Fourth Democratic Debate May See Increased Friendly Fire
More clashing to come as campaigns respond to changes in the polls.
For the second time in a week, presidential candidates will descend upon South Carolina for a debate. This time it is the Democrats, who will be taking the stage at the Gaillard Center in Charleston on Sunday for their fourth debate. Expect at least two stark contrasts from Thursday’s Republican debate: more substance and fewer people. The stakes are as high as ever, though, especially for frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
Unlike her counterpart Donald Trump, who is at the front of the Republican pack, Clinton’s national and Iowa leads have only dropped. According to a New York Times/CBS News Poll released on Tuesday, Clinton is only ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 7 percentage points among primary voters — 48–41. She had been up 52–32 in December. In Iowa, home of the first caucuses in the country, a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll has her leading Sanders by just two points among “likely Democratic caucusgoers”— 42–40 — which is within the poll’s margin of error.
Sanders is proving that he is a legitimate candidate who is within striking distance, so Clinton has gone on the attack. Last week, her campaign released an implicitly negative ad during which it is implied that she is the only one who can beat the Republican nominee.
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On The Rachel Maddow Show this week, Clinton had to defend her campaign’s attack on the senator and his campaign.
For his part, Sanders has launched a series of ads highlighting the differences between his policies and those of Clinton and the Republican field. Among them is an ad in which he explains what his Wall St. plan would do. Clinton’s campaign has called it “an attack ad,” according to Maddow, a statement the former Secretary of State will have to defend during the debate.
There is sure to be more bickering between the two than in previous debates — over policy and, quite possibly, over name calling. Clinton will probably go after Sanders on guns and how much money his policies will cost, both of which fit under the umbrella theme — and new narrative — of being the candidate who can beat Republicans, which has, In essence, replaced her original message because of Sanders’ serious challenge from the left.
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Sanders will, almost certainly, go after Clinton for her connections to Wall St., which are also highlighted in the ad. He will embrace his connections to real people, and what he will do to help the workers in this country, not only because the latter has been a theme of his campaign, but because his connections and authenticity are key reasons to his success. Voters are craving those characteristics — probably because they are fed up with Washington’s gridlock and polticians who have given into corportations and the wealthy — along with personality.
As long as he continues to do what he has done, he will at least remain where he is in the polls. It would be great if he gave more policy specifics, but that is an unlikely move during a time in which he is surging.
Some would say that a democratic socialist, who has previously been independent, does not have a serious chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Others would disagree, however, because of his standing in the polls and because of his ability to energize voters with his message. If he has a strong performance in the final Democratic debate before the Iowa caucuses, held on Feb. 1, he could pull out a victory. He will likely win in New Hampshire, and the momentum from the two could push him forward to a successful Nevada caucus on Feb. 20 and Super Tuesday on March 1. (He is less likely to win the South Carolina primary, but if he has the momentum that could change.)
The third candidate on the stage will be former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. He will go into the debate with his usual built-in advantage of being the only chief executive of a state, but he is too far down in the polls for it to matter.
The debate will air on NBC at 6 p.m. P.S.T.
Reach News Editor Max Schwartz here; follow him on Twitter here.
