Killing Air: Apple’s Game Plan for the next generation of iPads.
Since January, reports have indicated that Apple is planning on launching its long awaited next-generation 9.7-inch tablet, the iPad Air 3, at an event in March. The iPad Air 2, which was launched in October of 2014, has become outdated, while the the 12.9-inch iPad Pro launched this past fall is easily the highest-speced iOS device ever.
Today, 9to5mac’s Mark Gurman reported some unexpected news: The iPad set to be unveiled at Apple’s upcoming March 15th event is not an updated iPad Air. Rather, it is a new, smaller addition to the iPad Pro lineup.
Gurman reports the new device will have close-to-identical specs to its larger sibling, meaning that this new smaller iPad Pro will likely be marketed as a more professional, and therefore more expensive, device.
The notion that this new device will be more expensive makes sense, and was the main theme I was reading on Twitter when this new broke out, so let’s start with talking about price.
The way I see it, one of three things happens:
A) Apple releases the new iPad Pro with the exact same specs and storage configurations as the larger one, and therefore prices it at $700, $100 cheaper than the larger model.
B) Apple releases the new iPad Pro with the exact same specs and storage configuarations as the larger one, but prices it significantly cheaper, somewhere below $600. In this scenario, I’d presume an iPad Pro 12.9 price drop would occur as well.
C) Apple releases the new iPad Pro with similar specs and storage configurations as the larger one, and therefore prices it in the $500–$600 range.
The main technical differentiators between iPad Air 2 and iPad Pro 12.9 are the A9X chip, the accessory connector, stereo speakers, and 4GB of RAM. Beyond this, there is nothing different between the two devices.
So, the bump from A8X to A9X on a next-gen iPad should be expected, meaning the only thing here we’re really looking at as a possible price-increase is the bump from 2GB to 4GB of RAM. That shouldn’t cost much, even including Apple tax, and really exemplifies the point that the main reason iPad Pro is more expensive than iPad Air is the screen.
It’s definitely possible, especially as Gurman said the device would be nearly identical, that Apple only ships the 9.7-inch model with 3GB of RAM.
As such, of the three examples above, I think C is by far the most likely, and I believe the entry iPad Pro 9.7 will remain under $600.
One important note to touch on is the possibility of an iPad Pro price decrease. While the device did outsell the Microsoft Surface during the holiday season, it is possible the device is more of hard-sell then Apple had hoped it would be. Once you throw in a device with literally the same specs at a significant price drop, it’s hard to imagine why anyone would buy an iPad Pro at $800.
While some of these changes to the iPad lineup structure may seem odd, it is becoming more and more clear that Apple is starting to take a very serious look at iPads potential in the future.
Back in December, I wrote in Apple in 2016:
At the moment, Apple’s main five product categories — iPhone, iPad, Mac, Watch, and TV — are powered by four operating systems, which are powered by two core systems. This doesn’t make sense, and Apple knows it…
Following last year’s launch of both the Apple Watch, the new Apple TV, and their respective new operating systems, it is clear Apple now sees the need for iOS to be redeveloped for different devices. Many have been complaining for years that iOS on the iPad makes it just a bigger iPhone, and the only thing to differentiate it is apps. This point recently became even more prevalent with the launch of the iPad Pro.
This year, it is likely that Apple has caved, and is developing a core “iOS 10” which will power all four of the [potential] iOS operating systems: watchOS, iPhoneOS, iPadOS, and tvOS. This will allow Apple to begin assigning certain features directly to the iPad, which they were unable or unwilling to do before this change.
This is the clearest sign yet that this prediction is going to come true.
By pushing out the Air, and therefore all lower-speced iPad devices, from the public as the ‘current-gen’ iPads, iPad will now be and continue to be significantly more powerful than other devices in the iOS lineup, making room for a new update of iOS built specifically for these faster, larger devices. The iPadOS is coming.
The Air is dying, and will soon be dead. Both on the iPad lineup and on the Mac lineup.
The new MacBook is clearly poised to overtake the MacBook Air at some point. All it would take is for Apple to release a next-generation MacBook Pro with an all-new thinner design.
Similarly, by not releasing an iPad Air 3, and presumably lowering the price of Air 2 before killing it, Apple will have clear differences in its lineup, as to no longer confuse customers. You have two choices: Consumer or Pro. iPad mini or iPad Pro, MacBook or MacBook Pro, and, with change inevitably coming, iPhone or iPhone Plus.
