Outsized returns: Betting against the crowd
Increasingly, we’re inundated with articles and research about the ‘best tech’ of the previous year, as well as prophecies about prospective ‘shining stars’. At Naspers, we keep a close eye on the technology landscape by identifying trends and evaluating how disruptive tech might evolve to impact businesses.
We recently set out to test our view on the next big tech trends against the view of external experts. To determine the latter, we performed a count of technology references from blue-chip tech prediction pieces. Here’s an overview of our findings.
The ones we expected
I’m sure it will come as no surprise that the majority of publications from the beginning of the year focused on the obvious candidates: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT) and Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality, wrapped into a common theme of ‘disruption’. Some months into the year, the aforementioned trends have been covered in great detail.
The surprises — Voice and blockchain tied
I found it fascinating that voice was practically tied with blockchain for the #2 spot in terms of references. Perhaps the remainder of 2018 will be the time when voice recognition / tech finally comes to fruition. The prospective launch of Google’s Duplex voice assistant is a big step in this direction — whether it lives up to the hype is something we need to wait to see.
Tech giants gain exponentially when paradigm shifts happen, be it Microsoft from the desktop computer or Apple from mobile devices. It wouldn’t surprise me if voice is the basis of the next shift as speech-to-text surpasses human transcription. The winner in this battle will have a platform which could disrupt the chat ecosystem, in the short term at least.
The surprises — in-email shopping, BIoT and MSOC
It was also interesting to note that there were some nascent, other arguably straightforward, but all ingenious ideas that few dared to call out as becoming mainstream in 2018, ranging from in-email shopping to exponential trends such as IoT transforming to BIoT (Blockchain application to the Internet of Things) and Massive Simultaneous Online Communities (MSOC).
MSOC for instance goes beyond live streaming and chat groups, instead, offering an experience that has the potential to catalyse advances across a range of technologies, from social to AR/VR.
What now?
The greatest potential often comes from ideas that few recognize, or at the very least, that polarize opinion. We form a view on which technologies we think will really work and we look for excellent people who can run with them — we build strong expertise in the areas where we invest.
So, while further building capabilities in areas like Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain, at the same time, we track technologies that are not yet mainstream and invest at the right time, with the right partner. It’s part of the thrill and it’s certainly what keeps us on our toes.
