BREXIT — What now and what awaits

BREXIT

Britain or the United Kingdom, one of the most flourished nations, is stepping out of the greatest economic and political union. The exit of Britain from the European Union, named ‘BREXIT’ will influence the trade and tradition of a cluster of European nations and its associates. As the transition period is going on, amidst the outbreak of the world’s deadliest pandemic, the challenges faced are innumerable.

2016 United Kingdom Referendum

On Thursday 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted for the second time in 41 years on its membership to the European Union (EU) with the overseas territory Gibraltar also voting on the issue for the very first time. The referendum was called after Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron made a manifesto commitment in the 2015 United Kingdom general election to undertake a renegotiation of the UK’s membership to the European Union which would be followed by an in-out referendum. All of the major political parties were in favour of remaining an EU member, except for a split within the Conservative Party. The cabinet was split between pro-EU and anti-EU ministers, and Cameron suspended the constitutional convention of Cabinet collective responsibility, allowing ministers to publicly campaign on either side. Seven of the 23 members of the Cabinet opposed continued EU membership.

Voters were asked to vote “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the European Union” on the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

The “Leave” option was voted by 52% of voters, as opposed to 48% of voters who wished to “Remain”. Of the 382 voting areas, 263 returned majority votes in favour of “Leave” whereas 119 returned majority votes in favour of “Remain” which included every Scottish council area and all but five of the London boroughs. The vote revealed divisions among the constituent nations of the United Kingdom, with England and Wales voting to leave, but Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to remain. It was the first time a UK-wide referendum result had gone against the preferred choice of HM Government who had officially recommended a “Remain” vote and it led to a period of political turmoil. As a direct consequence of losing the referendum, David Cameron announced his resignation as Prime Minister and on July 13 he was succeeded by Theresa May who later resigned in 2019 due to the issue remaining unsolved. After the vote, there was frequent public discussion as to whether the result of the referendum was advisory or mandatory, but the High Court stated on 3 November 2016 that, in the absence of a specific provision in the enabling legislation (and in this case there was none) “a referendum on any topic can only be advisory for the lawmakers in Parliament”.

Why step out?

The reasons for holding a referendum to vote upon the continuation of the UK in the EU as a result of many arguments prevailing in their political, economical and social relationship. The EU imparts too many restrictions on British lawmakers. They might have to change their currency from pound to euro which is not only unstable but able to be influenced by weaker countries like Greece. As the EU was planning to make the euro the common currency for all its members, this situation was unavoidable, if continued in the EU. The UK is also concerned about the EU restrictions imposed on their emigration laws. The EU allows the emigrants to access employment and benefits. But the then British Prime Minister David Cameron had been working to restrict benefits and housing to those who have been in the country for at least 4 years. This proposal was directly opposed by the European Commission. EU law which was supreme UK law, tempted the nation to set its foot back.

Also talking from the political point of view, even though many British conservatives see the EU as imposing left-wing, big-government policies on Britain, some on the British left see things the other way around: that the EU’s antidemocratic structure gives too much power to corporate elites and prevents the British Left from making significant gains.

Last but not the least, the argument about Britain funding the EU arose as a push for the Brexit supporters. Currently, the UK’s contribution is worth about £13 billion ($19 billion) per year, which is about $300 per person in the UK. (“Leave” supporters have been citing a larger figure, but that figure ignores a rebate that’s automatically subtracted from the UK’s contribution.)

While much of this money is spent on services in the UK, Brexit supporters still argue that it would be better for the UK to simply keep the money and have Parliament decide how to spend it.

In the snap elections of December 2019, when Boris Johnson dissolved the parliament seeking a bigger mandate, he came with a much bigger majority even bigger than Margaret Thatcher's victory. The Labour Party, the primary opposition and left-wing party lost much of its support across the English heartland. This was a big setback for its leader Jeremy Corbyn forcing him to resign from party leadership. The Labour Party which made big gains in the snap elections called by Teresa May lost everything.

First the loss of the referendum and then the elections, the Britsh left was already on the decline and ultimately collapsed under the leadership of Boris Johnson with strong “Leave campaign”. The rise of Brexit party also damped their prospectus of coming back.

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal

Most of the changes — to the deal agreed by Theresa May with the EU in November 2018 — are to do with the status of the Irish border after Brexit. There will be a change in customs policies as the whole of the UK will leave the EU customs union and hence the UK will be able to strike trade deals with other countries in the future. Changes will happen upon the regulation of goods, VAT (Value Added Tax) and some economic terms. But things remain the same in cases of citizens and financial obligations to the EU. the details of Northern Ireland regulations will be further discussed in this article.

The transition period

The time gap between 1st February 2020 and 31st December 2020, is a crucial time over which the deals of the EU and UK are to be sorted out. This 11 month period keeps the UK bound to the EU’s rules.

What is the transition period?

During this period, the UK will remain in both the EU customs union and single market. This means that until the transition period is over, most things remain the same. Which includes:

• Travelling to and from the EU (including the rules around driving licences and pet passports)
• Freedom of movement (the right to live and work in the EU and vice versa)
• UK-EU trade, which will continue without any extra charges or checks being introduced

The UK will automatically lose its membership of the EU’s political institutions, including the European Parliament and European Commission. So, while the UK will no longer have any voting rights, it will need to follow EU rules. The European Court of Justice will also continue to have the final say over any legal disputes.

Why is the transition necessary?

The idea behind the transition period is to give some breathing space to allow new UK-EU negotiations to take place. Top of the to-do list will be a UK-EU free trade deal. This will be essential if the UK wants to be able to continue to trade with the EU with no tariffs, quotas or other barriers after the transition. Both sides will also need to decide how far the UK is allowed to move away from existing EU regulations (known as level playing field rules). However, a free trade deal will not eliminate all checks between the UK and the EU. So businesses will need to prepare.

As well as negotiating a UK-EU trade deal, the transition will also allow the UK to hold formal trade talks with other countries — such as the US and Australia. If completed and ready in time, these deals could also take effect at the end of the transition.

The pro-Brexit camp has long argued that allowing the UK freedom to set its own trade policy will benefit the economy — although critics say it’s more important to remain close to the EU.

Aside from trade, many other aspects of the future UK-EU relationship like aw enforcement, data sharing and security, aviation standards and safety, access to fishing waters, supplies of electricity and gas and many more basic needs will need to be decided.

What is happening now?

The UK and the EU will hold a third-round of talk before the crucial June summit, at which both sides must decide whether to prolong the transition period beyond December 31. Downing Street has always insisted the UK will not extend the deadline beyond the end of the year despite the coronavirus pandemic. Even after the latest round in April, EU and UK agree to the fact then the progress in discussions is disappointing or has seen just limited progress.

There are differences between the two sides on fisheries, competition rules, police co-operation, and how a deal would be enforced. The UK has rejected the suggestion it is not engaging in all negotiating areas, accusing the EU of making demands not required of its other trade partners.

Coronavirus and Brexit

The shadow cast by the coronavirus pandemic on post-Brexit talks is not insignificant. It effectively put a halt to proceedings of discussions in the initial stages. The first round of talks took place in early March, but subsequent face-to-face talks were suspended for six weeks. At the end of the second round of talks which took place by video links in April, the EU’s chief negotiator again expressed frustration at the lack of progress, effectively accusing the UK of dragging its feet. Negotiations resumed on May 11 with a further round scheduled for the week beginning June 1. Video connections are not seen by critics as a satisfactory substitute for face-to-face meetings, given the detail involved and the dozens of negotiators on each side. Some key figures, including Barnier, the UK’s chief negotiator David Frost, and most notably the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have been struck at various stages by COVID-19.

Post Brexit tie decisions are being slower due to the higher attention is given to the pandemic.

Scottish independence

Scottish independence is the political movement for Scotland to become a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom.

Following the 2011 Scottish Parliament election in which Scottish National Party won an outright majority of seats, an agreement was made between the Scottish and UK governments to hold the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Voters were asked: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” 44.7 per cent of voters answered “Yes” and 55.3 per cent answered “No”, with a record voter turnout of 85 per cent.

After Brexit, in some local polls conducted by various researchers, there is a narrow lead in favour of Scottish independence. The Panelbase poll, commissioned by the pro-independence blog ScotGoesPop, follows a poll by YouGov putting the yes vote at 51%. A Survation poll for the Sunday Times showed an even 50/50 split between yes and no. The Scottish National party are delighted with the shift in support, which increased pressure on the UK government to prove Scotland would benefit from Boris Johnson’s policies post-Brexit.

The chances of independence are yet to be seen forming a total post-Brexit political reformation.

Tweets and some Brexit talks

Before we enter into the future talks on Brexit along with its benefits and consequences, let us see the public and political reaction on the transition through some tweets.

These tweets are just a partial face of common people’s reaction on Brexit and their uncertainties about its aftereffects. So let us have a look upon that and justify their concerns.

The future

The continent is suddenly facing serious questions about its future role in world politics — and even in the trans-Atlantic relationship. Let us have a glance at the Brexit rules on the lives of common people.

Arrangements for Northern Ireland

Brexit means that the border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU) — one of the most politically sensitive frontiers in the world — now becomes the European Union’s only land border with the United Kingdom. Under the revised deal, Northern Ireland will leave the EU’s customs union with the rest of the UK, which wants to pursue an independent trade policy. But in practice, after the end of the transition period, it will follow EU customs rules and be subject to EU oversight.

The North will remain aligned with some aspects of the EU’s single market — and apply EU law on VAT (Value Added Tax) rules. Customs and regulatory checks will not be carried out on the island of Ireland, but at ports — effectively creating a new regulatory divide in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The revised agreement has similarities with an original EU proposal for a Northern Ireland-only backstop — which was rejected by Theresa May’s government — but is more complex, and has one key difference in that legally, Northern Ireland will be in the UK customs union. The accord deals with the issue of Northern Irish consent for these changes: Northern Ireland’s assembly will be able to decide on whether to keep the new arrangements — but only four years after the transition period.

How to deal with Irish friction?

From the words of the country’s central bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf, it is clear that Irish consumers, businesses and regulators must expect and plan for more friction in their trade with Britain because Brexit represents a substantive change for the economy. It is likely that any future economic relationship between the EU and the UK will have more hurdles than the status quo. Consumers, businesses and regulators should expect, and plan for, more frictions and divergence.

For EU citizens living in the UK

The Withdrawal Agreement outlines the future rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK, as well as Britons living on the continent.

Under the deal, EU nationals in the UK and Britons in the EU — plus family members — will retain residency and social security rights after Brexit. Freedom to move and live within the EU and UK will continue during a planned transition period. People will be allowed to stay when it ends and apply for permanent residency after five years.

They will have the same rights for working in the UK as they have now, whether they are employed or self-employed. The agreement enshrines the principle of equal treatment between UK and EU citizens resident in each other’s territories, in areas including employment, housing and education. Professional qualifications should continue to be recognised. EU citizens and their family members living in the UK by the end of the transition period should still be covered under social security rights.

But due to planning in reducing immigration, there is a chance of difficulty to gain a job and settle further in the UK by immigrants.

For UK citizens living in the EU

The agreement safeguards their existing rights of residency up until the end of the transition period, which runs until December 31, 2020. This is a reciprocal arrangement with the EU under the agreement. If they want to continue living in an EU country and benefiting from associated rights after this period (the transition period) they will have to apply for permanent residence status in your host country. To do that they will have had to have lived in the host country for five years by the end of the transition period. This also applies to family members, although there are rules as to who is a family member.

Rights are conditional on people remaining resident in their EU host country. The agreement also guarantees the same rights concerning employment, housing, education and social security. But some professional qualifications will no longer be recognised, and self-employed people no longer have the right to provide cross-border services.

Even though these many laws are specified, the further effects on the free movement of people across the EU and UK are remaining uncertain. This is what causes chaos among common people. Let us hope that the upcoming days of the transition period, amidst the coronavirus crisis will be fruitful and will come up with specific answers to all the questions.

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