VS.
What to Watch For
Pac-12 conference play kicks off against Stanford
After two 50-plus point performances, 1246 total yards of offense and a defense that held opponents to a mere 13 points, the easy match-ups and blowouts might be a thing of the past as USC will try to hold down the fort Saturday when Stanford comes to town.
Pac-12 play begins early for the Trojans this year, but given the ease by which they were able to dominate their first two Sun Belt opponents, it feels like a legitimate opponent is overdue.
Here’s what to watch for ahead of this week’s duel:
Trap Game Potential?
As much as the two weeks helped push USC a couple spots up the AP Poll, they also serve to expose some of Stanford’s deficiencies.
The Cardinal failed to get any semblance of an offensive game going against Northwestern in the opener, which resulted in an embarrassing early-morning loss that immediately put a damper on their potential. Though they took care of also-ran Central Florida last week, the players from Palo Alto have looked anything but outstanding.
Aside from only mustering the ability to put six points on the board against Northwestern, Stanford allowed the Wildcats to have 225 yards on the ground and 330 yards of total offense. Given that Northwestern was the 107th-ranked offense in FBS last year (71st this year), that is not a promising sign for the state of Stanford’s defense.
What does that mean for Saturday’s game? It means USC is favored by more than a touchdown, and the general sense is that the Trojans should easily handle their first conference opponent. If history has anything to say about this matchup, however, it will be a close one. Since 2010, every one of the five times these teams have been pegged against one another has resulted in a final score difference of no more than eight points.
Has this suddenly turned into a trap game for the Trojans?
“Every game takes on its own personality,” said Coach Steve Sarkisian this week. “Last year against Stanford, we really only had two drives in the first half — it just depends on number of plays, three-and-outs, third-down conversions, the flow of the game.”
The flow of the game. That will be the determining factor and the telling sign of whether the Trojans are trapped inside Stanford’s slow and methodical tempo, or whether they’ve established their own and taken care of the team that looks their inferior through two weeks.
READ MORE: USC Beats Idaho 59–9 Behind JuJu Smith-Schuster’s Career Day
Monitoring McCaffrey
The sample size is small, but a glance at the Cardinal’s offensive distribution exhibits a telling trend. RB Christian McCaffrey is the key cog on this team that’s amassing most of the carries and yardage through two games, and Coach Steve Sarkisian knows who the Trojans have to be glued on come game time.
“He’s a really versatile back. He’s a kick returner, he’s a punt returner, he’s their leading rusher and their leading receiver,” pointed out Sarkisian after Wednesday’s practice. “He’s going to get fly sweeps, he’s going to get wildcat stuff, so he kinda starts their engine.”
Having the reputation of an extremely-conservative offense, McCaffrey is Stanford’s against-the-grain producer — the offensive spark that they desperately need to succeed after standout WR Ty Montgomery departed last year.
From the linemen, to the linebackers, to even the secondary, eyes and hands will be glued on to McCaffrey, and given how representative and essential he is to the Cardinal’s offense, stopping his production will go a long way toward clinching a victory.
5th-Year Seniors Under Center
Stanford’s Kevin Hogan and USC’s Cody Kessler is a battle of two long-tenured quarterbacks looking to bring their programs another successful season at the helm.
Despite a less-than-mediocre performance against Northwestern, Hogan had his career-high in yards against UCF last week (341 yards.) The change from Week 1 to Week 2 shows a glimpse of how his potential threat as a playmaker lies in the volatility of his play.
“When he can get going he just starts to find his rhythm,” Sarkisian said of Hogan, also pointing out Hogan’s impressive finish to last season.“We need to be sticky in the back end … Get him and keep him as uncomfortable as we can.”
Hogan has spread the ball around 10 receivers thus far, relying on McCaffrey for shorter throws, while targeting wideouts Bryan Love and Michael Rector as deep threats. Those deep threats are the ones Sark says they must eliminate to keep the fifth-year senior from finding a groove.
Cody Kessler also comes into this game boasting a career-high in his last outing (410 yards.) The only sticking point with Kessler’s efficiency is that he has failed to replicate it against his top opponents. Last year against Stanford he only threw for 135 yards and one touchdown; this year, if Kessler wants to show he can sling it around against the best competition, it begins with doing so against the physical Cardinal defense.
The Trouble with the Trenches
Like it almost always does with these two teams, the game will largely be decided between the front-7. After last year’s blueprint of a 13–10 deadlock, one certainly expects more scoring, but a tough game could be in the works as Stanford brings a physical defensive line to the Coliseum, hoping to both pressure Kessler and stop the abundance of running backs USC has.
After the five sacks in the first half against Arkansas St. pass-protection has been under the magnifying glass, and against an always-physical Stanford line, USC’s deficiencies could be furthermore exposed. The Cardinal lost three senior defensive lineman from last season, and are dealing with various injuries there as well having lost starter Harrison Phillips and backup Nate Lohn to injury. They have just two sacks on the season thus far, but there’s no reason to believe that despite their lack of depth, they won’t be ready to increase that number in their most competitive game yet.
However, given Stanford’s state at the D-Line, USC’s seemingly experienced offensive line would appear to be set up to do well in this game, though after the questions that riddled them — and Kessler — in the first game, how much pressure and QB hits Stanford can achieve against them will be something to keep an eye on.
On the other side of the line, the Trojans’ defensive line has had a quietly impressive two games. After only surrendering 71 rushing yards to Idaho, the one blemish on their resume is that through two games, they only have two sacks. Lineman Greg Townsend Jr. says its more a product of the opponent that their pass rush has not produced those coveted backfield tackles.
“I think it’s that the teams that we play get the ball out quick,” he said of the team’s first two opponents. “We just gotta keep working, keep going and trying to get there to the quarterback.”
Defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox echoed what Townsend said, while also pointing out that they have to “disguise some things” so that they can truly suffocate the Stanford offense.
Townsend spoke for the defense as a whole, who were berated with the “Stanford is tough” narrative throughout the week, by saying they have some toughness of their own.
“We’re a physical team too, we go hard against our ones and we let iron sharpen iron. We go hard against each other.”
One thing is certain: Despite their early dominance and Stanford’s early stumbles, Saturday will undoubtedly bring the toughest game for the Trojans so far, in more ways than one.
PODCAST: USC vs. Stanford talk, predictions and a look at USC’s women’s soccer squad and women’s volleyball team:
You can reach Sports Editor Paolo Uggetti here, or follow him on Twitter@PaoloUggetti
