Nigeria 2069: Free lunch, Sabotage and Debt by a Thousand Cuts.
This is the 2nd article in this series on a promising Nigerian future in 50 years: Nigeria 2069. It begins in 2019 as we all participate in the oncoming elections.
You can read other articles in this series: Part 1,and Part 3.
Keywords: Foreign Policy, Trade, Debt and finished goods.
For example, much of Nigeria is thriving, with many individuals enjoying the fruits of a resurgent economy. Yet 87 million Nigerians live on less than $1.90 a day — making it home to more very poor people than any other nation in the world,
Africa is home to majority of the world’s fragile states and a quarter of the world’s displaced people.’ More important, she noted that ‘between now and 2035, African nations will have to create 18 million new jobs every year just to keep pace with the rapidly growing population. That’s almost 50,000 new jobs every single day, simply to maintain employment at its current level.’
The British Prime Minister, Theresa May
When I was a boy, I read a book called Buy the Future by Dr. Mensa Otabil.
It was centered on the biblical story of Esau and Jacob. Esau and Jacob were twin sons of Isaac the son of Abraham. Esau was the first child and was expected to receive the ‘blessing of the birthright’ from his father. Esau was a hunter.
One day Esau came from an unsuccessful hunt and was hungry. Jacob offered to give Esau a bowl of stew in exchange for his birthright (and the firstborn blessing) and Esau agreed.
When his father was blind and close to death, he asked Esau to prepare a fine meal of meat for him to eat, and then he will bless him. Overhearing this, Jacob and his mother conspired together and ‘cheated’ Esau out of the firstborn blessing. When Esau found out, it was too late.
The blessing was lost.
Why did Esau Fail?
- He did not value what he had i.e. the first born blessing
- He was unprepared and had no reservoir of meat. Each time Esau went to hunt he depleted the population of game available for future hunts. Jacob on the other hand, took a male and female goat and created a flock, behind his house
Why does Nigeria fail?
Amidst several factors, we currently fail as a Nation because we do not value the resources and human capital we have and don’t prepare for the future.
We have sold over $1tn worth of crude oil but 60 years later still import refined products, produced from crude oil. Between 2013 and 2017, $36.37 billion was spent by Nigeria on import of petroleum products
ENTER BRITAIN
The prime minister of Britain made the speech above at South Africa, prior to a trip to Nigeria.
Question 1: If we are so poor and hopeless, why did she come?
While in Nigeria, The British Prime Minister signed two agreements with the President of Nigeria on Defense, and Economic Cooperation. This isn’t the first of such agreements signed between both countries.
In 1957, Nigeria still under colonial rule setup a Federal Defense Council (FDC) chaired by the British Governor General.
To speed up the Nigerianisation of the military, the FDC decided on a quota system for recruitment: 50% from the North, 25% from the East and 25% from the West.
This sowed the seeds of ethnic mistrust, which we still experience today.
For the purpose of the Cold War, Britain proposed a defense pact with Nigeria, which was later abrogated.
“To what extent have been the impact of many defense cooperation agreements and particularly the economic cooperation agreements? There is no defense agreement that does not include training of Nigerian soldiers and other relevant paramilitary agencies. When will the trainees graduate from the school of training?”
“The visit has a strategic character and therefore of significance is the three countries visited.
From the perspective of global politics, the visit falls under the new ‘Scramble for Africa’ in which the old conception of colonization is being replaced by a soft power approach. Every power wants to dialogue with the whole of Africa on the basis of one country versus the 54-Member States of the African Union. And true enough, the new colonization is largely driven by globalization, especially by Technology. France is leading the world in the game of ‘one country versus the whole of Africa,’ even though the French started with Francophone Africa.”
“Africa has been and still remains the woman every man wants to marry because of resource even though Nigeria’s foreign policy as formulated by Dr. Okoi Arikpo, Minster of External Affairs under General Yakubu Gowon, is that Africa must not be allowed to be simply used as a source of raw materials for the development of Europe”
“Second, the visit is significant from the perspective of Brexit agenda. Britain wants to withdraw its membership of the European Union.
The cardinal purpose of Theresa May’s visit is not simply to trade, but particularly to prevent the use of EU-Africa understanding to the detriment of British interests, notably in Anglophone Africa. Nigeria, for instance, is yet to sign the Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union for reasons of fear that the Nigerian soil will become a dumping ground for unwanted goods.
Britain cannot but want to take advantage of the vacuum to be created to also become a new asset for Africa. In fact, even in the three countries visited, the influence of China is as strong as that of Britain. Better understanding with Nigeria may permanently prevent Nigeria from signing the Economic Partnership Agreement.”
Bola Akinterinwa, former Director General of Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA)
Question 2: In light of the two statements by the British Prime Minister, how do the agreements signed in Nigeria reduce poverty and ensure inclusive growth?
Question 3: What is Nigeria’s foreign policy today ?
OLD MENTALITY, SAME RESULTS
In the era of colonialism, the strategy was:
I will take your raw materials (low value) and give you my finished goods (high value). I take your palm oil, mahogany and rubber and give you my soap, tyres, and gin. This reduced the people to dependents and created a consumption mindset, for foreign imported products.
In 2017, Nigeria’s biggest export to the United Kingdom was crude oil; UK biggest export to Nigeria was refined petroleum, which is produced from crude oil.
In 2016, Nigeria’s export to China included mostly oil, gas, and rough wood and amounted to $953m. In 2016. Nigeria import from China amounted to $13bn. Machinery, Cars, Electronics, Smartphones, and Steel.
Ships bring products to our shores and leave empty.
ENTER CHINA
2000 years ago, Chinese silk was traded from China to Rome, East to West. This was the ancient silk route. Now it is being revived. President Xi Jinping has announced a brand new trade corridor that expands this route covering land and sea; One Belt One Road. A proposed investment outlay of up to $8 trillion for a vast network of energy, transportation, telecommunication infrastructures linking 68 countries to China. This is the center of China’s new foreign, economic and security policies to become number one, and stay there.
To further this ambition, China has dangled incredible loans for infrastructure projects with attractive rates to participating nations. African nations have since signed up to these ‘no strings attached’ funds, without a feasible payback plan. Most of these loans will go to vanity projects or getting the president ‘of the day’ re-elected.
After approving a number of ambitious infrastructure projects, Sri Lanka government was indebted to China to the tune of $8bn, spending 80% of its revenue to service this debt. It has since signed over new Chinese built port in Hambantota, to China on a 99-year lease for the . This port is now a naval base.
In Africa, Djibouti, and Zambia are in the exact same position.
By the end of December 2017, the Debt Management Office (DMO) disclosed that Nigeria had total indebtedness of $3.22bn to China. Since then more loans have been negotiated such as the $3.5bn Mambila Hydro Electricity Power loan, and recently a $328m loan for ICT infrastructure. This is coming on the background in which $322m of the funds returned from Switzerland was distributed to ‘poor households’.
NO FREE LUNCH
Coming back to this ICT loan. Chinese President Xi Jinping aims to turn China into a “cyber-superpower”, through innovation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and robotics.
Question 4: By building this ICT infrastructure with Chinese equipment, how does Nigeria maintain a secure independent network?
Lastly, there is no free lunch. I wonder what collateral Nigeria had to offer for these loans, as we only have Oil, Gas, natural resources, and the port in Lagos.
Nigeria and Africa need to be wary of the influence of foreign policies on our development and interests.
We must constantly ask ourselves:
1. Is this the best deal for me?
2. How will this decision affect our future generations?
A one-sided agreement that supports foreign industries, jobs and economic growth is a bad deal.
As a great woman once said, “No deal is better than a bad deal”
How do we eliminate extreme poverty and create 2m jobs annually?
We need to focus on inclusive industrial development and manufacturing.
Like China, we need a policy of grandeur of what we really want Nigeria to be in the next 100 years,” and a clear 5 year programme of national development, with annual assessment.
I will explore this and more in our next article on Industrialization in Nigeria.
CONCLUSION
As we prepare to vote in February 2019, I urge you to actively participate in our democracy.
Come out and vote for a candidate that has the capacity and vision to do the job and shows respect for the rule of law, human lives, civil liberties, and sovereignty of the people of Nigeria . Then we will not need to involve our international ‘allies’ who may have contrasting interests.
NIGERIA 2069 Dream: Imagine if we manufacture Cars, Ships, Planes, and Electronics. Building world-class software and a thriving entertainment and digital media industry that not only creates content to excite but also to educate. Imagine a Hyperloop train service that can get you from Lagos to Cairo in 20mins. Imagine solar panels in the arid regions of northern Nigeria, generating abundant clean energy. Imagine we cure Cancer and Sickle Cell. Just Imagine!
UPDATE
You can read other articles on Nigeria and Africa: Nigeria EndSars Protest, Solar Energy Nigeria Series, Nigeria YouWin Scheme, and Africa.
