Weather Science of Kerala Floods
The great floods of Kerala took away many lives and hit the economy and the lives of the common people the hardest; rendering them off their livelihood, taking away the lives of many.
When the great flood happened the first time, kindred hearts from around the world poured in their companionship in the form of help and support in-kind and cash.
The economy, people and most importantly the state all together was recovering from the major disaster when the floods hit the terrains of Kerala for the second time, around the same time as the last.
With death toll of 483, the flood of 2018 had a devastating loss of ₹400 billion .
The state government won appreciation for the well management of the crisis. We, however, aim to analyse the climatic reasons of the great floods recorded in the state after the havoc of 1924.
Kerala received heavy monsoon rainfall, which was about 116% more than the usual rain fall in Kerala, on the mid-evening of 8 August, resulting in dams filling to their maximum capacities; in the first 48 hours of rainfall the state received 310 mm (12 in) of rain. Almost all dams had been opened since the water level had risen close to overflow level due to heavy rainfall, flooding local low-lying areas. For the first time in the state’s history, 35 of its 54 dams had been opened. The deluge has been considered an impact of the global warming- Wikipedia
Though the cause cannot be attributed to any one climatic change, global warming has played a major role in it nonetheless.
Kerala experienced an abnormally high rainfall from 1 June 2018 to 19 August 2018. This resulted in severe flooding in 13 out of 14 districts in the State. As per IMD data, Kerala received 2346.6 mm of rainfall from 1 June 2018 to 19 August 2018 in contrast to an expected 1649.5 mm of rainfall. This rainfall was about 42% above the normal. Further, the rainfall over Kerala during June, July and 1st to 19th of August was 15%, 18% and 164% respectively, above normal.- Report by the Government of India
We are posed with a question here:
Is climate change making floods an annual affair in Kerala?
The answer is not simple but could be a combination of factors that came together.
A low-pressure area developed over the Bay of Bengal was the causation of heavy rains. The mood, character and form of rains have changed in the last two years. Across the state, landslides are happening one after another, causing death and destruction in their wake.
Unpredictability looms large
“The monsoon over Kerala has completely lost its traditional character. A meteorological unpredictability is looming large over the entire south India and it is more visible in Kerala and environmental hotspots such as the Nilgiris and Kodagu. Global warming is the main culprit, and in all likelihood, the floods will be followed by a severe drought”, points out Gopakumar Cholayil, consultant climatologist and research officer at the Academy of Climate Change Education and Research, Kerala Agriculture University.
A wide segment of experts and opinion makers believe deforestation and change in land use patterns are the reasons for the devastating floods.
Climate change, change in land use patterns which are highly unscientific along with population pressure has landed God’s Own Country in this quagmire.
We cannot scapegoat any of these factors singularly, but it is, the lack of climatic education and awareness and most importantly unwillingness to act upon, in essence that has been the causation of these issues.
Parallels In Other Parts of the World
It’s not just Kerala that is facing the perils of climate change. Floods of same scale has occurred in several parts of India and the southern and eastern China, to name a few.
The heaviest average rainfall lashed a swathe of southern and eastern China brought torrential rain and floods, destroying houses, damaging crops and forcing the evacuation of nearly 80,000 people.
Where to from here?
We no longer can deny that climate change isn’t real and that it’s a conspiracy. The world has join hands together to face this impending disaster that has the potential to destroy the entire world.
We are to move from here, to a place and state which is woke, equipped and working towards protecting mother nature.
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