What To Watch For
USC heads to Autzen Stadium for a pivotal matchup against the Oregon Ducks.
Two 7–3 (5–2) teams fighting for their Pac-12 lives take the field on Saturday in Eugene, as the Trojans travel north to battle the Ducks. Both teams are riding high coming off four-game win streaks, including Oregon’s huge victory over Stanford in Palo Alto.
USC controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South, while Oregon is hanging on by a thread, and will be eliminated from Pac-12 Championship contention with a loss.
Both teams have been attacked by the injury bug this season, with Oregon having lost senior receiver Byron Marshall early in the year, as well as tight end Pharaoh Brown and running back Thomas Tyner before the season started.
In such a pivotal, late-season game, here are three things to watch for:
Oregon’s Run Game vs. USC’s Run Defense
Oregon boasts the top scoring offense in the conference, led by the best rushing attack, averaging 297 yards per game. Obviously the Oregon run game is led by “Rolls” Royce Freeman, who is averaging almost 140 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry, and has 12 touchdowns on the year.
Freeman is a workhorse for the Ducks, getting 21 carries per game, and is the driving force behind the Oregon rushing attack. Taj Griffin and Kani Benoit are two other Oregon backs helping to ease the load, but the focus of the USC defense will be on Freeman.
While the Trojans aren’t exactly thought of as a defensive powerhouse, they’ve put up a quietly successful season on that side of the ball. The Trojans are third in the conference in scoring defense and allow the fewest rushing yards per game with 118.
The defensive line is humming, totaling 20 sacks over the last five games, and the group has really come into their own now that they’re fully healthy. But the focus will be on the Trojan linebackers, specifically Uchenna Nwosu, after losing linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson to season-ending injuries this past week.
Whoever can win the battle up front should have a huge edge in the game Saturday.
Putting Pressure on Vernon Adams
Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams struggled early in the season while dealing with a thumb injury, but after returning healthy, he’s been the quarterback Ducks coaches hoped they would get.
Over his last four games, Adams has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,092 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. But while Adams has been much more efficient recently, he has struggled a bit when moved off his spot. If the Delvon Simmons, Claude Pelon, and the Trojan defensive line can put pressure on Adams up the middle, he won’t be able to step up in the pocket and could struggle.
The USC pass defense has been remarkably average this season, allowing 251 yards per game, good for seventh in the Pac-12. Adoree Jackson is expected to take more reps in offense this week after playing primarily defense against Colorado, so it will be interesting to see how the secondary fares.
If the defensive line is able to get pressure when just rushing four however, the pressure moves from the USC secondary, to Vernon Adams and his ability to make plays outside of the pocket.
Another Slow Start?
USC has trailed after the first quarter in five straight games, and while they’ve pulled out wins in the last four, going down early to Oregon is a dangerous game to play.
The Ducks are known for playing and scoring quickly, so going down by multiple scores early puts an already depleted defense in a bigger hole. Controlling the ball will be key for the Trojans, as they were unable to get their run game going against a Colorado rush defense ranked 10th in the Pac-12.
Ronald Jones II had his breakout game against Arizona two weeks ago, but was unable to get going last week against the Buffaloes. If Jones and Justin Davis can get the ground game going against a very average Oregon rush defense, they should be able to keep their offense on the field, and Oregon’s explosive group off it.
The Trojans need to simultaneously start quickly, while maintaining ball control and allowing their defense to rest against the speedy Oregon offense.
USC Special Teams
Starting kicker Alex Wood doubtful to play on Saturday with a concussion, and so it appears redshirt sophomore Matt Boermeester will take over all of the kicking duties for the Trojans.
Boermeester is a lefty who arguably has better range than Wood, but he’s had some accuracy struggles so far in his career. While this might not make or break the game, it will be interesting to see how much Clay Helton decides to use Boermeester, especially late in the game.
It’s going to be a close, high-scoring affair in Eugene, with both teams throwing the kitchen sink at each other, their respective seasons on the line. It will be mostly on the defense if USC wants to pull the upset, but defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox’s has plenty of experience against Oregon, facing them back in his Boise State and Washington days, so he should have a game plan in place to slow them down.
Prediction
Expect a close game in the Autzen Zoo, but USC will come out on top 38–34, keeping their Pac-12 Championship hopes alive.
