What led to
Kerala’s Change in Weather Pattern
Global warming and damage to the environment
There has been a rapid change in the weather pattern of Kerala with untimely heavy rain and extremely hot summer. Within a span of just few years, Kerala is hit with the after effects of the global climate change and it is taking a heavy toll. Loss of life, agricultural goods and infrastructure that has value in crores, is setting Kerala back. The current events are the outcome of a mix of the said climate change, the large scale damage done to the environment in the micro level and unscientific, dangerous constructions that if had done properly, could have reduced the damage done to a certain extend. In this article, we’re gonna look at the factors that led to weather change, risk increasing factors and the potential damages.
The drastic change to the weather cycle
According to Indian Meteorological Department, during the last 43 years, the mean maximum temperature has risen about 0.8 0 Celsius, the minimum by 0.2 0 Celsius and the average by 0.6 0 Celsius over Kerala (27.3–27.9 0 Celsius) a clear upward trend in surface air temperature. Such warming was noticed in the entire Kerala coast.(2)
In the last four years, Kerala has witnessed only scanty rainfall in June and July but has faced extreme, unexpected rain fury of short durations in August, September and October.(3)(2) MG Manoj, head of the advanced centre for atmospheric radar research at the Cochin University of Science and Technology, said:
It seems the rain calendar of Kerala has changed altogether. Unseasonal rains have been wreaking havoc during the months between August and October in the last four years. Most of the worst-affected areas in the state this time have received more than 20 cm downfall in two-three hours.(3)
Weather patterns are already complicated but add the rise in sea temperature and consequent sea level rising, floods and landslide are not the only eminent disaster we’re facing. It’s highly likely that sea will engulf parts of Kochi, Alapuzha with predictions saying whole of Kuttanad will submerge. A disaster of that scale will highly affect Kerala’s long time growth, but unfortunately, we’re powerless in this scenario. It’s up to the entire world to counter global warming — just actions took by a single state or country isn’t going to do much change.
Thus most of the sudden changes to the weather pattern can be linked to the rapid increase in Earth’s surface temperature which leads to drastic changes in wind pattern, that leads of abnormal weather.
We reap what we sow !
Reclamation of paddy fields themselves cause great ecological damage, but paired with the likely hood that the area would now be flooded is high. I know a lot of incidents first hand, on how paddy field reclamation has caused frequent flooding and how further constructions on the plot has just worsen it. Kerala with the crazy amount of rivers it has, are already prone to flash floods. Flooding of rivers in monsoon season is not a new event, it’s common. But river encroachment makes it deadly(1). But at least actions are being taken about that. Lot’s of housing and shops are being build extremely close to rivers. But then again — it’s reported that water even reached higher elevation, usually considered safe to floods.
The Kerala State Disaster Management Plan (KSDMP) highlights that high density of population, narrow roads, high density of road network, as compared to the rest of the country, are factors that increase the vulnerability of the population to disasters(1).
Housings constructed dangerously close to slopes are screaming red flags, but it’s quite common in our state. It takes either damage to their property or a huge disaster to actually consider moving away from hilly areas prone to heavy rain falls. The Government or the public aren’t aware of this or are turning a blind eye to this risk. Quarries build close to residential areas are another red flag. They’re causing instability to the land around them, thus making the area prone to disaster. Then there are water reservoirs build upon hills or sides of mountain. A person with a bit of common sense knows that’s a calling for disaster. There has been a case like this that happened in the district of Kozhikode, few years ago, that resulted in death of two families.
Kerala’s Risks
The state’s high dependency of climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, fisheries, forest, water resource and health, make the state vulnerable to climate change. These sectors have immense contribution of evolving current socio- economic condition and unique development scenario of the state. Same time climate change impacts on these sectors might cause drastic change in the development process of the state.(2)
Most vulnerable sections in the state are the people who are exposed to climate change through their livelihood and same time that are less adaptive capacity to address consequences of climate change. Farmers, fishermen and tribal population are most vulnerable groups in the state to climate change whose livelihood exposed and less resilient to address the climate change. Farmers become most risky section in the state because small change in climate will drastically affect their live hood. Also fishermen in the state already under the risk of changing climate change through reduction fish production and their catch due to changing climate phenomena. The tribal in the state have least capacity to withstand from risk of climate change in the state.
Cultivated land is declining year after year across the state and production is stagnated mostly due to weather aberrations. A study conducted at International Rice Research Institute has revealed that for every 1°C rise in temperature, paddy yield declined by 10 per cent. In the projected climate change scenario, temperature rise is being experienced across the state. Thus an increase of temperature by 2°C by 2025 would affect paddy production in Kerala. With each degree rise in temperature, rice yield would be reduced by 6 %. The crop maturity period may also get reduced, which might affect the paddy productivity drastically. This would adversely affect the state where rice is the stable food of majority of the population. Widening in temperature range along with deforestation may be detrimental to thermo-sensitive crops like cardamom, coffee, tea, cocoa and black pepper cultivation across the high ranges of Kerala. Any sort of change in climate will have a detrimental effect on the cropping seasons and cropping pattern that has been traditionally practiced in the state (1).
Climate Change has huge implications on fisheries and coastal resources of the state. With the increasing temperature of the sea due to climate change, small fish and plants vanish first. The change in the availability of oxygen threatens almost all the species. Climate change has also caused lot of fish species endangered. Because of changes in the pattern of the waves and pattern of the wind, fishes are migrating to higher latitudes or are getting locally extinct. Combined with over fishing, unregulated fishing, habitat destruction and pollution, fish population is decreasing, which will affect the livelihood of many.(1)
Kerala is also dependent on transportation infrastructure — roads and bridges. Frequent flooding has lead to severe damage to lots of roads and bridges, which results in payments for repair. Damage done to educational infrastructure has also consequences. The loss of houses, work sheds, equipment, raw materials, finished products, coupled with a dip in the state’s tourist economy has affected the lives of thousands of urban and rural households engaged in handloom and coir(1).
Concluding
The current events are definitely alarming and should be taken more seriously than just a few government reports and sensational news reporting. Kerala should move towards a eco friendly and sustainable future. V Nandakumar, a scientist with the National Centre for Earth Science Studies, says:
Rains are beyond our control. But through scientific measures, we can lessen the damages caused by heavy downpour. In many places, human encroachments have played a key role in multiplying damages.(3)
As per environmental scientist VS Vijayan, most of the damages could have been minimal if the Gadgil Committee report was implemented . We have forgotten the damages done and life lost within few years. At this point of time, drastic measures should be taken, it’s necessary for our survival. I do hope the government, as well as individuals will respond to this extremely serious issue, in time.
Read More!
We are now on LinkedIn! Do follow us there!
Follow us on Medium for more for International events, news, MUN tips and tricks, and detailed analysis. Get in touch with us on Social media to stay in the loop -
Facebook| Instagram|Telegram Channel |YouTube|Twitter|LinkedIn.
We also invite guest writers to publish their material via this blog!
Interested in writing for MUNner’s Daily? Go right ahead and fill out this form. We will get back to you soon!
