From Rebellion to Regulation

Winn Decker
Municipal Research Lab
5 min readApr 22, 2024

The Evolution of Property Tax Limitations

In the landscape of American fiscal policy, few topics have stirred as much debate and legislative action as Property Tax and Expenditure Limitations (TELs). While the modern-day spread of TELS was sparked by the taxpayer revolts of the 1970s and 1980s, these limitations have become a cornerstone in efforts to control local government spending and taxing authority. From California’s Proposition 13 to Massachusetts’ Proposition 2½, TELs have reshaped the financial structures of state and local governments and echoed the public’s call for greater fiscal restraint and transparency.

In the landscape of American fiscal policy, few topics have stirred as much debate and legislative action as Property Tax and Expenditure Limitations (TELs). While the modern-day spread of TELS was sparked by the taxpayer revolts of the 1970s and 1980s, these limitations have become a cornerstone in efforts to control local government spending and taxing authority. From California’s Proposition 13 to Massachusetts’ Proposition 2½, TELs have reshaped the financial structures of state and local governments and echoed the public’s call for greater fiscal restraint and transparency.

Today, as economic pressures mount and governmental financial autonomy becomes ever more critical, the relevance of TELs continues to grow. With states grappling with the dual challenges of funding essential services and maintaining fiscal health, understanding the adoption and impact of TELs is more important than ever. This article explores how TELs diffused across the U.S. and what this means for taxpayers and state and local governments.

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The Modern Story of Property Tax Limitations

While property tax caps have been around for centuries, the modern genesis of Property Tax and Expenditure Limitations (TELs) can be traced back to significant political and economic turbulence in the United States. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, skyrocketing property taxes led to widespread dissatisfaction among taxpayers. This culminated in a series of taxpayer revolts, most notably in California with the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978. This movement was a protest against high taxes and a call for more accountability and control over local fiscal decisions. As these sentiments spread across the country, numerous states began adopting similar measures, embedding TELs firmly into their fiscal policy frameworks.

TELs typically come in several forms, each aimed at curbing the authority of local governments to increase taxes or spending without voter approval. Rate limits cap the rate at which a property tax can be levied, essentially limiting the percentage of property value that can be taxed. Levy limits restrict the total amount of revenue a locality can raise from property taxes each year. Finally, assessment increase limits constrain how much the assessed value of a property for tax purposes can rise in a given year. The intent behind these mechanisms is twofold: to protect taxpayers from sudden and steep tax increases, providing a sense of financial security, and to compel local governments to operate more efficiently by prioritizing essential services and curbing wasteful spending. By understanding these tools and their intended effects, we can better appreciate the complex interplay between taxpayers’ rights and governmental responsibilities.

Using a Multiple-Event History Analysis to Study TELs

I employed a multiple-event history analysis to understand the widespread adoption of Property TELs across the United States. This method allowed me to track when and how frequently each state implemented these fiscal constraints from 1977 to 2016. By analyzing data across all 50 states, I captured a comprehensive view of the evolving landscape of TELs.

This approach pinpointed the timing of TEL adoptions and enabled me to examine the repeated instances of policy changes within states, offering insights into the dynamic nature of fiscal governance. Utilizing this methodology, I explored the patterns of TEL adoption and discerned the factors influencing states’ decisions to impose or adjust these limitations. This deep dive into state-level data provides a view of how a state’s internal characteristics, such as political, economic, and social forces, and external forces have shaped property tax policy over nearly four decades.

Drivers of TEL Adoption

In my study on adopting Property TELs across the United States, I applied the Innovation and Diffusion Framework (IDF) to analyze how these policies spread from one jurisdiction to another. This framework highlights the importance of internal and external factors in influencing policy adoption. While internal factors were controlled for in the analysis, the external factors — policy learning, competition, imitation, and coercion — formed the basis of my hypotheses and shaped the key findings.

Policy learning emerged as a crucial element, where states adopt TELs after observing the outcomes in others. This trend is particularly evident where there is public pressure to reduce tax burdens, especially when a state has a high population of fixed-income residents. The effectiveness of TELs in one state often inspires similar measures in others as policymakers seek proven solutions to fiscal challenges.

Economic competition between states also drives the adoption of TELs. States implement these policies to enhance their attractiveness as locations for businesses and residents, aiming to offer competitive tax rates. This strategic move is often motivated by the desire to prevent residents and businesses from relocating to states with more favorable tax regimes.

Imitation plays a significant role as well. States frequently look to leaders in fiscal policy and adopt similar TELs to align with successful models. This pattern indicates that states are influenced by their immediate neighbors and broader national trends, suggesting a widespread recognition of the benefits these policies can bring in maintaining fiscal stability and voter approval.

Finally, coercion through direct democracy mechanisms such as voter-initiated referendums significantly influences TEL adoption. In states where citizens have substantial power to propose and enact legislation, TELs are more commonly adopted. This underscores the influential role of voter engagement in directing state fiscal policies and highlights the democratic underpinnings of fiscal reform movements.

Challenges and Limitations

While this study provides valuable insights into the factors influencing the adoption of TELs, it has limitations. One of the primary challenges is the inherent complexity of isolating specific factors within the multifaceted environments of state governments. However, the analysis controlled for internal factors and focused on external drivers; the interplay between these elements can sometimes obscure clear causal relationships.

Furthermore, while extensive, the reliance on historical data from 1977 to 2016 does not capture the most recent trends in TEL adoption, which may be influenced by current economic fluctuations and political changes. Future research could benefit from incorporating more contemporary data and a broader range of qualitative insights to understand the evolving motivations behind these policies.

Conclusion & Future Paths for Fiscal Policy Research

Understanding the dynamics behind adopting TELs is crucial for grasping how states manage their fiscal autonomy in response to taxpayer demands and economic pressures. This study highlights the significant role of external factors such as policy learning, competition, imitation, and coercion in shaping these decisions.

Reflecting on these findings, it becomes apparent that state fiscal policies are reactions to internal pressures and part of a broader dialogue within the tapestry of American federalism. As we continue to debate the merits and drawbacks of TELs, policymakers, researchers, and the public must consider these factors in their discussions. This will ensure more informed decisions that balance the need for fiscal discipline with the necessity of providing adequate public services.

This article is based on the paper “Adoption of Property Tax and Expenditure Limitations by U.S. States: A Multiple Events History Analysis” published in Public Finance Journal.

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