Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen is an absolute failure.

Anyone who follows Middle Eastern politics has heard of the Saudi-led coalition’s endeavour against the Houthis. They are a Shia Islamist terror group who in 2015 illegally overthrew the democratically elected government of Yemen, which was led by AbdRabbuh Mansur al Hadi. Subsequently, he leaves the country, and Saudi Arabia and all of their regional allies commit aircraft against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia expects it to be a swift campaign; blockade the Houthis and bomb them into submission.

This is where the first mistake of the campaign begins. Saudi Arabia is arguably the most powerful nation in the region. Rather then indulge themselves in another proxy conflict, it would have been much more responsible to bring both sides to the negotiating table and work something out. They have previously been committed to maintain stability and democracy in Yemen. They should have also recognized that although an immense amount of Yemen’s population is supportive of the Hadi government, their is also a significant portion that is not. Thus, both sides of the Yemeni population should have been considered.

Secondly, anyone who has done research on the Houthis knows that they are an extremely determined organization. Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government and even the United States have engaged in conflict with them beforehand, yet the organization still exists in full fledge. Therefore, the whole idea of a forced surrender through a quick campaign would not work.

Now, I’m going to get to the part you’ve all been waiting for. Yesterday, the Saudi-led alliance admitted to hitting a civilian area by accident, killing 14. Many hold the belief that the coalition strikes civilian areas on purpose. Whether this is truthful or not is debatable. However, when the coalition kills civilians. It turns potential supporters away from the pro-Hadi forces and turns them to the Houthis, giving the internationally unrecognized government in San’aa some sort of legitimacy, potentially garnering recognition as a resistance group by many.

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s war in the Republic of Yemen may not result in a military defeat, but will result in loss of legitimacy for the Arab kingdom and its allies. The best and probably only viable solution to the conflict would be to split Yemen back into the South/North Yemen situation that existed before 1990. This would result in states with Sunni and Shia pluralities respectively, therefore eliminating any possibility of internal sectarian conflict. However, this is only assuming that the Houthis, and their ally, deposed president Ali Abdallah Saleh, would agree to this. The Houthis, a hard-line extremist group, and Ali Abdallah Saleh, once Yemen’s dictator for the first two decades of it’s existence, don’t seem like two factions that would be willing to split the territory of Yemen with their opposition.

mrkailani.com

Personal blog of Mohammad Rasoul Al Kailani

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15 year old Arab-Canadian writer who mainly writes about the Middle East.

Personal blog of Mohammad Rasoul Al Kailani

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