Last Words for June 4
Welcome to The Finals: Three Things I’ll Be Looking For in Game 1
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In just a few hours, the NBA Finals will officially kick off at the Roaracle. Before that though, I want to highlight the three things that I will be looking for both in Game One and as the series progresses. There are plot points all over this matchup, with superstars facing off, key injuries impacting both teams, and two franchises with long championship droughts.
The Warriors are the proverbial juggernaughts, winners of 67 regular season games, and holding a rabid fanbase captive with dominant performances both on the road and at home. The Cavaliers are the franchise rejuvenated by the return of their favorite son; the four-time MVP returning to take his home state to a level of greatness that has been absent, replaced by ever-growing pressure to win.
For the Warriors, this Finals stage is the arrival of the longshots who have become the favorites, while for LeBron and his team, he is, unusually for him, in the underdog role, even though he is the most physically imposing player in the game today.
At the broadest level, I think that the defining characteristic of this series is going to be isolation versus total team effort. For Golden State, they combine a team approach with a superstar who is as electric as they come. Even though Curry is the MVP and the primary scoring option, the team operates in an egalitarian system where everyone has a role and an impact to make on the court, or in the locker room. On the other hand, Cleveland is very much a team dominated by its stars. When Kyrie Irving is healthy, the dynamic is very dueling-banjoes esque where he and LeBron take turns dictating the Cavs’ attack.
In the playoffs, there is also a difference between both teams. The Warriors have seen statistical increases in most numbers except for rebounding. However, the Cavaliers have seen drops in every category except for turnovers where they have seen improvement and rebounding.
The chart above shows one more thing clearly. In this series, Cleveland’s strength as a team (other than LeBron) will have to be taking care of the ball and rebounding. Golden State loves to get out in transition where they can attack the basket or spot up for open threes. By getting both offensive and defensive rebounds, the Cavs can get extra possessions, preventing easy baskets on the other end, while by taking care of the ball and by valuing each possession, they can also prevent transition play, and keep the pace more to their liking.
For this series, I think that there are three factors that will determine the outcome and swing the games to one team or another.
I. The MVP
When people think of Steph Curry, often they think of him as a great shooter and a great scorer. Sometimes they take the time to recognize his playmaking, his toughness, or his defensive intelligence. However, on a team with no Finals experience, I think that his greatest asset to the Warriors will be his experience in big moments.
In 2008, Curry led his Davidson Wildcats on a Cinderella run to the Elite 8. What impressed me then was his constant, unwavering confidence in himself and his teammates, even though he was no more experienced than anyone in the locker room.
Even though some in the media perceive Cleveland to be the underdog, I think that it is very hard for a LeBron James led team to be the underdog in this, or any, series, because of his Finals experience. If that is right, the assured demeanor that I saw then in Stephen Curry needs to be present in order for Golden State to truly compete and take this title.
Curry can, and most likely will, score, distribute, and defend. However, it will be his will and confidence that will elevate the Warriors this time.
II. Best in the World
For the Cavaliers, history is staring at their current position, in the NBA Finals with the opportunity to take a championship and break more than fifty (!) years of futility and close calls. In order for that to even be possible, LeBron is going to have to be everything he was against Atlanta.
That will be a tall task, because like the San Antonio Spurs of 2014, Golden State seems to be best equipped to stop individual players like a scoring-focused LeBron. This year, LeBron has been particularly awful outside of the paint. On paper, the strategy seems apparent. Golden State needs to dare LeBron to shoot perimeter shots while preventing his playmaking gifts that rival greats like Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson.
If Cleveland is to be put in a position to win, LeBron will have to use Golden State’s strategy against them. LeBron is the most cerebral player in the game, so his individual adjustments against a Golden State defense that will be designed to stop him will dictate everything around him.
III. The Circles of Influence
Finally, the circles of influence will most clearly impact the end result of which team wins and which one does not. How will players such as Harrison Barnes, Iman Shumpert, Draymond Green, Tristan Thompson, Klay Thompson, and Kyrie Iving, impact both teams? Those six players to me will be the difference. Who gets corralled and who runs wild will push one team over the top.
What’s At Stake?
Ultimately, when all is said and done, I think that the Golden State Warriors will win this series in 7 games. I think that Klay Thompson’s concussion situation will only get better, whereas Kyrie Irving’s injury, while safe to play on, seems more dicey to me. Bogut and Mozgov will ultimately cancel each other out, but matchup wise, I think that guarding Curry for Cleveland and guarding James for the Warriors will decide the outcome, and I think that while stopping or slowing down James is more difficult, the number of options to throw at James will work better for Golden State, while the decisions that Cleveland will have to make for Curry could have negative ripple effects all across their lineup.
It is for those reasons that I think that the Golden State Warriors will win this series in 7 games. It won’t be easy, and (hopefully) it might come down to the last couple of minutes, but in a close game, I trust Golden State’s defense and three-point shooting more than Cleveland’s offensive and defensive schemes.
