France’s populist threat is far from over
Only three months have passed since he won the largest parliamentary majority in modern French political history, and already Emmanuel Macron’s polling numbers are in vertiginous decline. An IFOP survey published yesterday indicated 55 % of French voters disapprove of the job the President is doing, while 43% approve. Mr Macron’s approval rating has dropped 20 points since he first took office, an early erosion in support which is virtually unprecedented under the Fifth Republic.
Some of the early disenchantment will come as little surprise to political observers. While Mr Macron ran on an explicitly centrist platform during the election campaign, many of the policies he is seeking to implement are the hallmarks of a centre-right Government.
In order to align France’s budget deficit with the EU spending limit of 3% of GDP, the Macron administration is planning a raft of spending cuts and supply-side measures designed to boost government revenues and incentivise private investment. These include plans to boost labour market flexibility, lower marginal tax rates for high earners and higher taxes on pensioners.
There is a risk that these measures will not be popular with less wealthy voters. Mr Macron is also making some popular concessions to the wider electorate, such as removing the much-maligned ‘habitation tax’ for four in five French people. But he appears to be largely betting that the expected results of his pro-business reforms, such as a growing economy, higher productivity and wages, will be enough to win over an electorate which has grown weary of economic sclerosis.
Greater economic prosperity does not always beget political rationality. Last year’s votes for Brexit and Trump, which were widely seen as rejections of the political establishment, happened counter-cyclically to positive economic conditions in which gross domestic product and employment numbers were rising fast. Mr Macron could face a similar challenge to his political programme in 2022, and it could come from a number of camps.
One possible challenge could come from the right. Marine Le Pen suffered a larger than expected defeat at the ballot box, winning just over a third of the vote and coming first in just two out of France’s 107 departments.
But the Le Pen brand has its roots in the Holocaust denialism of her father, former Front National leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. Polls have consistently suggested that the party’s manifesto could be more popular with the public than its leader is. For example, a majority of French people have consistently been shown to back a more hawkish policy stance on immigration, the integration of religious minorities, and trade.
This is a gap which the new Les Republicains (LR) party is likely to seek to exploit. The centre-right party suffered a heavy defeat at the last elections, with some of its most prominent centrist members defecting to Mr Macron’s cabinet, and other moderates forming a largely pro-Macron splinter-group called Les Constructifs.
But what remains of the original LR party is still the second-largest political grouping in the French parliament, and is likely to tack to the right after the defection of its more moderate MPs. Laurent Wauqiez, a right-wing member of parliament and current favourite to lead the party, has previously backed cutting migration numbers, a more statist trade policy, and called for a more hard-line approach to assimilating ethnic and religious minorities in France.
A number of prominent Front National figures have advocated forming a pact with the new LR party in recent weeks, including Robert Ménard, the influential Mayor of Béziers. While Mr Wauqiez has rebuffed the offer, their new-found enthusiasm for a deal suggests his party’s potential for appealing to the extreme-right as well as traditional conservative voters.
The other serious Macron challenge could come from the left. Firebrand socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon performed better than expected in the first round of the presidential election, taking nearly 20% of the vote as the more moderate Parti Socialiste (PS) imploded. Mr Mélenchon advocates a radical political programme which includes reducing the 35-hour working week to 32 hours, lowering the pensions age to 60 and withdrawing France from NATO.
While Mr Mélenchon drew less former PS voters to his own party than Mr Macron did in the first round, they may tack to his party in future if they lose heart with the President’s pro-business agenda. It is too early to say how significant this alignment could be, but Mr Macron’s falling poll numbers suggest it is already on the way.
A number of things are in Mr Macron’s favour. By commanding a large majority in Parliament, he has the necessary support to implement his programme in full and deliver vital reforms which could boost competitiveness and transform the economy. The uncertainty emanating from the Brexit vote will also increase Paris’s standing as an investment destination among large European economies.
But it is also worth remembering that before the election, not all voters were in love with Mr Macron. Nearly half of those who cast their ballots for him in the second round said they were voting to keep out the hard-line Marine Le Pen, while only 39 per cent said they wanted him to have a parliamentary majority.
In the run-up to the election, he was often ahead in the polls, but his public support was also the softest among leading candidates. This suggests that for many people, a vote for Mr Macron may have been both tactical and conditional, rather than a full-throated vote of confidence in his vision for France.
GDP is a poor measure of happiness. Mr Macron’s reforms may prove to be a shot in the arm for the French economy, but they will also create new losers in society. Others may feel they are not much better off than they were, and choose to express their grievances at a later ballot box fixture.
If he wishes to win a second term, Mr Macron must have answers to the populists on all sides who are waiting to exploit these grievances for political expediency, and have real potential to destroy his movement. Real economic progress is only half the battle won. Perception matters even more.
