban sprawl; coral reefs are vanishing as the seas become warmer and more acidic.
These losses are an infinitesimal portion of a world-wide extinction event now underway, the sixth of its kind since life began habiting the Earth. An extinction event is what happens when there’s a widespread and rapid decrease in biodiversity. They’ve occurred when there is sustained global cooling or warming. The last extinction event was some 66 million years ago and probably was the result of an asterioid strike; the atmosphere cooled significantly and three quarters of plant and animal species went extinct. Since about 1900, animal extinctions are occurring at 1,000 times the background extinction rate, largely the result of human activity.
In the sixth extinction, humankind is the asterioid.
And citizens of Mount Dora ride that rock with everyone else.
Up next: Climate change mitigation is a local job
— David Cohea (djcohea@gmail.com)
David Cohea edits the blog and Facebook page Mount Dora Topics and is director of Live Oak Collective, a Mount Dora, FL-based historic and environmental preservation community.
