Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk, and the problem with hype
How do you define success when your name is Christopher Nolan?
Dunkirk has a lot of momentum going into its opening weekend. The combination of Nolan’s brand, great reviews, and Harry Styles star power is hard to beat. But the film is not a pre-ordained box office hit for a rather simple reason: World War II movies are not as popular as you think.
The last time that we had a real smash hit war movie was the strange beast that is Inglorious Basterds ($321m in 2009). The other incontestable biggies in the subgenre are Saving Private Ryan ($481m in 1998), Pearl Harbor ($449m in 2001) and perhaps Schindler’s List ($321 in 1993). Does Captain America: The First Avenger count ($370m)?
The vast majority of World War II tales that do well are still relatively modest earners. Think Unbroken ($163m), Fury ($211m), Hacksaw Ridge ($175m), and The Imitation Game ($233m). All those films earned enough for their budgets, but a $160–230m total would be far too low for a movie of this size.
Does that mean Dunkirk is doomed? Hardly. However, this data does bring into question how we must redefine success for a fella like Nolan in this situation.
Let’s look at the math.
I don’t think that Dunkirk cost as much as Interstellar ($165m) or Inception ($160m). If it came in at a (relatively) slim $100 million dollars, the studio would need $300 million worldwide for it to count as a true, in-the-black hit. Three hundred million dollars doesn’t sound like a hurdle too high for Nolan — he’s got two billion dollar films under his belt — but even that “reasonable” total it would be highly impressive for the sub-genre.
Think about this: if Dunkirk makes $482m it would the highest grossing WWII film of all time, not adjusted for inflation. Even with almost $200m (!) fewer dollars than Interstellar, it would be a record-breaker.
It’s worth noting that we walked the unfair expectations tightrope with Interstellar. The film performed well, but below some people’s expectations. Despite the fact that the film was nearly three hours long, filled with hard sci-fi mumbo jumbo, and had mixed-positive reviews, some were surprised it wasn’t more of an event. Ultimately, it was embraced enough that Nolan walked away relatively unscathed. There weren’t too many, eye-roll worthy “Has Nolan lost his magic?” think pieces.
Unfortunately, with Dunkirk it’s hard to imagine what excuse people will give if it merely does “okay” like the average war movie. It’s less than two hours long and it’s a relatively easy concept to sell. Plus Harry Styles!
Reviews say the film is almost dialogue free, which is a bold choice. There’s a chance that audiences won’t connect to a film without a traditional, dialogue-driven narrative. Bad audience polling would be a simple excuse in the case of a soft box office grosses. Critics and audiences don’t always meet eye-to-eye. But if the Cinemascore comes in with an A/B grade, then we need to treat Nolan fairly. There’s the distinct possibility that not many people want to see a WWII movie, no matter who directs it, even if some people are very excited by the project in Nolan’s hands.
Ultimately, the reason Nolan inspires such confidence is because of Inception. Nolan’s Batman films made him a household name and solidified his brand; Inception provided once in a lifetime success. The visionary film still stands as one of the most profitable original films of all time ($825m), and we should never forget that it was nominated for Best Picture. It’s up there with The Matrix, Jurassic Park, and Star Wars as far as iconic science fiction goes. Yeah, it’s always going to be unfair to compare any Nolan film to his most stunning victory.
And that’s the rub. We can’t simultaneously praise Nolan’s daring original filmmaking and require that he always succeed. If that were the case, he wouldn’t be that daring, I suppose. No one shoots 100% from the 3-point line. Uncontested lay-ups are the only sure thing.
I’d rather Christophe Nolan stay daring. If that means Dunkirk makes a “disappointing” $300 million dollars because he wanted to artistically revolutionize a modestly profitable sub-genre, so be it. I’m not predicting that by any means, but I’m trying to re-frame my hype in hopes that other people can too.
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